Real Estate /
Buying a flat in Krakow; prices are still falling? [200]
milky - I'm sticking with what I wrote.
1) Pre-2002 ( before the boom, or however you want to call it ) you had pretty much semi-commie prices. None of the global banking players knew which way the country would swing ( think Serbia or Ukraine ) so they were cautious while entering the market.
Once Poland's feet were firmly planted upon the road to EU ( a good indication it will go from "emerging" to "developed" markets in, let's say, 50 years ) banks moved in to make a profit and mortgage backed credit became widely available.
2) So in reality now the average price of a square meter of residential in Poland is effectively determined by how much the bank will lend an average couple of "buraks".
This factor was nearly non-existant during the pre-2002/semi-commie prices period.
Baring Russian invasion or an outbreak of bubonic plague the banks will not pull out of Poland, neither will they completely stop lending money.
Hence the prices are not going down to pre-2002 period.
Heck, if You believe the prices will fall by so much "because they have to", then by all means wait even longer. In the 1980's You were able to buy a hooker in Poland for what it costed to purchase a bottle of Pepsi in Deutschland and a decent flat in Wroclaw = 2 months of vacation work in Canada.
Why not set that as a benchmark and wait until the prices drop that low? :-)
3) Comparing the Polish real estate market with the Irish real estate market makes no point, apples and oranges really. In addition, Poland went through the "crisis" relatively well, when compared to let's say Hungary, Lithuania or Latvia. If I were to hazard a guess where residential real estate prices would drop the most due to economy related reasons I'd rather point my finger in their general direction.
4) Apart from that, a couple of Polish buraks can make that 5-6k zloty net in Poland ( talking Cracow, Warsaw, Tri-City, Wroclaw or Katowice now ) between the two of them right now, throw in the swiss franc and grandpa's pension and they'll get that credit without the help of Ryanair and Irish minimum wage.
Hence this:
the wages of the buying public are in the west,dont complicate the matter..
isn't really applicable.
One of the financial advisors I work with recently brought a plot in a good neighbourhood in one of Poland's bigger cities for about 400.000 zloty. Not a big plot, either. He intends to splash another 400.000 or so on the house. Dude never even seen Dublin, makes most his money off credit commissions.
5) All things considered, You sir sound a bit bitter. I know it would have been great if you came to Cracov in, let's say, 2000-2001, bought 3 100+ meter flats in downtown Cracow for 250.000 ( real prices from Pędzichów street from said period ) and now sold them at 900.000-1 mil a piece.
But that didn't happen and in all honesty, if you're looking for a chance like that You'll prolly be better off looking at Kiev or Belgrade.