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Posts by convex  

Joined: 25 Nov 2009 / Male ♂
Last Post: 28 Nov 2011
Threads: Total: 20 / In This Archive: 13
Posts: Total: 3928 / In This Archive: 3150
From: Wroclaw
Speaks Polish?: un poco...wait
Interests: aviation

Displayed posts: 3163 / page 67 of 106
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convex   
13 Jun 2010
News / Next 100 years - Poland as great power? [35]

...whose 'primitive' (Medvedev's own word) commodity-based economy goes up and down like a tart's drawers along with the price of peak oil;

A primitive self sustaining cash rich economy which is building itself at a fairly rapid pace even despite the business climate. That primitive economy is diversifying at a very fast rate.

Would you rather be sitting on half of the worlds commodities, or not?

... enough of a land army to get the job done in Chechnya, too. Yeah, that worked, didn't it?

The military doesn't work as a police force, that's not exactly surprising. Any major wars will involve flying boom tubes.

Russia is managing to get its population off of the welfare state opium, and paying back it's debts. Male life expectancy is 61, and rising. Urban centers like Novosibirsk, Vladivostok, Rostov, Volgograd (not to mention the big boys)... Do you know anyone holding Russian debt? The minute it's issued, it's snapped up, and then matures incredibly quickly. I know a country holding massive amounts of foreign debt and one of the worlds largest foreign currency reserves, give you a hint, rhymes with mussia.

Come off it, you sound like one of those fifth columnists Stalin invited to Russia in the 30s who wrote back in wonder at the model society they could see 50 meters either side of the railway track.

With all those pesky facts? That's what's on the table, and we're discussing long term. Will Europe and the US be able to continue borrowing their way to prosperity? Latest bond sales weren't looking too hot... What you fail to understand is that Russia is only interested in the 50 meters on either side of the track. Would you suggest that the future lies in the worlds largest debtor nations, or the worlds largest creditor nations?
convex   
12 Jun 2010
Travel / New Indoor Go-Karting Track coming to Wrocław [9]

Hopefully it will make money

Indeed. The one at Bielany is only still in business because their overhead is next to nothing. No clue how an indoor place that is further away will make money. Wish them all the best though.
convex   
11 Jun 2010
News / Next 100 years - Poland as great power? [35]

A country with vast natural resources, enough nuclear weapons to get the job done, and a shrinking population that is concentrated in urban centers. Yea, whew, what a crappy position to be in.
convex   
11 Jun 2010
News / Next 100 years - Poland as great power? [35]

Jesus christ Friedman is a hack. F16s=great power? watch out, because Oman and Pakistan are coming up quick...

It's sad to watch Strafor eat itself like this.
convex   
9 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Yes, but they were guiding. Let me put it to you this way. You have a man paid to be the eyes of a blind man who needs to reach his final destination. You have the full picture and can see the danger ahead. You guide him into a hole from which he dies thereafter. Whose fault is it?

Wrong. They were on secondary radar, flying an NDB approach. They were flying the plane. Advisory does not equal control. The crew was flying the approach, not ATC. It wasn't a radar approach. If the transcripts are true, they killed themselves and their passengers through gross negligence.
convex   
8 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Quite what you are talking about I'm not sure. But the Pilots were using the wrong procedure to approach the the airport, using barometric pressure; this gave them the height about sea level not the height above the airport as they should have been using. This is a fundamental mistake never mind the fact that they were not flying the aircraft after it descended below the decision height.

If it was an NDB approach, it would have had a MDA, not a DH. They seemed to have been using the radar altimeter to get the DH. The calls in the transcript seem to be lined up with the terrain.
convex   
4 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Surely the pilot would have mentioned sth or even given a hint as to how he deliberately ignored protocol and warnings. Not flying the plane? I'd understand a quick emergency session but why didn't he pull up and cut his losses? No pilot could seriously think that they could negotiate a whole set of trees

They didn't think about the valley. Look at a cutaway view of the terrain profile. Using the radar altimeter instead of the barometric altimeter probably killed them. NDB approach means you can descend to a particular altitude, not a particular height above the ground. By the time they realized how low they were, it was way too late. Big birds like that have quite a bit of inertia...

Or maybe the crash was a case of classic group-think, that did not ivolve the expertise of the pilots.

That would be pilot error 101...
convex   
3 Jun 2010
Language / Polish and other slavic language differences [60]

Slovak comes across as a sloppy form of Czech with lots of slang. Not sure how it evolved, but that's probably one of the reasons that Slovaks usually don't have a problem understanding Czechs, but quite a few Czechs have serious problems understanding Slovak.
convex   
3 Jun 2010
Study / Studying in Poland in English [35]

I am considering going after my first year in college here.

Just go to a state university, problem solved. UT is under $10k/yr.

Wroclaw University of Technology has some English language programs, $4k/yr.

Medical program runs 6 years, averages out to about $10k/yr in tuition.
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

I'll give you a clue, many more than you had originally posted. I checked up on it.

I'd be interested to see it.

I guess so, yes. Still, why report nonsense and then retract it? What faith does that provide to its readership?

They left late, there wasn't enough time to land at an alternate without being late. There is nothing to retract there.

I can't remember the news station but he was dissatisfied with not getting the transcripts by the 22/04 promised time.

Seems pretty happy at the moment. Remember, one has questioned the integrity of the FDR and CVR because they've been under joint custody since being found. The only point that integrity could have been compromised would have been between the plane flying into the ground and discovery of the recorders.
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

New crew? Hardly that new

How many hours had that crew flown together in that configuration?

Rush? I haven't heard of such rushing in planes. The only rushing I heard was in false reporting.

They left early, with enough time to land at an alternate and still complete the mission.... right.

Have you asked Szeremet and Rzepa if they are happy? They didn't seem to be on 23/04.

Could you give me a link to where Rzepa's current complaints about the investigation?

You describe people as cargo?

Self loading at that.

Reasoning? Wouldn't that tell us that TAWS and erring on the side of caution was rational?

My reasoning about the crash.

Non-precision approach? Any doubts and you divert or request extra help

It's an approach where no glidepath is provided. Regarding the second bit, I think you have a bit of an optimistic view on the world of aviation...

They killed themselves? Again you are implying suicide.

Causing your own death through negligence does not make it suicide.
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Of course not, but I can't prove that Jaroslaw isn't an alien sent here to enslave us either.

It just comes down to reasoning.

Polish and Russian authorities are happy.

Rush to get the cargo delivered.

New crew.

Non precision approach in very bad weather.

It's not really all that surprising that they killed themselves. All it takes is someone calling out radar altimeter readings on a non precision approach...
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Convex, to what extent can overuse of such cellphones impact on the electronic equipment in use?

Not enough to kill people.

But seriously, looking at the terrain profile, and considering they were using the radar altimeter to get their height, it's stupid.

They were flying an NDB approach like a precision approach using decision height instead of altitude. So if the transcripts are true, that already points to them breaking the rules.

This is looking more and more like sloppy flying.
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

So, in summary, what can we glean from these 'transcripts'? Virtually nothing without further corroboration.

The transcripts tell us that they descended below minimums, which is pretty much what sky and peter mentioned as well. Get-there-itis. Kills more people than you might think. They weren't consciously trying to kill themselves, but they were pushing the risk envelope to unacceptable levels.
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

If they weren't flying the plane, what were they doing?

Probably looking for the runway and letting the AP fly the plane into the ground

t comfort would that descent provide, convex, as I am new to this? Flirting with the tops of trees is just lunacy IMHO. Nothing more, nothing less.

It's incredibly poor judgment. Question is, why did they do that? I think the Polish AF will be blamed in the end if they actually decide to do an investigation of the root cause.
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

I meant the survival instincts of the pilots. They were clearly alerted by the TAWS system and would have taken evasive action.

TAWS alerts while landing are normal. Pilots under pressure tend to descend below minimums. Pilots that descend below minimums are either skillful get the job done heroes, or dead.

All that aside, they apparently weren't even flying the plane...
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

A crew of nearly 100 would surely have planned their journey in advance. The fact is that fog can be easily negotiated by experienced pilots and they didn't need to rush the plane down.

They have a record of sloppiness. Whether you choose to accept that or not is irrelevant. Fog is not easily negotiated by flight crews under pressure to land with strange configurations.

The former KKK leader, David Duke, raised the point about the impact with the trees. I really can't comment on this but he was saying that clipping the tree wouldn't have irreperably damaged the wing.

Seriously Seanus? Seriously? Are you being so sarcastic that it just went over my head?
convex   
3 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Ever glossed up a report, convex? What kind of a pilot ignores multiple warnings and his own TAWS system? What kind of pilot wouldn't maintain a higher altitude to be sure? Fog is not new and doesn't pose problems for experienced pilots.

Plenty actually, unfortunately. It happens nearly every single day. People descending below decision height to get down. There are various reasons why it happen, almost always pilot error.

Well , of course he thought he was going to get away with it...There was every chance that any small gap in the clouds might give them a glimpse of that runway and enable them to put the aircraft down safely...

And sadly, everyone has been in that position. Thank god I fly privately and don't have anything other than personal pressure to put the plane down. My personal minimums are pretty high. I always leave with plenty of time to put down the plane and rent a car. Unfortunately, when someone else is paying, the pressure is on...
convex   
2 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Did they realise that pilots didn't realise that there were no weather conditions to land? They were continuing landing.

They wouldn't refuse them an attempt at landing. The airport is either closed, or it's opened. You fly the approach down to minimums and go missed if you don't see the runway. Same goes for any other approach at any other airport.
convex   
2 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Thick fog? Convenient (this isn't 1930).

I think even more impressive is how they got everyone to corroborate the story about the fog. Especially the Yak pilots, man, sending their own colleagues and friends to their death, harsh. They even sent a plane back to Moscow to back the story!

all pilots and ground control staff worldwide communicate in fluent English

You forgot to mention that they were military controllers.

The fact that Lech Kaczyński was anti-corruption and anti-mafia was totally irrelevant, we are asked to believe.

Why not just wait another couple of months until he lost the elections? Seems kind of pointless to invest a bunch of money in a risky operation to kill him, and perform a massive coverup, just for a guy that was about to go into retirement.

Pilots just don't make those kinds of mistakes when given time to introduce corrective measures. The TAWS was working and serving its alerting function. The transcripts were bound to say that, did anyone expect anything else? Can they prove it? Anyone can put anything on the net these days!

Who sabotaged the Miroslawiec flight?
convex   
2 Jun 2010
News / Decoded talks inside Poland's president's plane are released in Internet [337]

Why are people taking the Russian transcripts of the Polish plane crash as the gospel truth?

I guess it's because it's a joint investigation and Polish prosecutors were there during the opening and transcription process.

Why isn't Russia giving back the black boxes to Poland after all these months?

Who's requesting the black boxes?

If it was the other way around, would Russia allow another country to hold onto the black boxes and accept the transcripts made by the investigators of the other country?

Yes. Check out any of the Aeroflot accidents that happened outside of Russian territory. There were a couple of IL-76 flights that went down as well, and were obviously investigated by the local authority.
convex   
1 Jun 2010
Real Estate / PLN 2,500 the going rate for an apartment in Poland [210]

I'm suggesting that once they'll have the Euro, their prices will go up drastically, because the plan was, and still is, to have one currency in Europe, with one value. You can't expect to have a weak Euro in Poland, and a stronger Euro in the rest of the countries, but I'm sure you guys already knew that.

One of the goals in the EU is price equilibrium across member states. The hikes are already taking place, and it's a gradual rise. Poland won't be getting the Euro for some time to come. Anyway, a Big Mac in Kosice is still way cheaper than buying one in Nice. There were no drastic price changes in Slovakia for basic goods and services.