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Poland could emerge as new European and world power. If? [116]
I was looking up older topics and found this very interesting thread...
History has a habit of repeating itself. Poland was a formidable regional power and used to have borders with the Ottoman Empire and shores on both the Black and Baltic seas.
Geopolitics worked against Poland when Russia and the Austro-Hungarian empires wanted to expand, and again when Russia and Germany wanted to expand. The specific geography of Poland makes it difficult to defend against an invasion from BOTH East and West at the same time.
The biggest historical problem for Poland over the last few hundred years has been Russia. Poland only got weaker when Russia got stronger.
However, this is set to change. While Russia might look strong, she is getting weaker from inside, because the very fabric that holds Russian society together is dissolving with the sharp and rapid decline in Russian population, in addition to problems that were introduced during the life of the Soviet Union but were not (and are not likely to be) resolved now. Russia is going to implode, and it is only a matter of time. Since Eastern European countries like Belarus and Ukraine are too weak and too unorganized at the moment, it is in my opinion (and in the opinion of analysts like George Friedman) likely that Russia will lose strategic superiority and eventually strategic parity with Poland within the next 20-40 years.
When Russia falls, Turkey and Poland will inevitably compete for influence in Central & Eastern Europe and in the Balkans - which is not historically new. Germany is likely to stand with Turkey against Poland (surprise!). However, it is logical that other nations (Western European nations and the US) will be significantly less tolerant to German movement this time around and this will backfire at Germany very quickly and very decisively. The US will already be annoyed with Turkey because Turkey will be (and has in fact already started) trying to spread her influence in the oil rich Middle Eastern countries like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. This is a big no-no for the US and she will go as far as she has to to defend her strategic interest in the region, even if it means falling out with Turkey or outright war with Turkey.
So just like Western European nations are not likely to allow Germany to move, the US is not likely to allow Turkey to move. Which pretty much allows Poland to spread her influence (uncontested) throughout Eastern and Central Europe and in the Balkans.
I think that WWIII will be mainly between Poland and Turkey and will take place between 2030-2060. Eventually, most of the Western world will stand against Turkey due to religious xenophobia.
So in answer to the original post, yes, Poland is rising again. But the ride might be quite bumpy...
