News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]

Indeed, I'm rather looking forward to it. Kukiz's links with Ruch Narodowy almost guarantee another ruined government for PiS and yet another 8 years of PO.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


That poll seems out of sync with the rest, so I wouldn't take it too seriously. Both ZL and Nowoczesna are attracting support because their economic policies are quite sound, and it doesn't seem credible that they would suddenly fail.

Another poll today suggests this :

PiS - 36%
PO - 25%
ZL - 8%
Kukiz - 7% (where did this come from?)
PSL - 6%
Nowoczesna - 5%

Translates into...

PiS - 214
PO - 143
ZL - 39
Kukiz - 34
PSL - 20
Nowoczesna - 9

So the generally agreed outcome from the last opinion polls is that PiS will require Kukiz to win control of the government, and that they also will be far, far short of any possibility of changing the constitution. I think we all know that Kukiz would take the offer of entering government, but given his association with Ruch Narodowy and other unsavoury types - does anyone believe that such a coalition would be good for PiS?

PiS need to be very, very careful though. PO are far more tactically aware than them, and it's not beyond the realms of possibility to suggest that PO and the others could intentionally refuse to allow anyone but Kaczyński to enter as Prime Minister, knowing that he would destroy everything.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


Seems that you can't count, because...


Pretty clear that it isn't 50/50. More to the point, as Polonius has explained well on numerous occasions - a coalition with Kukiz would be the worst possible scenario for PiS.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


Keep praying, because it's the only hope you've got.

As for your calculations, you do realise that 49.2% in the opinion polls will translate to a lot more than 50% of the seats?

It does make me laugh though that Kukiz voters still haven't figured out that a vote for Kukiz is a vote for Premier Kaczyński, who will introduce far more "system" than they ever imagined.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]

Except it isn't. Tusk defeated Kaczyński in many electoral districts in the US in 2011, for instance.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


May I remind you that it was Duda and other PiS members that were caught stealing from the people, not PO?


Why would they need to pay someone off when PiS has plenty of lunatics supporting them?

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


It doesn't matter what they were in reply to - the point is that he made such statements to begin with. All he had to do was say "We've moved on from this level of discourse, please ask a more sensible question". If such questions kept coming, he should have just ended the meeting.


You're forgetting that the type of people to turn up to a Macierewicz meeting are likely to be the most hardcore of PiS supporters.

Macierewicz can't stop himself - even PiS are admitting that he isn't really under their control.

News / Have PO (Platforma) operatives in Poland fallen into a panic? [332]


It seems to me to be a very clear attempt to try and take the pressure off Duda and nothing more.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]

PiS are in utter disarray as usual. It's now clear that Szydło had no control over Macierewicz, and the weaker/lower candidates for PiS are now very, very angry as Macierewicz may have cost them a place in the Sejm. Kaczyński has apparently cancelled all his public appearances, but the damage has been done.

Amazing how things change in a couple of days in politics.

News / Have PO (Platforma) operatives in Poland fallen into a panic? [332]


Yes, perhaps Gregy would like to explain why he's ignoring Duda's misuse of public money while trying to attack Komorowski.

Seems to me as if it's rather PiS that have fallen into a panic.

Classifieds / Seeking Business jobs in Poland for a soon to be University Grad!! [5]


Sure, I'll send you some contacts tomorrow or Friday :) I'll also send you some links to Facebook groups for professionals that can help you find a job.


Actually, Poland is a pretty great place to start - there's a *lot* of jobs coming here in that sort of field, so you can start here and then get transferred back to the US in a few years :)

Classifieds / Seeking Business jobs in Poland for a soon to be University Grad!! [5]


Mocha, I might have some good ideas for you - is your heart set on Kraków, or would you consider elsewhere?

I can give you a potential contact if you want one?

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


The numbers are starting to make very interesting reading. There's a new poll, and the following seat projection was released...

PiS - 202
PO - 143
ZL - 43
Nowoczesna - 40
PSL - 22
Kukiz - 9
MN - 1

wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-parlamentarne-2015-sondaz-ibris-do-sejmu-wchodzi-6-partii/9p0qg0

The poll was taken yesterday and the numbers released today, so it clearly shows that the re-emergence of Kaczyński is hurting PiS. There's no way that PiS could hope to govern with a minority government with such opposition. In theory, PiS/PSL/Kukiz would give them 234 seats, but does anyone believe that such a coalition would have any real chance of survival?

It will be very, very interesting to see what happens now that Macierewicz is back. If he costs PiS even 5 seats, they're in trouble.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


With him and Macierewicz both making a return, and elements now saying that perhaps Szydło will get her chance in 4 years and that Kaczyński's time is now, they're doing a splendid job.

Life / Buying a laptop in Poland - where/whats a good deal? [32]


Not true. The difference is minimal, and in my recent experience, things have actually been slightly cheaper in Poland vs Germany.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]

Latest poll...

PiS 34%
PO 24%
ZL 10%
Nowoczesna 9%
Kukiz 8%
PSL 6%
KORWiN 3%

fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2015/sondaze/news-najnowszy-sondaz-przed-wyborami-parlamentarnymi,nId,1898772

Not much to say, apart from that Kaczyński needs to get out of the headlines. They were polling in the high 30's/low 40's before he made his return, and that 5% difference could make a huge difference later.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


My feeling on the matter is that they will shift to PiS on election day, or they won't go to vote (especially if the weather is bad) - it just doesn't seem credible that he can attract any significant support with the random collection of individuals that he has.


The thing is that PiS aren't doomed to fail automatically with a minority government. There are numerous examples of successful minority governments - for instance, the 2007-2011 Scottish Government worked well because the ruling party proposed good, sensible legislation - and it was politically impossible for the 2nd biggest party to oppose it, even though they were furious with the situation. In such a scenario however, it would be vital to keep Kaczyński and Macierewicz out of front line politics.

But PiS also have to be careful now. I've seen some nonsense that they're proposing to get rid of the Bologna Agreement in higher education - this essentially means that a Polish degree is the same as a German one which in turn is the same as an Italian one and so on. Such proposals won't help - the average person that cares about Bologna is not going to support abolishing it.

Work / Poland's ZUS-office visit for self-employed really that easy? [5]


Not anymore. As of 1st March, the foreigners ID/passport number may be used instead.

USA, Canada / American Polonia. Wisconsin - the most Polish state? [112]


Polonius, how is this determined? Census data?

Law / Help with Postal Customs office in Poland. I need to get an item that is being withheld there. Rolex imitation [30]


I can recommend someone - he's capable of organising a very good defence in this area.

Can you leave your e-mail address and I'll pass it on to him, please? He's based in Poznań.

Work / Recruitement Process / Interview with an IT company in Poland [13]


Not a good idea. Someone that moves on very quickly too often (it can happen once, more than once is a bad sign) will have question marks over their commitment to a company and will find their career stalling.

There's no such thing as a "job for life", but the average employer would be very suspicious of someone that jumped from job to job like that.

Life / Need the best Poland data sim card provider for use in personal unlocked wifi device (mifi). [21]


Not true.


No, you won't. You lose the ability to make calls and nothing more.

Real Estate / Buying a freehold house in Poland - legal contract? How does the deposit work - to Lawyer 'in trust' or? [6]

I remember a story (Harry, was it you that told me? I don't remember who told me...) about how someone bought a flat expecting it to be sold the way that it was presented to them. The reality was that everything upon everything was stripped apart from the floor - even light switches, plug sockets and the toilet was removed.

Study / Bachelors in Civil / Mechanical Engineering Degree in Poland [39]


Universities do - some more than others, as it depends very much on the faculty. UAM's science departments are modern and decent with well equipped labs for instance, but their facilities for humanities students are...pathetic.

Having said that, cooperation with industry is starting to develop. I've seen some very nice programmes involving Samsung, Intel and others and schools - the only problem is that schools aren't really clued up on how to navigate corporate ******** that inevitably accompanies such programmes.


A lot of it is down to the management of the faculty. The problem all lies with university autonomy - a poorly connected Dean who worries more about his reelection chances than his faculty will do the bare minimum to survive. A good one who genuinely cares about students will get a lot more for them. There's no excuses - the EU puts up astonishing amounts of cash for equipment and facilities, so it's just a matter of being organised.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]

Well, the big ones will, but it's worth pointing out that opinion polls can often get it badly wrong. The election this year in the UK was a great example - almost everyone was predicting that no party would win a majority, yet the Conservatives won a small but healthy majority.

The centrist voters will decide this one, and PiS need to be very, very careful with them.

Just spotted this -

dziennikwschodni.pl/wybory/n,1000168549,wybory-2015-najnowszy-sondaz-pis-zwycieza-po-i-zl-na-podium-psl-poza-sejmem.html

PiS - 201 seats
PO - 133
ZL - 64
Kukiz - 36
Nowoczesna - 19
Korwin - 5
MN - 2

The huge question right now - should such numbers stay, does PiS attempt a coalition with Kukiz (and risk Kukiz being destroyed by repeated attacks from ZL and Nowoczesna), or do they attempt to run a minority government?

I'm shocked that Kukiz is holding on though.

Travel / 24 hour food order in Poland? [5]

Of course. Plenty of them.

News / Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]


It gets more and more curious.

radiozet.pl/Wybory-2015/Wybory-parlamentarne-2015.-Sondaz-IBRiS.-PiS-przed-PO-00012084

PiS - 35.6%
PO - 23.2%
ZL - 9.3%
Nowoczesna - 8.1%
Kukiz - 7%
PSL - 6.2%
KORWiN - 2.5%

The next opinion polls after Duda's veto will be very, very interesting.

Work / Companies and pay for a Native English Teacher in Warsaw? [46]


Dominic, instead of posting insulting things, why don't you tell us how much experience you have (directly, not anecdotally) with the Polish and UK educational systems? I'm not talking about tutoring people from such schools.


I think it's worth being fair and saying that the elite schools might not take her - but there are endless second-tier schools that would bite her hand off.

Work / Companies and pay for a Native English Teacher in Warsaw? [46]


Nice cop out Dominic, but you seem to have ignored the fact that an English-qualified teacher with the right to teach drama and the ability to teach music will always be in demand here. I've never even seen a CV from someone qualified in the performing arts - and applicants with any PGCE are few and far between. It might not be top-tier money, but it will still be decent money by Warsaw standards.

Law / PESEL and Zameldowanie czasowe (temporary residence card) are no longer necessary in Poland? [8]


No.


Correct. It's only granted with permanent residency. However, systems have been adapted, so you can use your passport/ID number instead.


No. 2018 is the latest estimate due to the huge amount of effort to bring all the systems online and in one place.