How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy

The current IMF forcast for the EU countries for 2011/12 is not good news for Poland. Can I ask for comments from people who may be effected ie people in business/people buying and selling homes and of course people working in private companies who may need to down size. This is a serious topic please no trolls.

Please provide a source of your information.

Sorry but I think this post is not for you, you don't have to be a Rhodes Scolar to work out that France/Italy/Germany are in dire trouble. I don't think Poland is buried in gold. Please refer to the IMF home page for forcast.

If you don't want a discussion don't post in a public forum. As you have, provide some sort of information to backup your claim and question.

I disagree with the notion that Poland's economy is in any kind of gloom.

Poland's GDP scored a real growth rate of 3.8% in 2010, and GDP per capita grew from $17,800 in 2008 to $18,800 in 2010, both values quoted in 2010 dollars (sources: CIA - The World Fact Book).

Furthermore, Poland's economy is the only one in EU that continued to grow from 2009 to 2010 (source: Wikipedia)

Also, according to IMF's 2011 World Economic Outlook, Poland's GDP (constant prices % change yeah on year) for 2010 is 3.8% and for 2011 is estimated at 3.81% and will not go below 3.6% by 2015. This is better than the following countries:

USA: 2010: 3.03%, 2011: 1.53% (est.) and 2015: 3.43% (est.)

Germany: 2010: 3.56%, 2011: 2.73% (est.) and 2015: 1.3% (est.)

UK: 2010: 1.35%, 2011: 1.14% (est.) and 2015: 2.65% (est.)

Canada: 2010: 3.22%, 2011: 2.08% (est.) and 2015: 2.39% (est.)

Czech: 2010: 2.35%, 2011: 1.18% (est.) and 2015: 3.19% (est.)

You cannot compare these figures to countries dependant on Oil/Gas (like Persian Gulf countries and Russia) or 3rd world countries with an average per capita income of less than half of that for Poland (such as China and India).

It all depends on which data you look at and how you look at it. But even IMF can be (and has been) wrong.

You are talking probably about this: imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx

Taking into account problems of our main trading partners this is not bad forecast. GDP is growing, slowly, but unemployment rate stays more or flat, inflation is low and stable, investments are growing, savings too. It looks like there is a few stable years ahead among the storm. Few things I don't like is current account balance or general government gross debt, though if in 2016 debt would stay below 55% of GDP it would be positive still.

To sum things up, considering the fact that Europe has its "7 thin years period" right now, I like this forecast. But economic forecasts are usually no better than weather forecasts...

Exactly :)

This post is not for you, The current state of the economic crisis is nothing to be laughed at, look at the IMF predictions and then make valid comments

Furthermore, Poland's economy is the only one in EU that continued to grow from 2009 to 2010 (source: Wikipedia)

We are talking about 2012

It's illogical and condescending to compare countries that do not have mass emigration, with Poland. If the sh1t does hit the fan and the Pole abroad have to return home, then Poland can be compared to the core states of Europe. Just because the wealthy countries are in major trouble doesn't mean Poland is sailing; can't compare a house with a big tent.

But IMF says Polish economy will grow around 2.971% (Gross domestic product, constant prices) in 2012.

I mean what is your point?

I too read about the Debt crisis here- liveoncampus.com/wire/show/3053979
Debt crisis is stalling euro-zone economy in the latter of 2011

Poland is likely to do better than most places
Shale oil fracking will decrease the dependence on Russian gas
and wind farming is starting to take off finally

the bankrupt shipyards are being used for wind turbine production

as for the Poles returning from abroad
you are better off on the dole in the UK and particularly Ireland
than you would be jobless in Poland, particularly if your kids are settled in the local schools

what Poland needs to do is to stop pensioning off civil servants in their late forties

However, is it not generally the case that more or less all prices have increased and continue to increase relatively dramatically in recent years while wages/salaries stay static?

No they don't unemployment benefits and prospects for a new job are far better in the UK if you are mobile.


Stop posting on this website if you don't want to follow the rules. i.e provide evidence.


He is a Troll

exactly


But, many will want to return home over time,especially if the dole is slashed to the extent that home may not look so bad. Also, the Polish economy will need someone to pay for their elderly in the not so far future.

Well that will never happen in the UK. Its very low as it is, but far better than Poland. Poland's dole is almost nothing, how can that ever be attractive?

The German job market has just opened to Poles, there is few that will go there, but emigrant's will have more options to Poland, not less.

This is a public forum, therefore the post is for everyone, stop sitting in your ivory tower looking down on everyone that may not agree with you, I am sitting here with facts and links, that will support Poland in 2012, please show your hand and provide a link or start the debate with facts and figures.

Poles are telling me that much foodstuff and many mundane consumer items are now equally priced or sometimes even more expensive in Poland than in Ireland. At broadly speaking one quarter of Irish salaries, and if the trend continues, I would imagine that many Poles especially those who currently straddle poverty and relative comfort, will simply not be able to afford to live in Poland at some stage.

All the growth and outlook in the world won't matter then.

True and even if it's halved in Ireland,it will still be high in Polish terms.


Very true. The rising costs of food and fuel in Poland and the effects on disposable income/economy.

"The country, however, is not without economic problems. Deficit is still at 7% of the GDP, the EU only allows 3%. The budget is spinning out of control because the country is spending a lot. On the other side the government is not getting enough money from taxes because companies always find ways of not paying them.

Much of the growth comes from money that the European Union gives Poland. Economic experts fear that when aid comes to an end the economic boom could also be over."

english-online.at/news-articles/business-economy/poland-a-european-success-story.htm

We must not forget this. Poland's had a good couple years but so would any country that had bucketfulls of somebody else's money falling from the sky into their pockets. When the EU starts to suffer, so will Poland. That's how socialism works.

The EU is not socialist. Are you are one of those bonkers Americans who think any government spending is Socialist?

Giving money to build infrastructure is a good investment that will be repaid even when the investment stops. Poland really needs more and better roads and other transport links which the EU is half funding.

EU investment in Ireland and Spain massively increased their GDP to the point where they will be able to pay into the EU.

We must always remember that Poland came through the last economic crisis relatively unscathed. Therefore, it cannot really be the case that Poland is in such a deep lull.

Remember one golden point here. The economists, as the experts, often hold different views. Just think about that.

Peterweg wrote:


Call it what you want but when a large union of countries have a few superpowers continuously dumping their money into weaker economies....that's socialism. Good or bad, happy or sad.....that's what it is.

Also, when a european country has the best GDP growth of all the countries in europe while it simultaneously benefited the most from EU cash handouts.....that's not a coincidence.

Plenty of people claim that Poland would have been better off staying on their own....maybe so, but the reasons for Poland's growth over the past couple years cannot be denied, whether the EU was/is/will be ultimately a bad choice for Poland or not, in the end. I guess what I'm trying to say is, can you honestly say that without all that EU cash (as well as the other foreign investment it brought in as a result) that Poland would have put up the same numbers last year? I'm glad to see Poland doing well....but let's call a spade a spade.

Peterweg wrote:



pure speculation. you're playing fortune teller. statements like these hardly support your side of the argument. i hope you're right, i hope it all pulls through and that money props them up long enough for them to get their $hit together.....but you're still speculating. these countries have received plenty of financial aid before, yet we're still looking at failing economies.


You've got the wrong guy. I'm a supporter of a lot of socialist programs. In today's day and age, in our current economy, they're necessary. I'm hardly a hardcore capitalist or cough! cough!......republican.

Remember one thing the economists, and the experts must toe the party line, if they want future contracts.

In 1999 a waitress in my friend's cafe in Poland earned 5 zl/hr and a coffee cost 5 zl. Today the waitress still earns 5 zl/hr and now coffee is 6. So a person has to work over an hour to buy a stinking cup of coffee? Wouldn't this make you gloomy? Where are the statistics to cheer that person up?

Really? You're friends with people who exploit their workers, seeing as the minimum wage is actually much higher than that?

Silly of you to leave it to members.


I could say sth but I don`t care in the same way you don`t.


So why did you start it in such a stupid way?

Really? What's the minimum wage for a waitress? And let's not assume that all restaurant owners are paying ZUS for all their workers.

Minimum wage is the same regardless of age - 1387zl a month, based on a 40 hour work week. It's certainly more than 5zl/hour, especially given that no-one in Poland is declaring income from tips.

Thanks for responding Pawian, it would be good if you stopped attacking the messenger and start giving examples/facts, my interest in this topic refers to a IMF global forecast and a article in thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/54175,Budget-shortfall-for-2012 I think forum members are pretty much switched on and aware of articles on the global financial crisis. Lets not live amongst the fairies and assume Poland will not be effected in a second downturn, the question I was trying to pose is how it will effect people in various industries, my particular interest is the building sector. my mention of trolls was tongue in cheek, sorry but sometimes people have there own agenda, its a serious topic.