Poland and the Euro - benefit for Polish economy?

So I heard more talk on the news today about Poland joining the Eurozone by 2015. I was just wondering if it would have a positive impact on the Polish economy or not with all the problems other eurozone countries are having. Also inversely, would it benefit the Eurozone alot by having Poland join in?

Thanks

As it stands, the Zloty/Euro exchange rate is the cause of much instability for importers - quite a lot of companies took heavy losses when the Zloty nosedived a few years ago. So, in that respect, it's a great thing for importers as it removes the risk of currency exchange.

For exporters, it's a double edged sword - they don't have to worry about exchange rate fluctuations, but then they don't benefit from an artificially weak Zloty (like at present) to make their products even more competitive in Europe.

2015 won't happen, but I can see Poland fixing the Zloty exchange rate in the ERM2 mechanism soon after the election next year. The real problem is that there's no good rate for Poland to join at - 3.5 would be great for consumers, but 4 would be better for exporters.

As for the Eurozone benefiting - of course. Poland's economy is stable, growing and represents a huge market. Remove the currency exchange risk and it's a huge market just waiting for foreign companies.

If you get the chance to vote for it, turn it down. The Irish got to vote on it, said yes and now we have no control over anything. The German's get to see our budget's before the public. The price of everything will go up. It would also mean a lot of Kantor's could be in trouble, no more ccy change for most european's.

Which makes sense given that you loaned a considerable amount of cash from them.


Not necessarily. Much of those increases were shown later to be a myth, and furthermore, simple preparation along the lines of what Estonia and Slovakia did (mandate dual pricing for a considerable time before and after) put a stop to any speculative increases.

Hi Ya Delphiandomine

One of the reason's why the EU had to bail us out was because when we got rid of our punt, the irish banks could access all the euro's they wanted. But anyway, we learned our lesson I think.

We have learned our lesson? Fianna Fail, the party that oversaw the meltdown of the Irish economy are currently the most popular political party in the country (pew poll).

The Irish are one of the thickest ethnicities in Europe and suffer from Stockholm syndrome.

Wanna run a country - just do the opposite to the Irish.

And avoid the Euro like the plague.

Of course, it got rid of a small, unpopular currency on the markets and replaced it with a currency that had international respectability.

Poland on the other hand has intense banking regulation - just because there would be Euro to loan doesn't mean that the Polish authorities would allow it.

So sounds like in theory the Euro in Poland would work but then when you take into consideration the intangible stuff like for example corruption and greediness, mainly on the banks part (LIBOR), it would be tough to work...

It would work just fine, especially as the Polish banking system is highly regulated and features little of the nonsense seen elsewhere.

adopting the Euro is a big mistake, you lose everything Poland. Controlled by the Germans and us in the USA, how can Poland trust an agreement with anyone in respects to its history. Germany, Russia, UK, USA, France, and others.

Forget about it, stand alone and play everyone of those countries against them selves. USA doesn't want to work with you, work with China. Euro neighbors don't want to play, continue relation in Africa and South America. Germany doesn't want to support let them keep bailing out Spain, Italy, Greece and suffer.

Buy Polish mentality, and avoid supporting Multinational Corporations that are not Polish

Focus on building the elite society, of intelligence, strength, and good morals.

Buid the military through pitting Russia, China and the US against one another, yet be loyal to NONE of them. Use there resources for or against them all.

Focus on building the polish population from within to 60 million by 2022-25, not from without first.

How can anyone in the Polish government or society not use the Global Crisis as an example of the benefits of staying out of the Euro, it is clear as day.

VOTE NO or lose everything Poland

sorry for poor grammar

Since...when?

Then again, I guess as an America, you don't see the masses of exports West, do you?


Oh dear. You do realise that there are many products that simply aren't available? I mean, good luck trying to buy Polish microchips...


Except it isn't. The crisis caused the Zloty to collapse - and drove quite a few importers to the wall as a result of unstable exchange rates. I know one company personally that lost something like 150,000CHF in one year because of the currency exchange problems.

I do love when Americans try and tell Poland what to do and what not to do.

It is obvious that the Eu will fall in the near future. Poland would be best to stay put like england and watch the EU fall.

Hey dolphiandomine, your comments are without any educational backing- I would suggest you go post in the polish cooking forum-ha ha

Given that you can't even capitalise the name of the institution properly, I don't think we need to worry about your insights.


The problem is that the United Kingdom is heavily integrated into the EU. Do you not wonder why the City is incredibly wealthy?


Sorry, but people in glass houses shouldn't be throwing stones.

delphiandomine


Black and Greens organic chocolate, that is all I see form Poland, I want to see more


You can't make everything but should focus on those industries that produce a middle class lifestyle. Ok, china is making that for pennies, I get it, then you don't want those jobs anyway. But that is what you get in the global market, investment goes to the cheapest bidder. That is how the your Politicians are selling Poland. Our workers make less and we will give you tax breaks. I hate that thinking.


The Zl gets weaker and the importers got spooked? Why? they are killing it at the Kantor, right? Weaker ZL should pull move investment into Poland not less, as long as prices don't change much


There is nothing wrong with loving Americans,

I do not write to tell anyone what to do. The EU doesn't give a crap about Poland. Poland has more to lose than to gain. What are you going to do be controlled by Germany and play by their rules? Yeah like any Pole wants that. Or is Poland going to give up its strengthening position to help Greece, Spain, Italy pay down their debt.

Let Germany finance that crap they wanted, America has added Germany in this mess as well to keep it going. Forget all of them, Use them from the fringe.

Poland must return 34.4 million euros of funds earmarked from the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to the European Commission. -

Why do you need things like this Poland? Return this and that, it is a joke.......EU is a joke

I agree with your posts, Poland should give back all that it has taken from the EU and should emulate Norway or Switzerland. Keep the EU at arm's length.

With the other hand cocked back ready to strike......

At what rate are these pay backs in interest and time? At what point do they put a country in so much debt that they are colonized like Africa and poor South American nations?

That's the objective, look at Greece, they are owned. These financial bandits will know every structural weakness you have and exploit it, it is only a matter of time that they control you from the outside. Please do not let it happen.

Many conspiracy theories point to the death of your President in 2010, being one that would bring you close to total commitment to the EU and adopting the euro, do you find this true? or was it Russia Terrorist?

At some point banks started replacing stores and other small businesses in locals. I often see places where there were various stores and now there are banks. And there's more and more banks and less and less normal businesses.

What we are seeing is the liberal economic system in action. According to liberalism all wealth is created by trade, production is 'reactionary'. Banking has a higher profit margin, more money for the gubmint to spend on welfare or wars. You end up with a bunch of guys sitting in a circle exchanging pieces of paper patting each other on the back meanwhile out in the streets starving children are begging or trying to catch small rodents for a bit of protein to feed their families for another day.

Euro zone in a nutshell.

Should Poland convert to the Euro?

Simple mental exercises.

The first is, when it comes to questions of finance and work ethic and paying taxes, is Poland closer to

A. Germany and the Netherlands?

B. Greece, Spain and Italy?

That's because you're thousands of miles away and you have absolutely no idea what is being sold in Western Europe.


And what industries in Poland can produce a middle class lifestyle? Don't forget that the middle class lifestyle is mostly based upon services - which can cause the economic ruin of a country when demand for those services dry up. As for Polish politicians, can you even name one?


No, they aren't killing it. Importers must sign a contract to buy x product at y price in CHF, EUR or USD. An unpredictable exchange rate causes huge problems for importers and exporters.


Yawn. That's why the EU has handed out another 100 billion Euro to Poland, right? That's why Poland is full of huge EU funded projects, right?


Only an American would say that - because you have no idea how the EU helps us in ordinary life.


Do you know anything about how the European Union works? No?


There are clear rules about the usage of such funds. Poland only has herself to blame if she couldn't get the paperwork right. Anyway, 34 million Euro is a small drop in the ocean compared to what Poland got at the same time.


Except both of those countries are obliged to take part in many EU institutions without having a voice - Norway pays around a billion Euro a year, Switzerland was obliged to adopt a lot of EU law - in short, they have to pay without having a vote. It's a normal thing for the uneducated to claim that the Norwegians/Swiss have a good deal - they don't.


What are you on about? These funds are not to be "paid back", they are grants. EU structural funds cannot put a country in debt!


They have no-one to blame but themselves. A simple analysis of Greece shows that they were spending money for years that they didn't have.


Perhaps you should learn what the Constitutional role of the Polish President is first before making comments like that. Here's a hint - the President has no real bearing on issues such as political alignment.


Arguably B, heading towards A - Euro entry would probably speed up such a transition.

Regardless what the pro-globalists, one-worlders and EU super-state advocates claim, the fact remains that voters in the UE's biggest and richest country, Germany, want the euro scrubbed and the Deutschmark returned. An Emnid poll found that 51 per cent of Germans believed their economy would be better outside the 17-member eurozone while just 29 per cent said it would be worse off.

blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidhughes/100173263/german-voters-want-the-deutschmark-back-how-much-longer-can-the-euro-survive

Of course, how many of those realise that it was Germany that lent most of the cash to Spain, Greece, etc?

That article is also more than a year old.

So you are assuming that at present 75% of Germans would root for the euro? The opposition to the euro is even greater in Poland, if I recall.

The point is -- is it worth entering a zone that may well collapse in the foreseeable future?
Then the countries that wisely remained outside it will avoid the chaos and confusion of restoring the national currency.

It is unlikely to completely collapse - yes, some members may end up leaving, but it is highly unlikely that countries such as France, Germany, Belgium and so on will leave. The economies are just too connected to return to national currencies. Not to mention that several currencies were more or less pegged to the DM anyway.

Even the Swiss Franc is more or less pegged to the Euro at the minute.

Good post

LOL,The banking derivatives market in a nutshell, just don't forget the pharmacies too! That is america, banks and pharmacies, and mix in a walmart, Home depot, and Mcdonalds, because that is what is affordable for the mass population. It is a fake economy on paper, always has and will be. Just figure out how to rig it. China is figuring it out. Faking the numbers, the whole 9 yards. Wealth is created by manipulation of money and paper investment in the stock market.


We have this thing called the internet which allows anyone anywhere to look up statistics on imports and exports from every country in the world. You can even go to the actual website of their government and look up the action of the government or their agenda. Like this w w w paiz gov pl/en !!!!!!!

I can read Poland news everyday (which I do), follow the Warsaw markets (which I don't do)

I can even look up politicians names like Tusk or Komorowski. I try to know a little about the PIS and the PO parties. I don't know a lot at this time but some things.

I don't know how a contract that favors me as an importer no matter what the rate causes a proplem. Exporters yes, I can see that. But not a seller making money. That would encourage me to sell more, helping my business. Having the ability to have your own currency gives advantages that if used correctly gives you a huge advantage. Where do you think those exports to Western Europe are coming from? Cheap Zloty exchange. I lived well in Poland when I visited and loved it. I spent more money because of that Zloty. I made more expensive choices, not so much in Germany thank you. I was down 22% from the ATM machine. VAT killed me on top of that.

EU grants you will pay back, maybe not in money, but other ways, that is the trick, wake up........I loan you money and want nothing back, get real, what world is that? No where!

Didn't that open the door for a more pro Euro politician? NO?


I can name two. Tusk and Komoroski, I do my best, in USA we don't follow the Constitution, we have one, but it is not followed much.

In USA, it is jobs in finance, medicine, law, education, technology, energy, construction, which feed the retail entertainment, and service industries. There is a lot of competition in the later so not everyone wins big and some fail. Corporations dominate. Where is the Global Poland business organizations? I need to see this soon. You have a great Electronic Bussing company Solaris. That idea in the USA would be huge. That would save local public schools mountains of money.

More companies like Solaris is what Poland needs more of. That will be the key.

If I am polish government alcohol and tobacco get taxed through the nose or outlawed, eating healthy and advanced education accomplishments get financially rewarded. Incentive driven growth.

It's good that people not living here tell us how to live.
Thanks poster, really great advice. Have a wonderful day.

Just think - people like that can get the right to vote in national elections, while we can't.

Incidentally, wasn't Hitler a huge health freak?

Most of them can't actually (as their parents won't get Polish citizenship). Besides, the EU will soon be putting a stop to that particular bit of nonsense. Make sure you don't vote in the EU elections for anybody who isn't on board when it comes to that particular fact.


I see what the main problem here is: you have no idea what EU grants are or what they are for.

Do you think he understands what the CAP is and why it exists?

roads and clean water?

Thank goodness for that, because you might vote the Tusk clique back into power. There are enough misguided and deluded Poles about, hence such foreign aid is not needed.