News / Demonstrations in Poland in defence of democracy. [2554]


China is moving from a manufacturing export based economy to an internally driven consumer and service based economy. The last decade they have bought vast quantities of raw materials with which to build cities for the their people. They financed this by selling cheap products to the rest of the world. Now that they are done building, they are going to grow internally. It will take time, but thats their goal. So if you want a railway to China, you are going to have to build it yourself.

News / Demonstrations in Poland in defence of democracy. [2554]


The bank tax even though not officially sworn in is already seeing a blanket increase in baking charges and of course loan repayment margins. The retail sales tax (was to be supermarket tax but now will include almost anything being sold to individuals, full details next week) is going to have a similar effect - higher prices. That in itself gives a one off boost to inflation but doesnt help the lower income class that they are supposedly defending. Tomorrow morning we will get details on the swiss franc loan conversion scheme. Again all savers and loan holders will be made to subsidise poor decisions made by those who took out swiss franc loans. The best you can say is they mean well but dont have a good idea about how to make real improvements that their manifesto pointed to.

News / Demonstrations in Poland in defence of democracy. [2554]

ANother comment with subzero foundation. We dont employ anyone directly. And we will be paying largely the same taxes as before.

News / Demonstrations in Poland in defence of democracy. [2554]


PIS has already lost the next election, they just dont know it yet.

Genealogy / Polish blood only makes up 1% of your "Polishness" [77]

Haha, no. Weve have dealing with them many times over the years, but thats their job. As long as you stick to the rules and pay your dues, you arent going to have a problem with them.

Genealogy / Polish blood only makes up 1% of your "Polishness" [77]


Actually a true Pole doesnt pay their taxes. None. Then complains when the urzad skarbowy fines them.

Real Estate / EU national wanting to move and buy a house in Poland [41]


True, hard to find a better job than in the UK, afterall 3 million Poles can't be wrong! But you can get much better returns on property investments here in Poland. You can get yields well north of 6% in prime locations in the big cities (you can't get even half of that in London), 10% in secondary cities. Smaller commerical units in big cities can yield even more if they are let to a financial institution or supermarket-retail chain, where you are shielded by longterm contracts of 10 years. These units tend to be small with minimal service costs, which make for great investments for those looking for yield. Interest rates are low and will only go lower in Poland this year, so will more than cancel out any marginal increase on loan margins from the bank tax.

Real Estate / EU national wanting to move and buy a house in Poland [41]

Some pricing is absurb, but the general rule is a Pole wants twice the market price if selling, but half the market price if buying! Commercial is a bit better pricing is a bit more regular and just get the feeling units let to banks and retailers might be a bit cheaper to buy and give even better yields than before. Thank you PIS ;)

News / Restoring the Port of Elbląg? [113]

Who is going to paid for this port? I find it really strange. Its like two homeless penniless beggars arguing about what they should order for lunch. Since neither can pay, whats the point. Every time someone from the cabinet opens their mouth, it creates more panic for the markets and the zloty.

Work / Job prospects in Poland for Polish-American [14]

If you are required to have contact with Polish natives day to day or liase with other colleagues in Polish, not knowing the language isn't going to help a foreigner get a post, but certain jobs don't require this so best to consider each on an individual basis.

News / Poland bets on Russian oil again [82]

Its clear we are talking about oil. And at a price which is towards historical lows the market is in contango and taking the view that future prices will be higher, underlined by futures contracts over the next 2 years. Usually the oil market is in contango given storage costs, but when market is excessively high, future price exhibit backwardation, where the futures prices is below the spot price. Since we are towards the bottom of the historical range, the market is pricing in a higher future price and any deals done on oil delivery is going to be based on market estimates. Anything else is speculation and doesnt fall under the prudent approach to budgeting that most governments stick to.

Johnny Reb, a commoditys price tends to hold up or go up if its in demand ie if people are buying the commodity. Food is something the world as a whole cannot do without and so on the whole food prices have stayed firmed. Youve got stuff like cocoa which has gone up loads in the last year whole pork has gone down a bit, but taken as a whole, firm. Now look at stuff like copper aluminium iron, all of that is down roughly 50% in the last year. Chinas growth was behind the boom in commodity prices over the past decade. They claim growth is slowing from 8% a couple of years ago to around 6% this year, partly as they move from a manufacturing to service based economy. So they'll be needing less of the above mentioned stuff. The slack is supposed to be taken up by the growth in other economies in the world and that what people are waiting for.

As for heating costs etc, you are paying a lot of taxes within the price, for example petrol in poland (i filled up today at 4.05zl for 98octane) is about 3zl in taxes and other fixed charges.

News / Poland bets on Russian oil again [82]

Future price are always higher, thats what I said. Not that they always go up. Those are two different statements. Future price contain a premium for holding the contract and this decays over time. Arguing against this is "stupid"

News / Poland bets on Russian oil again [82]

R.U.R. You know the saying, horses and water...
Either that or they must be teachers, as they find it very hard to listen.

News / Poland bets on Russian oil again [82]

Future prices are always higher versus current. As the future month draws nearer so does the price move lower towards the current price, until the future price becomes the current month. That is the cost of holding a future month contract.

News / Poland's PIS go back to their old ways [194]

I went to private school, non board, from 11-18. Best education you can get as it sets you up for life. In Poland private schools tend to be of a low academic standard, when in fact it should be the opposite. Having an entrance exam attracts the best students and the best teachers, that my view on it.

News / Poland bets on Russian oil again [82]

Russians are in no position to make demands, just look at the rouble. Poland has got a good deal. As I said future prices are alway higher and when demands picks up in the next couple of years, future prices will be $60-80. Eitherway, it makes sense to do deals when there is a glut of oil and global demand low as it will eventually pick up and when it does, the pricewill rise quickly given falling investment and rigs opertaional. As a side point, with low oil prices, USA hits two birds with one stone, Russia and the Saudis.

News / Poland bets on Russian oil again [82]

If $45/b is correct thats a bloody great forward price as most investment banks have an average price if 55 for 2016 and 62 for 2017. Dont forget future oil price contracts are much higher than current prices.

Real Estate / Contemplating moving to Poland with the intention of buying a property out-right and living there [36]

A lot of things to consider but you can open a sterling account in quite a lot of banks, which means you can transfer funds online. The benefit here is that you can then order the pounds and withdraw them and go straight to a foreign exchange which tends to give you a better exchange rate than banks do. Of course you may find a person willing to buy the pounds off you and you'll get an even better rate.

Once you sign a contract to teach here you will have to either do it through a company based in Poland or as a normal employee of the school which will make subject to taxes and health insurance.

Real Estate / Alerting Poland's local land registry offices? [5]

You can go to the local council to find out what property taxes he is liable for and so what he owns under that particular gmina. They may or not help you without any formal power of attorney if you explain the situation.

News / Poland's PIS go back to their old ways [194]

dolnyslask, its primarily the ZUS and so the governments fault for people looking elsewhere for work. 3 million Poles in the UK alone that felt they had no prospects in their native country. A self employed person has to pay more than 1000zl ZUS each month thats before he/she earns a penny. The approach of the Polish Government is that you must be taxed at the start since you are untrustworthy and unlikely to report your earnings. And the main reason so many people work on the black market is that ZUS is still high for employees. The minimum wage is a little under 2000zl brutto but the employee is just left with less than 1300zl.

btw dolnyslask, not far from Jelenia Gora and Karpacz is Kowary, about 80% unemployed and where officially more than a dozen children with daughter and father as parents in a population of maybe 5,000. Unofficially probably more such cases. Kowary isnt alone, there are many similar towns, you just wont have had the need to visit them.

Real Estate / Any Rent Guarantee Insurance in Poland? Tenants& Landlords In Poland [5]

Ive always manage to avoid such a sequence of events but it can cost a few thousand if you get a lawyer to represent you in court and deal with the case. It can take years to get your money back if the tenant has little or no declared income, but its probably best to go ahead with it as it sets an example for others. But to avoid such incidents, vet your tenants thoroughly (dont take the first one that agrees to take the flat), take a decent deposit and fall on them like a ton of bricks as soon as rent overdue.

News / Poland's PIS go back to their old ways [194]

Dolnyslask, because your parents instilled values into your upbringing and I doubt your father was selling your mothers services for alcohol and drugs. When one of the kids die from they just have another. And of course the social worker claims no knowledge of the neglect but then privately tells her friends she was afraid to write it in her reports for fear of retaliation from the kids fathers. This is sadly a true example and while not every family is like this, there are a great deal of similar examples, it just all gets swept under the carpet because the fundamental flaw I find Poles have is that they generally abuse their position and look after their own personal interests first, rather than look at the bigger picture and thats why their is so much corruption on all levels of business and especially in local goverments offices.

News / Poland's PIS go back to their old ways [194]

Most parents cannot be trusted, certainly can be said of my mother's home town. In most families there's at least one alcoholic, if child is really fortunate then two. You need a licence to drive, why not a licence for children? Of course it sounds daft and totally against the PC grain running through the world today, but often the biggest responsibility most people have in their lives. Of course the 500 program for vodka, sorry for children, will only make matters worse and encourage more offspring by those least able to cope/bring up these children.

News / Demonstrations in Poland in defence of democracy. [2554]

As many smaller developing nations, Poland is just a bottle floating in the ocean. It's just how it is. Foreign companies invest to make a profit, but with that investment they brought work and on the whole, better conditions and practice. Joining the EU made it easier for that foreign money to invest in Poland, as well as the EU payouts that came with it. Poland avoided recession over the last few years largely due to spending on infrastructure from EU money. Certainly you cannot argue that it didn't boost GDP. Yes a lot of industries got privatised as a condition of EU membership, but a lot of state owned industries were bloated and uncompetitive, suffering from theft by employees no end (at all levels, so thats management and factory floor). Generally, big business isnt safe in government hands, just look at whats going on in the coal mining industry, where the government seems determined to make just about everyone pay towards its upkeep.

News / Poland bets on Russian oil again [82]

Well if oil stays at current levels the Saudis are going to have a problem balancing their budget this year and will have to dip into those wealth funds that they have been building over the last few decades. This will have reprecussions on the assets classes where those sales are made. Largely due to the dictatorship, Saudi wealth has largely been sqandered and were oil to run out they have zero to fall back on. So while the Saudi titanic looks impressive, the holes below sea level will eventually sink it, though maybe not in our lifetime.

Travel / Gym & Fitness near Wroclaw area for an American? [12]

That's probably it Roger. As I say I'm not too clued up, my own fitness schedule compromises of two young children, so no need for me to look for more! Dolnoslask, you would be surprised (or not) most young people train by lifting their arm with a glass in hand, I should know we have a bar close by! Might be worth dropping by in person to see if its your thing. The building is pretty empty these days, as they have built two more shopping centres since then, so I'm sure the rates wont be too bad.

Travel / Gym & Fitness near Wroclaw area for an American? [12]

A couple of friends of mine regularly attend a class where they train with weighted balls. I don't know the specific name for them but they can be from 10 to 25kgs with a handle on one side. The instructor is also clued up in MMA techniques and one of my friends sparred with him quite regularly. Its not my thing so I didn't ask for details but pretty sure it took place on the gym premises of Galeria Grodzka, on the top floor. I can certainly find out when I next speak to him. As for the gym itself, depsite living only 200 yards away until not long ago, I have never been since its not really my thing, but it does look impressive enough looking up from the street.

Real Estate / Poland Agent refuses to let me see their tenancy agreement unless I sign to pay their fee [13]

Its possible the letting agent didn't want to show a copy of the tenancy agreement as it will have contained details of the property's owner, from which you could then "by-pass" the letting agent and get straight in touch with the owner. Even for a basic residential flat it will save you anywhere from a quarter to a full months rent and it will save the owner at least one months rent + vat. So strong incentives for people to try to by pass the agency (and why photos on websites are mostly taken from the inside, so you cant work out where the property is). So they probably had no way of showing you the paperwork without the risk of reading the owners details. That said, they should be able to pass on the main details or at least blank out certain lines in the contract and photocopy. Agents are very hit and miss. And very "competitive" towards each other. Worse than between Polish taxi drivers and thats talking from experience of dealing with both professions.

Real Estate / Applying for a mortgage in Poland (wife and husband) [9]

Government is recommending banks raise deposits to 15% for 2016 but not all have decided to do so straight away. Banks prefer people tied down to long term contracts but will accept self employment although the bar is higher. As long as they dont have too many liabilities (personal/car loans), then they should be able to get a 25/30 yr loan for a flat of 200k and keep monthly repayments below 1000zl/m going by current rates (3-5% is the range for loans these days). The MDM program may be something of interest if flat is between 50-75m2. We recently sold our last flat by this method - the government fronts about 30% while the bank the remaining 70%. There are income limits and it does add about 3 to 4 weeks to the processing time.

Real Estate / Refusal for a mortgage in Poland [18]

Interest rates aren't going up in Poland any time soon and in fact the new government will try to cut them early next year if they get their way, so its a good time to get a loan or mortgage (and use the low rates to pay down as much as possible in the next couple of years, rather than overstretch and stump for a larger mortgage). You can approach a loan adviser to save you running around all of the banks. You will have to add maybe 1% to the value of the loan as their fee, but they will do all the leg work for you and save you having to make official requests at banks, as these will go against you at the checking phase if you have taken too many applications.