Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]

Im Irish so Ill try to answer that - Over the past 10 years Ireland has experienced a massive boom. Most people are of the opinion that it has been very beneficial for the country as there is a lot more wealth about the place which wasnt there before. This has resulted in a lot of changes in Irish society including an influx of immigrants, many of whom are Poles as you probably know. The problem with the boom has been that it has been lopsided and totally based on construction. Construction now accounts for roughly 25% of Irish GDP and about 15% of all employment. House prices have quadrupled in the same period so much so that many Irish people rather than investing in new businesses have instead invested in property due to the massive returns. As a result we have practically no Irish owned industry. Roughly 90% of the Irish industry is made up of foreign owned firms, many american. House prices have in the past 6 months began to decrease and as a result it now appears that the building boom will soon be over because it is estimated that speculators made up about 40% of all house buyers in 2006.If prices are going down speculators will not enter the market. As construction accounts for 25% of Irish GDP we can assume that it will hit the Irish economy extremely hard over the coming years and many smart people fear the worst. In fact some people I know are already beginning to emigrate or plan to do so over the next couple of years. Due to the house price boom we basically fell into a trap where the economy became a sort of pyramid scheme whereby people just sold houses to each other. Following the recent interets rate rises that is no longer possible. Its not beyond the bounds of possibility that in a few years time many Irish construction workers will be working in Poland. Think thats crazy? Remember less than ten years ago the thought of English or Germans coming to Dublin to work would have been laughed at by Irish people because we were all in their countries filling the low paid jobs. Not anymore. This is how globalisation works. 10 years ago it made sense for americans to set up in Ireland. Low wages, good education system, access to EU. Now it makes sense to set up in Poland or Czech for exactly the same reasons.It is expected that Dell will move most of their Limerick operation to Lodz pretty soon. In 10 years time they will probably be off somewhere else.

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]

Hi JKChambers. I agree that its not possible to compare Ireland and Poland so easily due to the many obvious differences. However, I think it is possible to try and point out the negative side of property speculation which has been rampant here in Ireland for over a decade and would now appear to be catching on bigtime in Poland. When returns on property becomes higher than returns from which may be derived from new business and industry people invariably invest in property. We have seen this in Ireland. Once prices stop going up the boom ends because the investors leave the market. This is what is happening now in Ireland. What are we left with? As far as I can see a big gaping hole in the economy and very little to show for our boom years. I just returned from Poland this evening and every time I go there a new road of some sort has been completed. Look at the state of Irelands transport system and how long it takes to build anything. Its a disgrace. Yes there have been improvements in Ireland but the reality is that there should have been a lot more. IMO some people got rich quick here but the mentality is the same as it ever was and probably will never change. I hope Poland does not go down the same route as Ireland but it is possible. As for the remittances sent back by Polish people I would guess that the amount is massive and is probably not quantifiable because as you have pointed out much of it goes home in peoples pockets.

PS Just in case people think that Im saying that Poland is perfect could I just say that getting through the airport in Warsaw was an absolute nightmare this evening (Etiuda terminal). It was the least organised airport I have ever been in and that includes Havana where the electricity went off! I would hope that when the new terminal is built things will improve. There were families with children coming back to Dublin after being home in Poland and the whole thing was like going into a football match. The queue was out the door and it took an hour and a half to check in. It was also very dangerous with hundreds of people crowded into a tiny terminal. If there was a fire there would be massive casualties. Really awful. Rant over. Sorry!!!!

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]


I think Dee, that you have just hit the nail on the head. There is no logical reason for property to increase in value simply because it is property. When rental yields are unprofitable the only way money can be made on property is through capital appreciation. In a market in which the average person cannot afford to buy and where capital appreciation is non-existent, property would appear to be a losing bet.

Ireland's property market has had its day. I dont know enough about Poland to provide an informed opinion but as many people on this forum are saying, that if the average price of a property is out of reach of the average Polish salary *6 or more, and where renting out a new apartment will obviously not provide a decent return ie IMO decent return = at least 5/6% yield, where is the capital appreciation coming from? I would guess entirely from speculation. That is what we call a lack of fundamentals, and carries all the hallmarks of a bubble. I would describe it as a pyramid scheme of sorts. As I said I know more about Ireland than Poland but based on the comments Ive read on this site things dont sound promising. However the one joker in the Polish pack as I see it is the possible effect from those millions of Poles living abroad. Its possible that if they intend to return to Poland and bring a large amount of capital for investment in property with them they could perhaps keep a genuine demand which may sustain the market.My girlfriend is possibly included in this category. The way things are going in Ireland at least, many Poles will be heading home pretty soon as the work disappears here. Many will probably go to London for the build up to the Olympics but they will be competing with existing workers and what many expect to be a large migration of Irish construction workers to London over the next 12 to 18 months. So possibly after the Olympics there will be the beginnings of a mass return to Poland. Im speculating here and just calling it as I see it but I would be interested in hearing any other views which may educate me further on the Polish situation.

As for Dees point about the western world's shrinking population, it is a very important point when examining potential property price inflation. The wealthier a country gets the less children that people tend to have.The decrease in child bearing often seems to coincide with an increase in economic production. Looking at the examples of Japan, and also Germany, during the recent past this has led to an over supply of properties for a decreasing population. Again, somebody would have to educate me as to the position in Poland, but the laws of supply and demand dictate that prices of a commodity which are increasing in number continually are not guaranteed to increase if the potential market ie people is decreasing. The opposite is in fact the case. The only conclusion to draw from that would be that property is definitely not a long term investment but rather a short to medium term one.

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]

OK - so you folks obviously got history and Im not going to get in the middle of it.

Just a question to Bubba and anyone else who cares to answer, you seem convinced that Polish real estate is in a very healthy position at present. Can I ask you if in your opinion that is location specific or whether in your opinion, it applies across the board? Specifically, I am interested in Poznan as that is where my other half is from. Also, in your experience is the market a "real" or "false" market ie is it made up of Poles or foreigners for the main part? Can you or anybpdy else provide links or statistics which shows a breakdown of ratio of Poles v foreigners participation in the Polish property market? Also can anyone confirm what current rental yields are in Poznan? Again, is there anywhere that such information can be accessed? Apart from my uber-bullish prospective Polish brother in law I seem to be unable to find out what rental levels are at. Each source seems to give different information. As you've probably guessed Im a bit cynical when I hear the words boom boom boom. However, Im always open to persuasion backed up with hard evidence. Thanks

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]

To Bubba and Tornado - appreciate you taking the time to pass on the directions - will check them out - thanks

Real Estate / The current property boom in Poland is a bubble [342]

The Federal Reserve and the ECB have had to bail a number of banks out over the past couple of weeks. These include Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas. Also investment banks such as Bear Stearns in the States have lost billions due to it turning out that a number of their investment funds were made up of sub-prime mortgage junk. Apparently, it means that the days of easy credit are over and the banks will have to revert to the old fashioned mortgage lending levels of 2 or 3 times salary as opposed to 7 or 8 times over the past few years. Effectively, this means that anyone selling a house will have to drop their price from current levels if they want someone, who is relying on a mortgage, to be able to afford it. The experts are saying that it extends right across the financial sytem in the dollar, euro and asian markets as banks in all these zones have bought dodgy investment funds which are made up of this US sub-prime mortgage stuff.

Anyone know if any Polish banks are exposed? Also, has there been a relaxation of credit restrictions over the past few years in Poland?

UK, Ireland / A collection of noimmigration's threads or "STAY AWAY from BRITAIN" [978]

What about the antics of that shower of neanderthal Bears in Manchester? They come waving Union Jacks and singing about being British and then they wreck the place! Scotland's Shame indeed!!

The English should refuse entry to all Rangers supporters in future - what do you think noimmigration?? Or are you still in jail in Manchester??

UK, Ireland / A collection of noimmigration's threads or "STAY AWAY from BRITAIN" [978]

T


I disagree. A group of 50 or more jumping on one man has nothing to do with the ancient laws of combat. If you want to fight, you should join a boxing club or get involved in sport where you can test yourself against other men instead of hiding behind a group.

The type of shite on display in Manchester is indicative of a malaise of western society where so called men are unable to act on their own and need validification in the acceptance of a group of fools. Its nothing more than consumerism gone bad. Many of those involved will have been hardline loyalists over from Belfast. To suggest that this is some sort of therepeutic exercise for them is ridiculous. This what they are about and there is nothing romantic about it.

You do a disservice to anyone who has served in real combat situations, be it against the nazis or whoever else, when comparing them to a bunch of drunken cowards.