If UK votes to leave the EU - what repercussions for British people living in Poland?

If the UK votes to leave the EU what repercussions do you think there will be for British people living in Poland?
Also, do you think Polish people in the UK will be asked to leave and come back to Poland?

EU is failure in any case. Ship that sunk. But, it is interesting that rats always escaping first. See, its English historical role.

Referendum is likely June 23 (assuming this months EU summit passes as expected) and likely to be a 56-60% vote to leave. Those already in the UK, settled with passports, it wont make too much of a difference. UK is a pretty soft touch with an everyones a winner policy on just about every level, so its unlikely people will be shipped out en masse. It may be on the lines that those with no offer for work will be given a stated amount of time to leave, while those with a work offer will be given a visa for the length of their contract.

Thatcher was never keen on a full blown EU marriage, she preferred the UK to be the bit on the side with benefits. EU nations are stuck with each, but the UK has ties with the USA, Hong Kong (China) and India and is better suited, as far as its concerned, outside of the EU mishap. Those that believe the UK will disappear down a chasm if it leaves the EU are mistaken. Trade arrangements can be made but the UK makes the EU stronger, with the UK in it, the EU becomes less stable. Of course there would be some initial interruptions and setbacks, but therein lies the opportunity.

The effect of Brexit on Poland itself will be more significant. The UK is funding billions of Euros of Polands EU subsidy. I cannot see any other country offering to pickup the lost funding.

14 billion Euros

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3154628/Britain-punished-outpacing-Europe-contributions-Brussels-leap-3-1billion-five-years.html

It's the Mail, so it may be, or maybe not be correct

None, I think. We'll almost certainly see a deal done with the EU to keep full freedom of movement, with perhaps only a bureaucratic requirement similar to what existed between 2004-2011. It's just unthinkable that all the Brits in Spain would return home, for instance - the UK doesn't want all those criminals returning as well ;)


The only thing I can see happening is that anyone caught committing a crime from Poland (or from France, whatever) will be immediately deported if it results in jail time.


You know, it could well be used as an excuse to renegotiate Poland's funding full stop.

Its possible they use that delicate approach but in such a case there would be zero benefits to those seeking work although those in work may get some in work benefits depending on how long they have been working in the UK. But its all just speculation as nobody has admitted to working on a plan since the governments main line is to stay even though nearly a third of conservatives MP's are likely to vote for an exit going by a survey done not long after Cameron's so called victory with EU negotiations.

I think not. More likely a points based system. What would the point of it all been?


And Spain is going to cut off a valued source of income :-)


Why not we collect them from everywhere else. :-)

In the words of Hugh Cornwell "Something better change". It could be the kick up the arse thatcher gave the country that brought us out the doldrums.

I saw Nigel a couple of weeks ago and he stated categorically that no one was getting thrown out.

No, no chance at all for the reason below. Plus Poland will still be in Schengen (or its successor) so it would be impossible to police, particularly for people who don't need/want to work in Poland.


Way too many and near impossible to enforce. Plus the CBI would oppose it, as would people on the left (and right across the political spectrum).

There's no way that the UK is going to lose a large amount of workers like that easily. There will be controls on claiming benefits and so on (most probably : they will simply demand that you have at least permanent residency in order to use the benefits system) - but there won't be any restrictions. The freedom of movement (both ways) is so well entrenched now that even Brexit wouldn't change much.


The Spanish wouldn't be particularly bothered, as if the Brits left, others would simply replace them.

The biggest problem with Brexit is that Scotland is likely to hold a snap referendum on leaving the UK and staying in the EU - and all the polls suggest that Scotland would vote Yes for independence in that case.

Funny how you say Britain wouldn't want to lose low paid workers that quickly, but Spain wouldn't be bothered about solvent retiring folks uping sticks, of course they will just be replaced, just like those workers you claim won't be.

And all those young Brits going on holiday to Spain spending money that Spain is in desperate need of , why with 1 trillion in debt I doubt it could afford it not too.

Scotland will get its independence in time if we are in the EU or not.

I am voting out, most of the people I know are voting out. But I doubt we will leave because the EU has to be one of the least undemocratic institutions in the world. Business, corrupt government, financial sectors will make SURE it doesn't happen because NO ONE LEAVES the EU.

I thought I made it clear at the bottom with my Nigel comment that it was most unlikely that I thought anyone would be sent home. I think the Spanish would be pretty much devastated. The only thing that might become questionable is land ownership.

And Scotland come on. They are a bit buggered now aren't they. Building an economy on oil that they might have. Ooops! Well that blew up in that parasites Salmond face didn't it. The question might be who they would rather be saved by. The union or the unknown.

I have no doubt we will leave.

It all depends how post-exit UK would behave. Any attempt to impose serious restrictions would be met equally harshly - which is why it doesn't suit anyone for them to be in place. At the end of the day, the UK needs close links with the EU and vice versa, hence why Brexit is rather more likely to be combined with EFTA membership and with it EEA membership. Anyone dreaming of the UK having a similar position to Australia or the USA in relation to the EU is in dreamland, definitely.

Don't forget the little carrot held by the EU - should the UK leave, there's a very high chance that a tax on non-EU financial transactions will be introduced. That'll destroy the City of London overnight.


The oil price is irrelevant - the vast majority are pro-EU and would be rightfully furious if England took the UK out of the EU against their wishes. The SNP are headed for another huge win in the election this year, after all.


Of course, it's assuming that Cameron will actually call a referendum.

The above ramblings show just how much you understand the issue being discussed, you are utterly clueless......Brexit has NOTHING to do with EAA membership, the USA or Australia.

Stick to what you think you can do, teaching kindergarten age kids

What might EAA membership be?

Brexit is largely a false flag anyway. The UK will need to continue in a close relationship with the rest of the EU, and with it comes financial and other responsibilities. Ask the Swiss or Norwegians how much independence they have ;)

As i said previously........utterly clueless.

EAA shhould read EEA, even you should be able to work that out...I appologise to others for my slip up.

The only clueless one is you if you think the UK is going to be able to suddenly go it alone. The world has changed since the 1970's, and anyone that knows anything about the EU knows that they are incredibly tough to negotiate with, hence why Switzerland was forced into Schengen and the Dublin Convention.


Indeed, and British membership is assured. With it comes membership fees, which means paying for Polish structural funds.

If you think the UK can survive outside of the EU and EEA and can negotiate individually with the EU, you're in dreamland. The EU would love nothing more than to destroy the City of London and transfer all that lovely financial business to Frankfurt after Brexit.

That is the biggest misconception that many people back home have.
The reality is that the empire that once was is no more.
The connection and trade that was there with former colonies and commonwealth states does
not measure up anymore. The EU, destination for 51% of British exports, remains the biggest trading partner of the UK and has been
for the last 20 years or so. What the EU has brought to trading in the last 20 years can not be achieved with other countries.
It is far much cheaper to do business with EU countries than it is with say Australia or US.
It is achievable but make no mistakes it will hurt businesses.
Most people will vote for an exit based on the fact that they want EU migration controlled and are not oblivious to
the repercussions it will have on businesses and jobs both in the short and long term future.
There are no contingency plans in place, right now, to cover the trade deficit that might
occur as a result of the exit. Dave and his cronies have no clue, that is why they will urge voters to vote to remain.

France will make sure that we can't have our cake and eat it too with other trade agreements
outside the EU bloc. If I am not mistaken the French and Germans have been very vocal about
any privileges should the UK decide to exit.

There's just no realistic alternative plan. Cameron knows that the EU will make sure that EU capital flows through Frankfurt and not London, which would be a hell of a shock to the UK economy - and the price of keeping the City as the financial centre would be EEA membership, which puts the UK in a less favourable position than before.


Not only those two, but others as well. It's clear that any privileges will have to be paid for, either in cash or in beneficial treaties.

If the EU is so wonderful and beneficial, why do you need to lie?


Trade with the EU countries has been falling year on year. The exports you talk about, include the "Rotterdam effect" which means that those exports which pass through the port are included in the EU's figures, even if they are not offloaded and carry on to Singapore. The UK has a current trading deficit with the EU of 89 Billion a year while it has a surplus of 251 Billion with the rest of the world.

"If I am not mistaken the French and Germans have been very vocal about
any privileges should the UK decide to exit."

If you were going to have to pay out billions of Euros every year because you allowed unlimited immigration into your country and the third biggest contributor to your little club decided they did not want to play anymore, you would get quite vocal as well. Germany has 1 in 6 employed in the car industry, perhaps they will stop selling the Mercs, BMW's and Audi's to the UK. The French farmers will allow their government to ban the sale of fruit and veg to the UK, lets see how long before they riot.

The scare stories are hilarious. No more cheap air travel, safety and security will be compromised (as if letting 1.1 million unchecked migrants have free travel throughout Europe was a good idea). The sky will fall down.

My God, how did we ever manage before we joined the EU. Nobody travelled, nobody worked in other countries, there was no co-operation between law enforcement agencies(except for Interpol which still exists and which still has the power to extradite criminals from non-EU countries).

You are either clueless or you have an ulterior motive for spreading these lies.

Why is Britain supposed to throw the Poles living there out after leaving the EU? It would be completely stupid from the economical point of view to get rid of the cheap workforce.

Not even the "vote leave" campaign are suggesting that. The upheaval would be huge and expensive.

Mind you, the swivel-eyed anti-Europe campaigners are not generally known for common sense or vision...

EU and in particular Germany runs a trade surplus with the UK so a two way trade deal is in their interests. The UK will also be an even greater safe haven against stresses in the EU. Geography and a transparent legal system ensure London is the financial capital of the world, not so much because the UK is in the EU.

It's just not going to happen. There's too many people already in the UK and too many Brits abroad for it to ever happen.

As I said above, I can see a similar deal to Switzerland where they can put a stop to EU-13 citizens while leaving the original EU-15 citizens alone, but nothing else.

Who cares really ? Honest those who cannot meet their needs end and are unable to subside without social help should be kicked out regardless.

That may have been acceptable a couple of years ago but the British public now realise where Mutti will offload her surplus of doctors, scientists, dentists etc, that are illiterate and unemployable. A nice new German passport and a train ticket West to take up the benefits of free movement.

Where it has worked and benefited member nations it should be mentioned in disregard of what ever differences we have of opinions.


And I am sure this can be used to support the notion that we don't need the EU.
There are many factors that affect trade unless you have not been paying attention
to the crises that have been happening recently.That will never change the fact that the EU is still the biggest trading
partner of the UK.


The Rotterdam effect?? What did Labour say to the Tories when they started
touting this around as a way of trying to discredit trade within the EU??
The figure that I gave includes the so called "Rotterdam effect" because noone
believes in that and Economists don't even know to what full extent it has on EU trade.
Many statistical institutes and companies are still giving contrasting data on this.
Some of the exports that go through Rotterdam might not end up in the EU- so what?
Take away all the trade to the Netherlands and ,at 42% to maybe 45%, the EU
still remains the biggest and most important trading partner because of the openness and easiness of the the trade regime with in the bloc.
Where do most of the exports to the USA and Singapore, like you mentioned, end up?
So we should also invent another term for where all the goods end up in those non EU countries?- Please!!
Your figures don't add up at all. Are you using GBP or US?
Trade surplus with non EU countries has never been anywhere close to 251Billion GBP a year.
The surplus for last year, with non EU countries, was close to 50Billion GBP.
Making up large figures won't support your facts.
That figure was the total volume of trade to non EU countries which was supported
by a large growth in the services sector and not a trade surplus.
If you think a large economy like the UK can be sustained by outsourcing and
other services to Asian countries- then think again! By the way, what happens
to the services sector when people's buying power decreases??

To get to your accusations or what ever you wanna call it, I have neither ulterior motive nor am I clueless.
These are facts, as they are, and don't support my actual view on the whole Brexit case in anyway for this is
just an internet forum. If things are as simple as black and white and you choose to see the grey areas-
that is your choice and I can't change that.

The figure that I gave includes the so called "Rotterdam effect" because noone
believes in that and Economists don't even know to what full extent it has on EU trade.

blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100171677/no-prime-minister-the-eu-is-becoming-less-economically-important-by-the-hour/
Trade surplus with non EU countries has never been anywhere close to 251Billion GBP a year.
The surplus for last year, with non EU countries, was close to 50Billion GBP.

251 Billion GBP is 5 year figure. As you agree, 50 Billion GBP per year.

Yearly trade with Germany. Germany exports 84 Billion Euros to the UK against 42 Billion Euros From the UK to Germany. Why would they want a trade war?

If the UK joins the EEA, then it can't happen. The same free movement rules apply as full EU membership

Precisely. And one drawback about being in the EEA is that all the things that eurosceptics dislike about the EU would still be there however the UK wouldn't have any say whatsoever in decision making and certainly wouldn't have their current veto.

That's exactly why the whole Brexit thing is a red herring. The UK in the EEA but not in the EU means no decision making and yet a considerable membership fee.