Poland bets on Russian oil again

I didn't ask him because this stuff is too difficult for me. I would be intimidated by the complexity of investors' language. But can you explain in a plain English what he means?

Librarius Right I will give it a go, I might not be spot on, i used to watch films where they would talk about pork belly futures so i investigated it.

What you are doing is speculating on the future price of a commodity like pork bellies, so in effect a investor bets on buying a farmers future pig production, the farmer gets paid he uses the money to feed and grow the pigs and buys a nice car, once the pigs are killed and turned into bellies they are the property of the investor. so two things can happen at this point

1 the market pork belly price has gone up since the investor bought the piglets .. he makes a big profit and buys a bigger car.

2 The market price goes down and the investor poops his pants.

so

The future price is superseded by the current price at the point of sale.

Ahh left something out , sometimes the farmer does not get paid up front, but he has a contract in his hand that shows he will be paid a price in the future, he can go to the bank and borrow against this note.

sorry not sure if i am off topic now , but i guess we are talking about betting on oil so can the mod please edit pork bellies for oil ...sorry

It seems that its the third time that polishinvestor is explaining this to pweeg and delphiandomine. Looks like they do not understand the posts or do not read them at all.


Possible German sanctions against Poland are much more dangerous than this supposed and blown out of proportion overpayment to Russia

R.U.R. You know the saying, horses and water...
Either that or they must be teachers, as they find it very hard to listen.

Or maybe I think the statement that 'future prices always go up' is self evidently wrong, stupidly so. Look up Contango and backwardation here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract#Pricing_via_expectation . Its available in Russian

" teachers, as they find it very hard to listen" tell me about it my history teacher in the uk said that Germany strarted WWII, I pointed out that the Russians also attacked Poland, he wouldn't have it, he taught us that the Russians were our allies during WWII,

But moving on I do not think it is a bad thing for Poland to make more tentative steps towards a normal trading relationship with Russia, the oil contract maybe the start. EU allowing of course.

Future price are always higher, thats what I said. Not that they always go up. Those are two different statements. Future price contain a premium for holding the contract and this decays over time. Arguing against this is "stupid"

Vestor man is right "Future price are always higher" No pork belly farmer would ever sell his future less than the current market price. Quid pro porkey

You cannot go back in time you know. Today, the Pork Belly farmer has nothing to sell, he is agreeing a price for the point in future when he does. It can be mor

re or less than todays price.
(missposted)

Both the long term future and the short term future prices can be higher and they can be lower.


If the short term future price would always go up then the long term future would always go up as well but as a means of short term prices during the time of the whole period of time you measure the long term future price - that's elementary.


Here you are using technical terms. What is premium? What is contract? And what it is that decays over time. Why do you get into the technicalities of that sort? I do not understand that.

OK, PWEEG I'll read it .... in Russian tomorrow, thanks, or maybe some time in the near future but that does not change the fact that I'm more Polish than some vociferous "defenders" of Polish

security, remember it, please.

The part I find interesting is how food prices sky rocketed over the last few years.
It was blamed on high oil prices because it took gas and oil to make fertilizer, run tractors to cultivate, plant, and harvest, to manufacture seeds, to make energy to run the machinery, to truck and transport the products..........everything went back to the high cost of oil rational.

All forms of transportation, farming, food, electricity, heat, etc. all blamed on the rise in the price of oil.
Now that oil has dropped by over 50% why doesn't our necessities such as transportation, food, heating and electricity bills drop by 50% ?
A plane ticket to Poland still cost $1500 from Chicago.
Can I look forward to having it drop 50% in the near future ?
Why not ?

Its clear we are talking about oil. And at a price which is towards historical lows the market is in contango and taking the view that future prices will be higher, underlined by futures contracts over the next 2 years. Usually the oil market is in contango given storage costs, but when market is excessively high, future price exhibit backwardation, where the futures prices is below the spot price. Since we are towards the bottom of the historical range, the market is pricing in a higher future price and any deals done on oil delivery is going to be based on market estimates. Anything else is speculation and doesnt fall under the prudent approach to budgeting that most governments stick to.

Johnny Reb, a commoditys price tends to hold up or go up if its in demand ie if people are buying the commodity. Food is something the world as a whole cannot do without and so on the whole food prices have stayed firmed. Youve got stuff like cocoa which has gone up loads in the last year whole pork has gone down a bit, but taken as a whole, firm. Now look at stuff like copper aluminium iron, all of that is down roughly 50% in the last year. Chinas growth was behind the boom in commodity prices over the past decade. They claim growth is slowing from 8% a couple of years ago to around 6% this year, partly as they move from a manufacturing to service based economy. So they'll be needing less of the above mentioned stuff. The slack is supposed to be taken up by the growth in other economies in the world and that what people are waiting for.

As for heating costs etc, you are paying a lot of taxes within the price, for example petrol in poland (i filled up today at 4.05zl for 98octane) is about 3zl in taxes and other fixed charges.

Is that for a liter or per U.K. gallon ?
I paid less then $2 USD (8 zloty) per U.S. gallon (3.79 liters) today.
My LP (Liquid Propane) gas to heat my home with is about $1 USD (4 zloty) per U.S. gallon (3.79 liters) or 2 zloty per liter.
I heat mostly with wood that I cut off my property however which is free if you don't count my time.
No wonder the people of Poland are at the mercy of Russia.


Over the years China has stock piled the above mention beyond belief.


I would have to disagree with that as food has spiked in the U.S. in the last couple of years.
What percentage has it gone up in Poland in the last two years ?

Most of it is tax, though - around 70-75% of the total cost at the minute is tax. There are minimum tax rates in the European Union, and Polish fuel is at the minimum possible from what I remember. It's the cheapest in the European Union and cheaper than a lot of other non-EU countries too.

Polish people of all political persuasions also do not support terrorisn (except the turkish of this Forum, like Delph, Jon, Harry and you) and would approve to NOT buy oil from Saudi anymore.


Hi Johnny.

I think that they already felt a lot. I can find tickets (round trip) from ORD to WAW for a bit more than 700 USD.

Does anyone here think that the current oil market price is being deliberately manipulated against the interests of Saudi and Russia ?

The Saudi's are definitely trying to damage Russia (as well as Iran and the frackers) by cutting the oil price. Its War.

With the oil price still firmly below the $50 price of this deal, now is the time to procute whoever signed this deal.

[moved from]

Woot Woot Iranian oil coming to Poland!!!

I bet this the Israelis are really mad that more money will make its way to the Quds Force, Hezbollah, etc. Hail to the Anti-Zionist, Anti-Western, Anti-Salafi Shia/Russian/Chinese axis!!!

/1/12/Artykul/355131,Tanker-with-Iranian-oil-on-way-to-Poland

Like re-export of Polish apples to Russia via Serbia, Poland also can buy Russian gas and oil via Serbia. Serbia have contract with Russia that can sell it to third sides.

So, its no secret that Poland have access to Russian gas and oil, this way or another.

Merged:

Russia abandoning Ukraine, leaving it to Ukrainians and Poland ?

Now this is interesting. Serbian media just reporting that Russia signed major strategic deal with Turkey regarding pipelines and streams and that Russia leaving Ukraine. Soon enough there would be English link to news.

Turci popustili: Rusko zbogom Ukrajini... / Turks agreed: Russian good-bye to Ukraine /
source: b92/biz/vesti/srbija.php?yyyy=2018&mm=05&dd=27&nav_id=1397376

To those who don`t understand, let me clarify. Energy is everything. That is why EU pushed for Ukraine, to control major gas/oil distribution line in Europe. For other reasons too but energy was direct reason for move. Sure, that is why Russia defended her presents Ukraine, beside other reasons.

So, Russia now compensated Ukraine for other ways of transportation. Have new deals. What that mean? It means that Russia now don`t mind if ethnic Ukrainians and also Poland controls transportation routes in what is now Ukraine. Sure, Russia protected minimum of her interests by claiming Crimea, at least.

Just, question is, if Russia allows for this development, would western Europe allow to Poland to expand her influence. Would western Europe allow Poland to expand her influence ?