It is unlikely for PiS to win outright, even though Kaczyński says he is aiming for that goal.
This is exactly why PiS are doomed to fail with Kaczynski. He has little to no understanding of political strategy - and I suspect that without Ziobro helping him, the party is even less likely to be able to form a viable coalition.
But, so far, if I recall correctly, since 1989 no party has been able to rule alone and have a parliamentary majority.
Correct. The best ever performance was 41% as far as I remember.
But if PiS got 38% of the vote in the 2015 election (and it could well get more!) and PSL got 12 (PSL will team up with anyone to stay in power!), then they could form a coalition government.
They could, but PiS have been very vocal in the past about the PSL - Kaczynski said some bad things about them, and they were accused of many things. The PSL without Pawlak are also incredibly weak - so 12% would seem to be unachievable for them. I'm also not convinced that PSL voters would be happy with coalition with PiS (with Kaczynski as leader).
Other results might be: PO 27%, SLD 15%, Palikot 6%.
That would be a disaster for PO, yet - I think you're actually right in saying that this is possible. I don't think PO have much of a chance of forming another two-party coalition after the next election, but a deal very well might be done in terms of pushing a liberal economic agenda and refraining from social issues.
Even if the PO teamed up with SLD, it would have only a 42% coalition. That would cause great ferment in the PO ranks amongst Solidarity-rooted, anti-communist or otherwise conervative voters.
Absolutely. It's been mooted that PO/SLD could form an electoral coalition, but it would certainly be controversial. It's worth pointing out that PO do have quite a few conservative voters that hate Kaczynski (and thus vote PO as a result).
As it stands, already many PO voters feel 'warm tap water' Tusk is burnt out.
Tusk isn't finished yet. Remember, Tusk is seen as the glue in PO - he somewhat successfully managed to bridge conservative and liberal voters. In fact, this assumption by the oppositon that Tusk is finished is very, very dangerous - they're making the same assumption as in 2007 - that they will win and that Tusk is no threat.
I've said it many times before and I'll say it again - PiS will never win an election again as long as Kaczynski rules the party. When he goes? Interesting times. Remember, people like Gowin absolutely despise Kaczynski and the people that he surrounds himself with (Macierewicz et al) - but they don't have any issue with normal Catholic-Socialist individuals.