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Posts by andy b  

Joined: 26 Nov 2007 / Male ♂
Last Post: 1 Dec 2009
Threads: Total: 4 / In This Archive: 0
Posts: Total: 156 / In This Archive: 39
From: Krakow, Poland
Speaks Polish?: a little

Displayed posts: 39 / page 2 of 2
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andy b   
22 Jul 2009
Real Estate / IS IT A GOOD TIME TO INVEST IN POLISH REAL ESTATE? [83]

On this topic, here is an article from Warsaw Business Journal: wbj.pl/article-46148-polands-next-property-boom.html?type=lim

Like everything, you have to take this views with a grain of salt, and it is written by someone who has a vested interest in the real estate marketing in Poland improving. You may agree with some points and disagree with others. Certainly, this view is very bullish. It fails to mention what, in my opinion, is the biggest issue facing the real estate market at present, and that is the lack of access to mortgage finance, both for individual investors and developers alike. The vast majority of buyers in Poland need some kind of finance to fund a purchase, and if this is not forthcoming, they will not be able buy, simple. Let's hope the banks start to lend again soon...
andy b   
16 Apr 2009
Real Estate / Luksa - Big problems with developer in Lwowska, Krakow [79]

ANYONE KNOW IF LUKSA IS STILL SELLING APARTMENTS IN THIS DEVELOPMENT?

Luksa is not selling any apartments in this development at present. They are building something nearby on Plac Bohaterow Ghetta which they are calling Villa Wisla, villawisla.pl

I know this is still unresolved for a lot of people that bought in this investment, and that many investors are still waiting to get their money back. I wish you luck and suggest you keep your lawyer engaged on this case
andy b   
4 Nov 2008
Travel / Weekend in Katowice [25]

There is a new Irish bar in Katowice on ul. Wawelska 1 called "Irish mBassy". They are having the grand opening party on Saturday 15th November. Could be a good night!
andy b   
26 Jun 2008
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

• How much is Capital Gains Tax (CGT) in Poland and how does it work?

The tax laws related to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on the sale of real property were changed at the beginning of 2007.

Main points of old regime (for purchases completed before January 1st 2007):

- If you hold your property for 5 years you will not be subject to CGT. (It is calculated on a yearly basis, rather than monthly. For example, if you bought your property in May 2004, then the five year period starts from January 2005. No CGT is payable if you sell from January 2010 onwards.)

- If you sell within 5 years, then you are subject to CGT at 10% of the sales price. However, if within two weeks of selling the property, you declare your intention to reinvest the proceeds in Poland (contacting ministry and tax office), then you are not subject to the tax. The reinvestment must occur within a period of 2 years, otherwise you will have to pay the CGT.

Main points of new regime (for purchases completed after January 1st 2007):

- Five year rule abolished.

- Only sellers who have been resident (legally registered) in their own property for at least a year are eligible to sell a property without CGT.

- Other sellers are liable for CGT at 19% of the profit realized on the sale. The profit is calculated after all fees are taken into account, including notary costs and agency commissions.
andy b   
26 Jun 2008
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

You have been living in Krakow for 4.5 years, recently you have worked as a mortgage and property consultant/specialist, correct? So you know the market and real estate situation at first hand. What can you add to everything what was said here?

Yes, correct.
I don't really know where to start! There are so many points I could raise here.

Is there a real estate bubble in Krakow? My opinion is no, there isn't.
Perhaps this time one year ago, you could have argued that there was. Thankfully, prices stopped rising and some common sense entered the market. Prices just couldn't keep rising at the pace they were.

One year down the line, what can we see?

The average price per m2 in Krakow is 7500 PLN per m2, not much different from this time last year and now 15% below Warsaw. In the suburbs this means you could get a newbuild apartment for less than 6000 PLN per m2 (in developer's standard of course) and in the centre you can pay up to 15000-20000 per m2.

There is a lot more supply than a year ago in Krakow. The lack of spatial planning in Polish cities (which Pawian mentioned) are still an issue, but there was a lot of new apartments approved to be built in 2006/7 and they are now coming to the market.

There is still pent-up demand from the Poles for new apartments.

The fact is, the majority of Poles still live in substandard accommodation (whether it be rundown kamienicas in the centre or in blocks from the 60s and 70s in the suburbs), and as wages rise, then they aspire to get something larger and newer.

The boom in Poland in recent years was partly driven by easier access to credit as the Polish mortgage/banking market competition increased. This has halted somewhat in the past year due to the credit crunch, though the Polish experience is nowhere near as bad as in the USA or some parts of Western Europe.

So right now, we have a situation where buyers have the upper hand. They still want to buy apartments, but they are holding off, seeing if the owners/developers will reduce their prices. Alternatively, buyers can just be more discerning, waiting for the apartment that ticks all the boxes. (Pavel, this is probably not an apartment on aleja SÅ‚owackiego).

The Polish economic situation is also worth mentioning. Unemployment continues to fall (now 10%) and wages continue to rise (around 10% per annum). Inflation has moved higher, but this is a worldwide problem, and at 4%, Poland's inflation is still well below most of it's central and Eastern neighbours. The central bank of Poland has also used it's monetary policy powers to raise local interest rates and try stem inflation, something which a lot of governments around the world have failed to do. Essentially, the Polish economy still looks good, GDP growth is still high (around 6%) and foreign funds continue to flow into the economy. There are still lots of EU structural funds to be spent, which will stimulate the economy further, though we will wait to see whether the new roads and other infrastructure improvements mooted over the next few years will actually materialise!

Poland is such a big market in the region (population almost 40m) that it's property market still warrants attention from investors. You will just have to take a longer term view if investing now. Expect the prices to remain fairly stable over the course of 2008 and 2009, but for steady price growth to kick back in from 2010 onwards. This is a commonly held view if you read research from the major players in the market (maybe they are biased, but aren't we all?)

Foreign investors piled into Poland between 2003-2007. The earlier you got into Poland, the more money you made. I can now see many of these investors looking for the exit door. Not only has the PLN value of their properties risen strongly (even 100-200%, but the zloty has appreciated against all major currencies, particularly in the past year, making the gains even higher.

The argument that foreigners were responsible for the boom in Poland is flawed. They have only made up a small part of a very big market, and perhaps only influenced prices in the premium end of the market, luxury apartments in city centres for example. Some foreign developers have also paid far too much for building land as well.

So, if you look at Poland now with a foreign eye, and convert the prices on offer back into GBP/EUR/USD, sure it looks expensive. But it's all relative. The story of Poland has a long way to go, and I really think we are only in the first stage of a really impressive growth story.

I could have touched on many other issues, but must get back to work.
andy b   
19 Mar 2008
Real Estate / Luksa - Big problems with developer in Lwowska, Krakow [79]

I work for a real estate agency here in Krakow. We had two clients invest in this development with Luksa (called 'Lwowska Residence'). I am not sure the reasoning behind the developer not wanting to proceed with this investment. More than likely they sold it too cheaply in the first place, and either want to sell on the plot or resell the apartments at higher prices. Obviously, this is a developer not to be trusted. My advice to you is to try and get your money back, and then move on. One of our clients has already been paid his money back (plus a penalty), and the other one should have his money back shortly.

Regarding your question about Bud Mar and it's investment nearby ('Adonis Residence' I think it is called). Well, they are very close to delivering the finished apartments. Very late, but at least the clients will get what they paid for, unlike Lwowska Residence
andy b   
26 Nov 2007
Real Estate / Mortgage in Poland (rules, rates, types, websites)? [26]

Thanks for the link cezarek, classic photos on that site.
The girls certainly look good in their matching outfits, though I have no idea if they are any good at arranging mortgages....