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Poland Parliamentary elections 2015 [1060]
* PiS is going to win these elections.
Win in terms of most seats - most probably.
Win in terms of being able to win a vote of confidence for their chosen Prime Minister - not so clear.
* there's a serious likelihood they either get +50% of seats (you don't even need 40% of votes for that if a lot of support is wasted on small parties) or form a coalition with Kukiz and/or PSL.
They're not going to get 50% of the seats. ZL, Nowoczesna and the PSL are all polling above the threshold, and Kukiz has realised that shutting up is the best way to obtain at least something. With 4 small parties in the Sejm, they're not going to get a majority.
Forming a coalition with Kukiz would be suicidal for them, and the PSL aren't as stupid as PiS voters seem to think they are. It would not be in their interest in the slightest to enter a coalition with Kaczyński around, given the well-documented behaviour by him towards previous coalition partners. Furthermore, if the electoral mathematics mean that PiS+Kukiz cannot put together a majority, then the PSL are the most likely candidates to provide a new Prime Minister due to their centrist politics. Why would they go near PiS in that case?
Let's not forget that there's still a long 2 weeks to go, and PiS are stumbling now. Szydło is failing to engage the voters, PiS are already talking about Kaczyński being the Premier instead - all in all, they're by no means home.