kondzior
2 Sep 2012
Life / Poland needs more immigrants and their children - which nationalities are the best? [518]
I opt for "Iranian solution":
Any solution to this problem is going to have tradeoffs involved. For example, female dominated European societies have elected to import a bunch of foreigners to make up the demographic shortfall, with results that we've discussed ad nauseum.
Iran has hit upon a solution that could reverse the demographic decline without endangering their unique national character. That solution is sending women back to the kitchen. If they pull it off, they could ensure that in 100 years Iran will still be recognizably Iranian, unlike certain Western countries which will no longer be recognizable due to the influx of foreigner.
I for one applaud Iran for this measure.
One can wonder why these ad hominem attacks are tolerated by mods.
Anyway, the the topic at hand is fertility.
Or, more precisely, sub-replacement fertility, the same problem entire Europe has.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility
Shrinking the population using this method has some bad side effects.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility#Effects
As the fertility rate drops, less and less children are born. But advances in medicine mean that old people hang on for a longer time.
So under sustained sub replacement fertility, the population ages, dramatically. Take Japan as an example; in 1989 only 11.6% of the population was over 65. By 2005 over 21% of the population was over 65. If current trends continue, then by 2050 over 38% of Japan's population will be over 65.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan
Today approximately one in four Japanese people is over the age of 65. This creates a high "old age dependency ratio" - few workers and lots of retirees. Currently, Japan's retiree population is 35.1% the size of Japan's labor force. But by 2050, Japan's retiree population will be 73.8% the size of its labor force. IE: Every four workers will be supporting three retirees.
economist/node/13611235
Fewer workers supporting more retirees creates a large burden on the economy of a country. Health care and pension costs increase, but there are fewer workers to pay for them. Harvard Economists David Bloom and David Canning attribute at least one third of a country's economic success (or failure) to the dependency ratio.
hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5539.html
Some European countries have tried to avoid this demographic crunch through immigration. Arguably, this hasn't gone so well for reasons we've discussed in many other threads. And the dirty secret is that they can't possibly bring in enough immigrants to solve the problem anyway. Italy would need to bring in 2.2 million immigrants annually just to maintain its worker to retiree ratio.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Europe#Italy
Another potential way out is to have more children. But it isn't easy to reverse the problem in this way. As each generation reproduces at a sub replacement level, the next generation has a smaller and smaller pool of fertile women. This creates a sort of "reverse compound interest" effect, where the population decline accelerates, even though the fertility level stays at the same sub replacement level.
It's probably too late for Western Europe to reverse the problem by having more children, but it may not be too late for Iran if they act quickly and drastically. Recent fertility rates have been disastrous, but more than half of Iran's population is still under 35.
Educated women have less children, as do career women. They are after all, busy with university and careers during their prime child bearing years. So limiting education for women makes sense from that perspective. But even more important is the issue raised by that horrible British lawyer troll, Shirin Ebadi. This is a big step towards smashing Iran's fledgling feminist movement.
If Iran can keep women in the kitchen, barefoot and pregnant for another 100 years or so, it can stave off population decline while many of its rivals succumb to it. This will give it enormous power, both economically and otherwise. Also, it can maintain its national character, instead of importing foreigners to make up for demographic shortfalls.
Maybe, just maybe, the same solution could be used by Poland. It would be much more difficult to introduce such a measures, though. It may be virtually impossible if Poland is still the member of the EU, so regaining our independence should be the first step.
I opt for "Iranian solution":
Any solution to this problem is going to have tradeoffs involved. For example, female dominated European societies have elected to import a bunch of foreigners to make up the demographic shortfall, with results that we've discussed ad nauseum.
Iran has hit upon a solution that could reverse the demographic decline without endangering their unique national character. That solution is sending women back to the kitchen. If they pull it off, they could ensure that in 100 years Iran will still be recognizably Iranian, unlike certain Western countries which will no longer be recognizable due to the influx of foreigner.
I for one applaud Iran for this measure.
One can wonder why these ad hominem attacks are tolerated by mods.
Anyway, the the topic at hand is fertility.
Or, more precisely, sub-replacement fertility, the same problem entire Europe has.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility
Shrinking the population using this method has some bad side effects.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility#Effects
As the fertility rate drops, less and less children are born. But advances in medicine mean that old people hang on for a longer time.
So under sustained sub replacement fertility, the population ages, dramatically. Take Japan as an example; in 1989 only 11.6% of the population was over 65. By 2005 over 21% of the population was over 65. If current trends continue, then by 2050 over 38% of Japan's population will be over 65.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan
Today approximately one in four Japanese people is over the age of 65. This creates a high "old age dependency ratio" - few workers and lots of retirees. Currently, Japan's retiree population is 35.1% the size of Japan's labor force. But by 2050, Japan's retiree population will be 73.8% the size of its labor force. IE: Every four workers will be supporting three retirees.
economist/node/13611235
Fewer workers supporting more retirees creates a large burden on the economy of a country. Health care and pension costs increase, but there are fewer workers to pay for them. Harvard Economists David Bloom and David Canning attribute at least one third of a country's economic success (or failure) to the dependency ratio.
hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5539.html
Some European countries have tried to avoid this demographic crunch through immigration. Arguably, this hasn't gone so well for reasons we've discussed in many other threads. And the dirty secret is that they can't possibly bring in enough immigrants to solve the problem anyway. Italy would need to bring in 2.2 million immigrants annually just to maintain its worker to retiree ratio.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Europe#Italy
Another potential way out is to have more children. But it isn't easy to reverse the problem in this way. As each generation reproduces at a sub replacement level, the next generation has a smaller and smaller pool of fertile women. This creates a sort of "reverse compound interest" effect, where the population decline accelerates, even though the fertility level stays at the same sub replacement level.
It's probably too late for Western Europe to reverse the problem by having more children, but it may not be too late for Iran if they act quickly and drastically. Recent fertility rates have been disastrous, but more than half of Iran's population is still under 35.
Educated women have less children, as do career women. They are after all, busy with university and careers during their prime child bearing years. So limiting education for women makes sense from that perspective. But even more important is the issue raised by that horrible British lawyer troll, Shirin Ebadi. This is a big step towards smashing Iran's fledgling feminist movement.
If Iran can keep women in the kitchen, barefoot and pregnant for another 100 years or so, it can stave off population decline while many of its rivals succumb to it. This will give it enormous power, both economically and otherwise. Also, it can maintain its national character, instead of importing foreigners to make up for demographic shortfalls.
Maybe, just maybe, the same solution could be used by Poland. It would be much more difficult to introduce such a measures, though. It may be virtually impossible if Poland is still the member of the EU, so regaining our independence should be the first step.
