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Posts by Timek  

Joined: 13 Apr 2010 / Male ♂
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From: Limerick, Ireland
Speaks Polish?: Troche
Interests: languages, aviation, martial arts, mountains, swimming, cycling, history

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Timek   
14 Apr 2010
News / Is it possible that Polish president was assasinated? If so then, by whom? [921]

FACTS:

Mostly opinions and conjecture.

FACT NO.1. Fog, even snow, ice and very bad weather is current in northern countries.
There are THOUSANDS of planes every day landing on very bad weather conditions.

It's a question of not only the weather, but also the equipment available to navigate in those conditions. Smolensk military base did not have ILS navaids, so with visibility lower than minimum, most planes (and the IL76 before them) would divert rather than risk crashing.

The radar approach is not something most people would like to do.

If weather can be a cause of accident, then we would have all over the world
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PLANE CRASHES EVERY SINGLE DAY.

There are plenty of plane crashes every day. They don't all make international news. Here in Ireland we had a fatal plane crash the day after Kasczynski's plane.

Also the Mirosławiec crash 2008 , I don't think made the news in Ireland.

FACT NO.2. Polish people are a nation of complainers. They like to be considered victims,
to cry and to complain. This is their national culture.

That's your opinion. It's a label a lot of nations get.

FACT NO.3. The russians lied until now about almost everything: they claimed that the
polish pilot could not speak russian, and other many lies.

The media are not Russian authorities nor are they a court, they rush to get headlines and accuracy is not first priority if there is no great risk of being sued.

FACT NO.4. All people present in Smolensk that day told that it was good nice weather.
Online weather website show that the temperature was between 7 and 18 degrees Celsius that day. Planes all over the world land without any problems on minus 20 degrees most of the winter in the northern countries, on total fog, and on an icy landing strip without any problems.

ATC Weather report I was referred to, said 1'C with 98% humidity. IL 76 diverted due to poor visibility, people on the ground and cameras show fog later on, and while possible to land in fog, it's usually cos the airport has good ILS equipment.

FACT NO.5. Polish pilot spoke perfect Russian and English. Captain Arkadiusz Protasyuk landed on the same airport three days earlier

Perhaps with much better weather.
Timek   
14 Apr 2010
News / Is it possible that Polish president was assasinated? If so then, by whom? [921]

According to Webster Tarpley, who doesn't think that it's likely that it was anything but an accident btw, that it was the 4th attempt. The plane had dumped it's fuel.

Dumping fuel isn't necessarily a sign of distress. Tarpley may not have the best info on this, if he thinks there were 4 landing attempts rather than two.

When the full flight data is known it might turn out that the pilot dumped fuel to reduce the landing weight of the plane, which would also allow for a slower approach speed and better braking on a wet (due to fog) and not very long runway.

How much fuel he dumped won't be known yet, and it would be interesting to know if he had enough fuel to divert to alternate airport in case of aborted approach.

As for Fog, remember that looking down on fog or up at it from below isn't a great indicator of how thick it looks when flying through it horizontally.

The pilots surely were advised of the weather before descent (reportedly 1'C, with light tailwind and very high humidity... so thick fog was a risk.

The CVR file (or transcript of it) will be very interesting if made public.
The Pilot's attitude to the weather, and prospects of making an approach without good visibility or any ILS systems at the airport will form a major part of the investigation.

Any settings or warnings of the GPWS will be of interest,
and of course if there is any demand / instruction to the crew to land despite the weather.

This whole tragedy could be down to misadventure, the combination of several factors reducing the safety of the flight.