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Posts by convex  

Joined: 25 Nov 2009 / Male ♂ 		Last Post: 28 Nov 2011
Threads: Total: 20 / In This Archive: 13
Posts: Total: 3928 / In This Archive: 3150 		From: Wroclaw
Speaks Polish?: un poco...wait
Interests: aviation

Displayed posts: 3163 / page 26 of 106
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convex   
19 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

tell me convex, what are you really trying to prove here? Because you paint it totally black but it isn't. I live here, I see little changes but nothing drastic. Maybe in the north it is much worse than here but where I live there's no reason to panic.

That the US financial system is unsound? We've never been in a situation where the only thing keeping the government afloat is that the people printing the money are also buying its debt. That's not worrisome? It's not worrisome that countries are buying less and less US debt at a time when the US needs countries to buy its debt in order to maintain financial credibility? But, what do I know. I mean, granted the last Chairman of the Fed agrees, but ah well... I have nothing to prove about the US economy. You're right, I don't have anything to prove to you. It's just my take. I don't know what you invest in, how old you are, where you live, if you're a man or a woman. I just see a name writing things which seem to ignore the problem and pretend it's not happening, when the US has always been strong as a problem solving country, and not the lost ship that it is today. Fair enough.

ask that Polish top manager who said it.

It was analyst, and he said:

"The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly," said Miroslaw Budzicki, analyst at PKO, one of the 12 primary dealers at government bond sales. "In the longer term, bonds may benefit as Poland's fiscal situation is better than on the periphery but a knee-jerk reaction is to sell the longer end."

The analyst is saying Polish bonds are a short term risk for traders, and a good buy for long term investors.
convex   
19 Nov 2010
History / The Greatest King of Poland? [117]

Well....

Lech got a beer
Krakus got a city
The Piasts got a beer and a bunch of cities
Jadwiga got a mead
The Sobieskis got a vodka

It's an interesting way of honoring former rulers...
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

I never denied that we have problems but you guys are blowing it out of proportions. I don't know your family and their problems. In my family everyone has a steady income and no one is struggling. Comparing with Europe, the prices here are still OK. This and that went up, that's true but when I think back how it was in Poland and Germany, we still shouldn't bit*h too much.

Steady income vs loss of purchasing power. Purchasing power is on the decline in the US, at least that is what the US government tells us.

Median household income is on the decline in the US, and inflation is on the rise. Why would you compare another country or continent as a benchmark instead of using US history?

When you're indicator is growth, Poland is looking pretty good investment wise. Price stability, same deal. Debt/GDP, still looking good. Banking industry, well grounded.

The risk of investing in Europe has risen relative to what?

Like I said, I don't invest in government debt, but the indicators are all there. Anyway, I'll stick to my commodities, you can keep your dollars, euros, and zloty.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

of course it is a problem but I know, we'll solve this problem just like we solved every other problem before. There's absolutely no need to crack on it all the time. It's not like we're the only ones who have problems, right?

The US has never had these kinds of problems before outside of war time with other countries in such powerful positions financially. I have family and friends that are feeling the pain of their money being devalued and the Dollar losing more and more as a reserve currency every year. You can choose to ignore that, but it affects Americans dramatically. Bigger issue than immigration, terrorism, healthcare... Americans are working harder to buy less, that trend will continue. The joys of inflation.

There was a scetch a few years ago of an american kid asking his parents for pocket money per week of 20 dollars...they agreed then the kid asked "actually, can i have that in Euro's?"

Even better, gold...or, even better than that, cotton. Kid would have doubled his dollar value this year.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

The Poland zloty is succeeding due to the fact that Poland has control over it's currency.

Again, read up on my views on fiat currency in general. Countries are getting out of the dollar. The dollar is the current reserve currency, but that is changing, and very quickly for that matter. The more that countries get out of the dollar, the closer investors will start looking at the sustainability of US monetary policy.

The common people get screwed when the circulation of money is restricted as a gold standard would do. Simply put, there isn't enough gold to go around.

Comeon, that's a ridiculous argument. The prices of goods and services would simply adjust to the form of money being used.

Why would we voluntarily rob ourselves with inflation? Inflation is what screws people over. The Fed has a mandate to provide price stability. Has it worked?

I'm gonna remind all those America haters

Jesus, do you think that the dollar is headed in the right direction? Inflation isn't a problem? Huge debt+less global demand for US debt, that's just a fact. How will the US deal with funding it's deficits if less of the world is buying its debt?

It's popular these days to think because gold is a metal that it's value is more consistent than paper money.

It is more consistent...because its value is much much much more difficult to manipulate. It works as a trustworthy holder of value, which is all that money is. The Swiss Franc was stable for 80 years with nearly no inflation. Regarding the Great Depression, you forgot to mention that it was an artificial contraction in the middle of massive asset bubbles created through easy credit. Guess what, we're leveraged way higher now than we were then...

There's a great University there in Chicago with a stellar economics program.

Back to the original post, I don't do debt. Those people are insane. Commodities make a lot more sense :)

Remind me again why the risk of investing in Poland has risen?
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Life / Polish gimnazjums - memoirs of a teacher [32]

Compare the knowledge of an 8th grade graduate from Poland and the U.S

Poland is doing a great job playing catchup. Our cheaper private educational institutes destroy the more expensive public counterparts.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
USA, Canada / Not everyone that lives or comes from America is RICH! [300]

You're joking! how much?

Depends on the assets you have. Basically, you have to pay an artificial capital gains tax on all your assets as if you sold them immediately (including retirement plans). I don't know more than that.

Quite easily done in Switzerland and Luxembourg, I imagine!

The problem is after €70k, you're double taxed. So, if you're making say €120k in Poland, you'd take home a little over €70k. That's an additional €14k that goes over to the US for no particular reason... The larger the amount, the bigger hit. Everything over about €140k ends up being taxed at around 80-85%.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
News / Smoking ban in Polish bars and restaurants (AT LAST!) [400]

How do you recognize them?

By watching the business done in non smoking bars/non smoking sections of bars...and believe it or not, comments from the patrons.

And you do know that the vast majority of people don't smoke? So why haven't you done it already, wha'cha waiting for? I wouldn't say that pub frequenters are only smokers.

Because non smokers apparently don't go to non smoking bars in droves. The non smoking places here in Wroclaw don't do as well as the places that allow smoking. Strange considering your comment about those vast majorities :)
convex   
18 Nov 2010
News / Smoking ban in Polish bars and restaurants (AT LAST!) [400]

As you know all bars have to allow smoking otherwise some of their custom would dissaper. So a 'optional' ban is no such thing. Meanwhile the employees and non-smokers are subjected to smoke and the bar owner is legally resposible for the health effects to his staff and customers. Any bar owner who banned smoking and gave a **** about his customers and staff would be in a very poor competative position.

Right, so if more non smokers would go to non smoking bars, owners would see a market and implement non smoking laws voluntarily. I would.

The health argument is a straw man (I call him Healthicus). I sell alcohol to my customers. I'm a legal drug dealer. Alcohol kills more innocent people than second hand smoke. The health argument is only used because it backs your position of vilifying something you don't like. You want nanny regulation because you don't like cigarette smoke at the places you chose to go to, fair enough. I don't think it's needed, and believe that people that have a problem with smoke should support non smoking bars with their wallets. That's the argument.

Where is it?

In Split, on Nepotova in the Palace.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
News / Smoking ban in Polish bars and restaurants (AT LAST!) [400]

Agreed.

Then what's the problem? I don't mind it turned around as well, because it still makes the point I've been backing the entire time. If I were a smoker, I wouldn't whine about going to a bar where the owner decided to ban smoking. I would just go to a smoking bar...you know, like it's always been. If the owner decides to ban or allow smoking, why should I tell them how to run their business? I'll vote with my wallet, it's a great system which doesn't require any additional investment, no additional policing, and no unfair competitive advantage to bars which can afford to be compliant with the new law. Best of all, it's been around forever and you can use it in every situation in life instead of having to wait for some big daddy to legislate it.

Exactly that is how democracy works. Sorry. I'm usually not even in favour of this, but just this one time it works for me...

Right, which is fair enough for public places. Bus stops, even parks (as ridiculous as that is), sidewalks, streets...But in private places, property rights are sacred and legislation restricting them should be weighed very carefully. I don't believe this issue qualifies as "being important enough to further dilute property rights".

I see your point, really do, but now, I can happily visit your bar! Ain't that a good news! ;)

We allow smoking. You're welcome to pop by.

I have nothing against it, I think. But doing this, you'll loosse clients too. And in the long run (it's just the firs week of the ban) you will find out not much has changed, and there will not be a drop-down to most places. Is your place in the basement by the way?

In all the studies which have been undertaken, large chain bars either continue along, business as usual, or see a slight upswing in business. Small bars take a heavy hit.

No, it's ground floor in the middle of Diocletian's Palace.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
News / Smoking ban in Polish bars and restaurants (AT LAST!) [400]

- But smokers invade also the public space too, not only private. This law hopefully will get things to normal.

Public spaces should be open to the tyranny of the majority, fair enough...but private spaces shouldn't. My argument way back during the opening shots of this thread :)

So maybe smokers should form some smoking clubs, and stop whining.

Fair enough, then allow bar owners to convert their places into private smoking clubs. They already had that choice in the past, and that was legislated away...
convex   
18 Nov 2010
News / Smoking ban in Polish bars and restaurants (AT LAST!) [400]

What some thing like this?

Heh :)

I've spend my life have whiny smokers shitting in my face. Now the boot's on the other foot - screw you.

No one forces you to go to private establishments where the owners allow smoking, why in god's name would you go to a place that had an environment that you didn't like? It was a free country, you could go wherever you want. Choosing to go somewhere and then claiming some sort of oppression is hilarious. The boot is definitely on the foot alright.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
USA, Canada / Not everyone that lives or comes from America is RICH! [300]

$91,400 isn't exactly pocket change, man.

The amount isn't the point, it's the concept. The US is one of the only countries that taxes based on worldwide income. On a side note, that's not even €70k..and amount easily reachable without too much effort in quite a few places on the globe. There's also an exemption for housing, but it's quite low as well

At the same token it doesn't affect many people and as far as I know giving up US citizenship is the only way to avoid the tax (I read somewhere that last year ~450 people or so did just that).

It affects quite a few people who are stupid enough to declare worldwide income (quite a few of us idiots around though). Those 450 people a year are fairly high net worth productive individuals...it's not many people, granted, but on the other hand, the US doesn't have all that many multimillionaires and billionaires. Some pretty famous folks have given up their passports for tax reasons. There's also an exit tax :)

No, not everyone that comes from America is rich...an appropriate quote, "some are, some aren't".

Thank the tax-exempt "non-partisan" (LOL) ACLU for it. The states are terrified of getting slammed with lawsuits and the special tax code ACLU enjoys allows them to keep doing it. If ACLU sues a state and loses they're NOT responsible for the court costs of the entity they sued, something that's a common procedure otherwise.

Merry Christmas from the ACLU.

If I sue a state and lose, I'm not responsible for the governments legal fees. If Boeing sues a city over an issue and loses, they're not responsible for the governments legal fees.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

You know I wasn't talking about any investment, you're not that stupid convex.

What are you talking about? Apparently I am that stupid, sorry for taking you at face value. It's a forum, not much time to take it at anything else.

and what does it mean for an average Pole, almost nothing (for most of Poles actually nothing at all). I'm in touch with my friends in Poland and they keep telling me that absolutely nothing is changing that would be worth mentioning.

The runs contrary to what I see, and what is posted on this very forum on a daily basis. Lodz the boat posted a great message on this today. If you can't tell that there's been a dramatic increase in the quality of life and purchasing power for the average Pole over the last 10 years, you're completely out of touch.

Ottawa vs Carolina ice hockey game now (see you in a little bit)

What's a hockey? :)
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

You asked me:

I see you're fighting like a lion to prove your point, how come you never do it when it comes to "your" country and people.

And I answered:

My point is there is plenty of money to be made in Poland. I wrote the same thing about the US over and over tonight.

Not quite sure what you're getting at. I argue about realistic things that I believe in. The Polish market is growing by leaps and bounds, what's the problem?
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

I told you, she wasn't alone. According to what she said, it was whole bunch of other businesses struggling too.

Yea, stupid investment... Lots of people make stupid investments. I've pointed some of them out on this very forum.

investing too. Now tell me something, I see you're fighting like a lion to prove your point, how come you never do it when it comes to "your" country and people. Just wondering.

Seemed to be about bonds, I read it again. My point is there is plenty of money to be made in Poland. I wrote the same thing about the US over and over tonight. If you didn't read it, fair enough. I'm not hot on dollar investments at the moment for obvious reasons.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

So what am I supposed to believe, the good numbers or someone who was telling me about her problems with tears in her eyes?

A stupid investment in Poland will be a stupid investment anywhere. The poor lady made a terrible investment.

The article is about bonds though.

I call wiggle crap.

Call whatever you want. As far as fiat currencies go, which I am completely against, NBP has managed theirs fairly well to achieve their objectives, which screw over the common people, as all fiat currencies do.

I stated that it was partly due to the fact that P-Land hadn't yet been sucked into the Euro hole that their economy had better weathered this downturn than most others.

I've always said that. That is the only reason that the Polish economy weathered the correction. Said that over and over and over again. I still don't like fiat currencies because they screw people over year on year.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

I recall that when I said something similar you jumped me with your usual contrarian blahblah. :s

Yea, it's all relative. Compared to the Dollar and the Euro, it's great. I mean as far as fiat currency is concerned... But, it's fiat currency, which is crap. Make sense? It's not a one dimensional issue.
convex   
18 Nov 2010
USA, Canada / Not everyone that lives or comes from America is RICH! [300]

Roads are paid for by you and I by proxy to make it seem like the government paid for it. Better option, lets just pay it directly and cut out of the middleman?

This seems to be turning into the political thread again...
convex   
18 Nov 2010
USA, Canada / Not everyone that lives or comes from America is RICH! [300]

When you start talking like that, it's scary. What if that devestates the country by shrinking the economy? We have to tread carefully, not do anything too hasty and extreme.

If the economy is fake to begin with...

Research what the country was like before the fed and you will see how much growth and progress has occurred because of it. The fed has not been entirely bad.

Delegating control of the money supply to a private company...why? Why is it ok for some people to be able to magic money out of thin air? What happens when that trust system collapses? The Fed has give us stead inflation, which is the worst kind of tax because it hits those lease able to afford it.

The fed has paid for so much, it's made everyone's life easier in so many ways. Next time you take a drive to your local supermarket in your automobile on asphalt roads, thank the fed.

The Fed didn't pay for anything. Those bankers weren't working on the road crews, nor the quarries to get the rock, or the oil fields to pull the oil. The Fed isn't providing any productivity. They DEVALUE your money year on year.
convex   
17 Nov 2010
USA, Canada / Not everyone that lives or comes from America is RICH! [300]

it's not really 'the world' doing the lending, it's the Federal Reserve and IMF. And they actually have no money to lend so they just print it and pretend nothing's up.

As far as foreign investors, it's the Japanese and the Chinese. The Germans are in quite deep as well. The IMF hasn't loaned anything to the US. The Fed is buying most of the debt.

I've heard talk that certain economists expect the dollar to fall pretty rapidly over just the next year.

Once countries start divesting of dollar assets, the game is over. Bond sales over the last year haven't exactly been stellar.

o they print money to cover expenses and try to maintain their standards of living.

Yup, all fiat money only works as long as the trust is maintained. Once you lose trust, the "money" reverts back to paper and ink.
convex   
17 Nov 2010
Law / The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly [90]

Poland isn't part of the Euro zone, which is nearly as failed of a currency as the Dollar. The Zloty is actually managed very well, and the Polish economy is doing well compared to most (based on the numbers).

from the article:

Poland has “no need” to sell bonds

Also from the article and completing the title:

“The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly,” said Miroslaw Budzicki, analyst at PKO, one of the 12 primary dealers at government bond sales. “In the longer term, bonds may benefit as Poland’s fiscal situation is better than on the periphery but a knee-jerk reaction is to sell the longer end.”

convex   
17 Nov 2010
USA, Canada / Not everyone that lives or comes from America is RICH! [300]

You can't just keep raising taxes forever with most of the money going to pay this huge debt. It's time to pay down the debt by reducing govt.

Which in turn makes everyone richer. The government doesn't have any money of its own.. Everything that is paid out has to be taken away from productive enterprises....