News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

I wonder if it is truly wise of Poland to place so much faith into Trump. I mean regardless of what you think of him personally, there can be no doubt that the USA will focus less and less on Europe and instead continue its' pivot to the Pacific. North Korea and China are the countries Trump seems to be most concerned with, and China's ascension will no doubt only make American concern more urgent over the years. The USA might stick to its' commitment to defend a fellow Nato ally, but in the many other European issues that concern Poland, Warsaw will need powerful European allies. As of right now, the UK has sidelined itself through Brexit and will remain marginalized in European affairs (as evidenced e.g. by how they were not part of the negotiations about the Ukraine). France and Germany will remain the key players in the EU and Europe, and even Central European countries like the Czech Republic have agreed to closer cooperation, e.g. by integrating part of its' military into German command structure. Alligning itself closely with an (increasingly) desinterested USA while having an openly hostile relationship with Russia and a worsening relationship with the Western European countries would end up badly for Warsaw in the long run, especially if it wants to influence how the EU will develop in the next decade.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

@Crow

1. What has Croatia to do with Trumps' visit to Poland?
2. The Polish government has done everything to appease Trump, including bringing people from all over the country to greet him. That was hardly a slap into Trumps face.

3. Obviously the Three Seas Initiative doesn't offer much to Poland, realistically speaking. All the countries involved are economically dependent on either Russia or Germany (or both). When pushed, they might have to choose between either Moscow or Berlin, but none of them will antagonize both and side with Warsaw.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]



Even Romania recently announced that it would participate in the project of closer military cooperation with Germany. Its' economic dependence on Western European investment is also far too great for that. Poland simply has not the ressources to make it even remotely interesting for any of those countries to have a bad relationship with either Western Europe or Russia.


Good to know, that has hardly been reported here. You'll have to hand it to Croatia, they know how to conduct effective diplomacy. They have such a good standing in the EU that this will hardly be held against them, even by those who dislike Trump.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


If anything, it was Warsaw that needlessly antagonized Berlin since PiS got elected while Merkel showed great patience with them. That being said, I don't see why Germany and Poland should not be able work together closely. Both want to keep Russia out of the European Union, both have taken an interest in protecting the Baltic states, and both want the current pro-European government in Kiev succeeds. Both countries are important trading partners for each other and there is potential for closer economic cooperation.


I think this is more than just purely military matters. Poland's army is strong enough to make any conventional invasion not worth the cost. But if it wants to shape Europeans destiny, it must do so in accordance with other countries and major allies.

News / Trump will hold Poland up as an example for other nations to follow [106]

The meeting between Trump and Putin will be very interesting now. I just hope Trump remembers what he said and Warsaw and doesn't somehow end up selling Eastern Europe to Russia.... .

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


A fellow student of mine is a PiS supporter, yet he told me that he admires Walesa and doesn't share the animosity of his party leadership against the man. Just because you follow a party doesn't mean you have to agree with everything the party says.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


There are other factors to consider as well. Many Poles might simply be happy about Trump's visit because of what he presents (American commitment to Poland) instead of what he is. Even those who don't like Trump personally might be simply happy about this gesture.

I mean realistically speaking, there are not many reasons why Poland should be happy with Trump. Warsaw is most concerned with Russia, and there is the greatest uncertainty surrounding Trump. Trump's antiliberal ideology might make him sympathic to some PiS Voters, but Poland is unlikely to benefit from this, since this is mostly a domestic issue. The fact that Trump has endorsed Brexit is problematic for Poland, since they want to secure the rights of Poles working in the UK for which they'll need a strong hand as possible.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


Poland enjoyed far greater influence in Europe while working togeter with Berlin than now. Poland could have worked together with France and Germany to shape the European future after Brexit, while now they'll either have to choose whether or not they want to be part of a deeper integrated Europe, or if they want to be sidelined. Poland is free to pursue its' national interest, but it is not particulary smart doing so by antagonizing all its' important European partners.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


Yet, when in doubt, they'll always side with Germany instead of Poland. How many countries have sided with Warsaw against Tusk again? The secret behind Merkel's succees is that she knows how to build European alliances, and how to get the smaller countries on board. For example, many smaller countries were very concerned that Greece would be treated to leniently, and Merkel helped to convince them otherwise.

Regarding refugees, this is a matter of European solidarity. Eastern Europe and particulary Poland has received a lot of European support in form of structural funds over the years. It also has lobbied for European support since Russia became more active in Eastern Europe and Germany in particular has sacrificed a lot of its formerly good economic relation with Russia to stop Putin via sanctions (the Western country that is even more afflicted, Italy, is currently suffering the most along with Greece under the refugee crisis). Is it really too much to ask that Poland for once makes a small concession on the refugee issue?


At this point, I wouldn't be against such a solution, yet I am pretty sure that Poland hasn't offered any financial assistance to either Italy, Greece or Germany for dealing with the refugees. On the long run, I expect however this to be the solution. There are already talks about how the EU budget will be organized after Brexit, and it looks like the structural funds will be slashed, probably by more than 50%. Additionally some money might go to the countries who are taking in most of the refugees.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

As if a few thousand more would make any noticeable difference. But again, this is simply a matter of solidarity. Poland has decided that it doesn't want those refugees and I doubt that they'll be forced to take them down the line. I just don't believe it to be smart to sacrifice potentially bns of Euro each year just for that which will most likely become a consequence of Warsaw's refusal.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


Saudi-Arabia is hardly an example for human rights, certainly none Poland would want to be compared to.


There is hardly a better example for European solidarity than the Ukraine and the aftermath of the Russian annexion of Crimea. The EU condemned the violation of the Ukraine by Russia, imposed costly sanctions and there are now European troops under Nato leadership stationed in Poland and the Baltic states.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


The simple truth is, that Poland is increasingly isolated in Europe. It doesn't have 12 allies it can rely on when push comes to shove. It doesn't have 4. Hell, it might not even have one, not even Hungary backed them against Tusk. There is no need for any strong German reaction towards Poland. If Warsaw maintains its' current course, it will be increasingly sidelined on European affairs, which I'd find regrettable.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Strange, that such a supposedly religious and christian country is so insecure about its' ability to deal with a few thousand refugees.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


Well, not like there are real alternatives left there. They can choose between the butcher Assad, Al-Quaida and the IS. I would not want to risk my life for any of those guys. And shouldn't you also by the same logic have contempt for the Ukrainians who left their country, instead of fighting for it. Not to mention that there are large areas in the country that are safe?


Poland has agreed like the other EU member states to share some of its sovereignity and accept decisions that are based upon majority votes.

All I am saying is that the current Polish government is using an issue that would realistically speaking have only a slight impact on Poland - we are talking about a few thousand refugees here - in order to gain domestic approval by alienating its' allies in Europe. You can be sure that none of the affected countries will forget this any time soon. Even disregarding the potential financial damage to Poland caused by a potential reduction of the structural funds. Is Poland really in a position where it can afford this? I have no doubt that if the Ukraine crisis had happened today, Merkel would have never been able to get countries like Italy to support sanctions (something that Warsaw very much wants) against Russia. Warsaw might also find it difficult to get its' voice heard during the negotiations with the UK, where Poland wants to limit the fallout of Brexit, while other countries want to have a tough strategy towards London. It might also harm Polish interests in other ways. I recently attented a lecture about European-Russian relations, and one former German ambassador to Russia attented. He spoke about the North Stream project, and supposedly the German government was considering to remove its' support for the project for some time, because it believed that most European governments would voice its' opposition out of consideration. But apparantly several Southern European countries have reconsidered its' opposition, which is why it is not clear that the EU will veto this, which seemed very clear two years ago. Even Italy, who was noticeable angry with Berlin because it had to cancel a promising project with Moscow due to the sanctions has softened its' criticism. So if it was Poland's aim to prevent North Stream, it has not helped its' cause at all. I am saying this as someone who disapproves of the project mind you.

In short, I don't think that Warsaw has followed a productive strategy in its' foreign policy and it might end up in trouble over time.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


We have too many people here, mostly left-wing anarchists who take advantage of the restrain of the German police. But honestly, violence around G20 summits is nothing new and happens in very country where the police is not allowed to shoot people.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


Strictly speaking, a lot more Syrians have died so far that Ukrainians. And unlike the Ukraine, there are not many places that are relatively safe.


Let's just hope that Poland won't have to rely on the support of the countries that are affected by the refugee crisis in the foreseeable future. Things might get ugly though.

telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/12/italy-calls-for-eu-funding-to-be-cut-to-eastern-european-countri

Imagine for example, that no agreement is reached with London about EU foreigner because some countries like Italy want a hard Brexit. 100.000s of Poles would be directly affected, partly of the Polish refusal to take in a few thousand refugees. Is this a proportional equation?

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


The better question, who doesn't support Germany regularly in Europe? In most crucial matters, e.g. regarding Greece, sanctions against Russia et al. most countries agree with Germany.

And which of those countries do you sincerely expect to side with Poland against the EU when in question? No one was willing to support Warsaw against the reelection of Tusk. And since both the EU and Germany offer all countries of the Seven sea initiave better economic incencitive, you can be sure that they won't side with Warsaw against Brussels or Berlin.

The USA won't be of much help either in most matters because they are shifting their attention to Asia.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


And it will continue to do so probably until 2023. And as everyone could tell Trump, Germany and other countries are thus fully living up to their commitment. The agreement was that Nato members should reach the 2% in 2024 not 2017.

Besides, I find it incredibly arrogant of the USA to accuse other NATO allies of freeloading. Nato has so far been involved in one war. When it came to the defence of the USA. Hundreds of Europeans died in Afghanistan. Dont their sacrifice count for anything?

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


So no problems here. We have to reach the target until 2024, not before. Why is it so difficult for some Americans to understand this? We have to reach the target by 2024, nor 2017!


Such demands were even more ridiculous back then. I mean would anyone suggest today that there were not enough soldiers in Europe during the Cold War?

Those European soldiers died in Afghanistan for the defense of the USA after 9/11. How many Americans have died on behalf of Europe?

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


I don't forget them, but they are simply not relevant for the discussion at hand. We are talking about Nato here, and whether or not Europe has recently failed up to its' commitment.

The current argument by Trump is that Europe has been "freeloading" on American support. As pointed out however, there has been only one instance so far when Nato had to defend one of its' member states and in which the European allies fully lived up to their commitment. The war in question is btw. far from over, and will likely be a drain on ressources and lifes for quite some time. That the president of the USA dares to belittle European contribution while there are still Europeans stationed in Afghanistan is nothing short of insulting.

It also absurd that Trump claims that European countries "owe" money to the USA. Firstly, even if member states agree to spend more on defence, this money won't go to the USA, but will be spent on each country's own military. Secondly, even if Europeans spend more on defence, would this necessarily mean that American tax payers would have to pay less overall? Trump has after all announced to increase American defence budget, despite the fact that other Nato have also started to increase spending. Even if Nato allies would met the 2% aim already in 2017, the USA would still be paying more than before.

News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]


Trade partnerships can be destroyed easily, bbutit takes time to develop them, especially if you want a particulary close partnership. Germany is an ideal trading partner, because it is geographically close, has large and wealthy population that seek Polish services and thanks to its' higher wage structure, has trouble with competing with Polish competition. No other country fullfills all those criterias. It would be utterly foolish to throw this away.

News / Was Kaczyński behind the presidential veto? [65]

The situation in Poland is really bizarre. I mean are there any other examples in functioning democracies where a politician without official position seems to be pulling the strings off both the president and the prime minister?

News / EU confirms it will take action against Poland over court reforms [554]

Good. Europe has abonded Poland too often in the past. It is reassuring to know that the EU has the back of the Poles who understand the truly dangerous implications of the proposed law.

News / EU confirms it will take action against Poland over court reforms [554]

To those who believe that Poland could do easily without EU money, it is worth remembering that Warsaw receives in structural funds more money than it actually spends on defence. Poland would lose a vital factor for its' current economic growth.


Is this really how you envision Poland's future? Completely isolated in Europe, whose only allies are either increasingly desinterested in European affairs, or more occupied with their own unstable neighbourhood in the ME?

News / Was Kaczyński behind the presidential veto? [65]


Having a functioning rule of law is more than "status quo". And PiS didn't pledge to destroy the Judicial independence in Poland in the election campaign. And even if they did and had been elected regardless, it would be the duty of any citizen to oppose them.

News / EU confirms it will take action against Poland over court reforms [554]


You know we aren't living in the 1940s anymore right?


As if there was any need for this. It is not the EU that still clings to the conspiracy theory against all evidence that Russia murdered the Polish president. Kaczynski does not need any encouragement for his enmity against Russia.

History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]

@Ziemowit


I have recently written a university paper about the Oder-Neisse-line and from what I have remembered, the issue of reparations is legally closed. The arguments are as such:

1. Article IV. of the Potsdam Protocol deals with the issue of reparations, there is a passage regarding Poland:

"The U. S. S. R. undertakes to settle the reparation claims of Poland from its own share of reparations."

The SU took huge parts of the German industry, money and natural ressources as reparations. I don't know how much ended up in Poland, but that would be up to the SU. It is worth pointing out that until the border treaty between Germany and Poland in 1991, Poland insisted that the Potsdam Protocol was absolute (because it wanted the Oder-Neisse-line to be final).

2. Poland agreed to wave its' rights to reparations with the GDR. The fact that neither country was a democracy is from a legal point of view completely inconsequential, otherwise it would be impossible to get legal agreements with non-democracy. It is also completely inconsequential if those treaties were signed under outside pressure, because then peace treaties would of course also become in general not binding. So JK's argument is completely ridiculous.

3. Germany and Poland agreed to solve the issue permanently during the negotiations for the border-treaty in 1991. Germany created a foundation that paid out several bns to Polish victims of the war.

Besides, it is not really in Poland's interest to open this can of worms. Because then those Germans who were expelled could demand reparations for their lost property (the Potsdam agreement that legally allowed those expulsions would become non-binding due to Poland's insistence) and there is also the issue of looted art (the Berlinka collection for example) which Berlin has so far not pressed because of respect to Polish sensitives, but would also become open to discussion.


That would be an issue you would have to discuss with Russia. However regarding Germany, the intent of the Potsdam Agreement was very clear. Poland would receive German land and property and additionally whatever the SU would deem suitable from their part of the reparations. There is no additional claim here. And strictly speaking, the German territory was far more valuable (in terms of ressources and industry) than the part lost in the East.

History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]


That would be an issue e.g. between Poland and the Ukraine/Russia, which would have nothing to do withe claims against Germany, or claims Germans would have against Poland.


This is not true, the people who ended up in charge thanks to Stalin very much supported those. But admittedly in the end it was Stalin who decided what was done


Pointing out that the current Polish government is harming Polish long-term interests. As your language indicates, those who favour the current approach are not guided by logic and have seemingly no understanding for the implications of those decisions. Poland has nothing to gain from those claims, because as pointed out they are legally non-existing.

History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]


Several treaties in which Germany agreed to pay reparations to them.

Poland has in 1954 signed a treaty in which it waved off its' claims to further reparations, regarding Germany as a whole (not only the GDR, because the GDR was for them the legitimate German government).

Poland decided to stick to this decision during the negotiations for the treaty of Warsaw (1970) and later during negotiations for German reunifications. Germany in return agreed to pay bns voluntarily to the victims and gave Poland cheap loans which Poland craved.

In short, there is no legal basis for any further claims on Polish sides.

History / For what the Germans owe Poland one trillion U.S. dollars? [299]


Simple, he wanted to keep Poland dependent on the SU, because Poland would need the SU to defend them against German attempts to revise the border.


The areas especially in Silesia had still vastly more economic potential than the areas in the East. That the areas in now Western Poland were far more valuable both in terms of ressources and industrial capabilities (far from everything was destroyed) than those lost in the East is not up to any debate, it is a fact.


All of that is covered in the existing treaties. There were in total 5 times when the issue of reparations was adressed for Poland: 1. Potsdam Agreement 2. The treaty with the GDR 3. Warsaw treaty 4. 4+2 treaty 1990 and 5. the border treaty with Germany in 1991.

The point is that Poland has time and time again refirmed its' position to not seek further reparations against Germany, and signed treaties confirming this. There is hardly any modern conflict in which the reparation issue has been dealt with as conclusively as between Poland and Germany.


It doesn't matter, those claims would still have to be made by the Polish state, who has signed off any claims for future reparations.