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Posts by convex  

Joined: 25 Nov 2009 / Male ♂
Last Post: 28 Nov 2011
Threads: Total: 20 / In This Archive: 13
Posts: Total: 3928 / In This Archive: 3150
From: Wroclaw
Speaks Polish?: un poco...wait
Interests: aviation

Displayed posts: 3163 / page 103 of 106
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convex   
12 Jan 2010
News / Should Poland Remove Visa Restrictions? [285]

Thats not quality mate, thats the lack of money and proper legislature. Good roads are expensive and we're still a poor country.

What lack of money? Those projects are running at the same costs as equivalent construction in Germany. Are substandard materials being used? Enough money to rebuild the roads every couple of years, but not enough to do it right the first time?

Any examples?

I was talking about realestate developments, and yes, I've got some first hand examples of cracks magically appearing in walls, the apparent lack of skills with a level when creating balconies, the magic "disco lights" in rooms across the nation... As for non skilled labor, you're right.

both of the Galerie were built by Poles, they were owned partially by Germans but we're buying them out as we speak.

How's that skyscraper working out by the way?

Right, you mean like Dominikanska which was built by Hochtief, managed by ECE? 100% Polish financing

Or do you mean like the airport where JSK has the project? Also, 100% Polish financing, the Germans are just building it.

Or Pasaz Grunwaldzki....nevermind

Maybe it's Plac Grunwaldzki, the round about that you're talking about? The one that took twice as long to build as the shopping center and seems to have stonework done by a drunken autistic kid?

It so happens i'm a project manager as well as leading our company promotion campaigns and i never met a foreigner contemporary here in Poland, in fact there's very few foreigners at all here

I've worked with three large banks and a construction company here and not once have I come across a Polish program manager. But that's just my experience.

stories on how Poles suck at everything and everything thats done in Poland is done by good white men from the West

I'm not saying that Poles suck at everything. I just think that it is difficult to find good quality work in Poland. Cheap is abundant, quality isn't. It is getting better, but right now there is still a very prevalent "promise everything and under deliver" thing going on. Hell, Lot even takes their planes to Germany for their C checks.

Care to elaborate? Just last month FT was praising Poles for their wise currency handling but you seem to "know" something quite opposite:)

Yea, it's really wise actually. I've praised NBP on this before. By keeping the zloty low, it keeps wages and investment costs for foreign investors low. That way, managed to ride out the "crisis" with a devalued zloty. It was a great move. Business won't have any interest having the value of the zloty move any...hopefully the lack in purchasing power will be made up with the new jobs.

Huge tax breaks?

I must have misread.
paiz.gov.pl/index/?id=cfbc6c5cfb8a3e10fab12aa3512153df
The corporate tax rate has also dropped down to 19% for 2009.
convex   
12 Jan 2010
News / Should Poland Remove Visa Restrictions? [285]

Thats because of a certain stereotype that existed and still does exist in the West, but the Market is not governed by stereotypes but by the raw gain, on every possible field the best workers out there are the Poles

I look at the terrible locally built roads, the substandard craftsmanship of the new developments, the fact that most every large construction project is handled by a foreign company (hey, I just read that Monostal is getting the boot in Wroclaw and is being replaced by Max Boegl...), almost all program and project managers that I know in Poland are foreigners, software coming out of Poland is terrible... I see the difference in quality at the dealership when my car gets worked on, all the Polish aircraft owners take their planes to German or Czech shops to get work done... I think there is a huge difference between "It's a good job for the price" and "It's a good job". It's getting better, but lets be serious, Poland is competitive because the government is throwing in everything but the kitchen sink in order to keep the zloty (and labor) low and keep the FDI coming in through special economic zones and huge tax breaks for creating cheap labor jobs.
convex   
12 Jan 2010
News / Should Poland Remove Visa Restrictions? [285]

I associate Polish labor with a lot of things; honest, hardworking, cheap. I've never managed to attach "quality" to that list.
convex   
12 Jan 2010
News / Should Poland Remove Visa Restrictions? [285]

Well it is really if youre a UK citizen with a family to support being undercut by cheap Polish migrants.

Open those borders up, I'd much rather pay an Indian 1000zl a month to work construction than the overpriced polish labor that one has to employ around here.
convex   
12 Jan 2010
News / Should Poland Remove Visa Restrictions? [285]

In our current democracy you do not have this fear.

I think he's referring to people like Theo van Gogh, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Geert Wilders, Kurt Westergaard...
convex   
12 Jan 2010
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

back (slightly) on topic...

Glassdoor has 80 something salaries for jobs in Poland
glassdoor.com/index.htm
convex   
12 Jan 2010
USA, Canada / Moving back from Canada to Poland, yes or no? [39]

So much stuff in Ireland is hideously priced

housing is expensive (that's correcting itself at the moment). Rooms aren't really that expensive, and supermarket shopping is a bit more than over here.
convex   
12 Jan 2010
USA, Canada / Moving back from Canada to Poland, yes or no? [39]

I doubt if any money saved over 6 months will have do much for you in Poland.

Depends on where I suppose, a couple of grand goes a long way in some places.
convex   
11 Jan 2010
USA, Canada / Moving back from Canada to Poland, yes or no? [39]

if you take away living costs etc

what is the big difference in cost of living? housing is a bit more expensive. anything with labor costs included (dining out, drinking in bars, etc) is much more expensive. buying food is marginally more expensive. If you just go over to bunker away some money for 6 months, seems like a deal.
convex   
11 Jan 2010
Food / Polish culinary dislikes [83]

There is decent kvas? It really must be an acquired taste. I've given it a try every time hoping that something might have changed, but alas...
convex   
11 Jan 2010
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

Polish people who work in England, Germany are driving the new cars and buying new homes here.

Just out of curiosity, are Poles working good jobs in the UK? I know the pay in Germany is crap for the service and labor jobs that most Poles are doing there.
convex   
11 Jan 2010
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

I am talking about Warsaw here.

You could be as well talking about any large city in Poland.
convex   
11 Jan 2010
Classifieds / Motorcycle trip from Poland to South Africa in the fall [25]

Mercy Corps. Raised close to €1500 from friends and sponsors. Going to setup the same deal for the Africa trip, stickers for donations, it'll probably be doctors without borders this year.
convex   
11 Jan 2010
Classifieds / Motorcycle trip from Poland to South Africa in the fall [25]

That sounds like amazing trip. I was planning on riding down the West coast...and one day going back to South Africa and going up the East coast. Unfortunately I won't be able do it in time for the World Cup.

Horizonsunlimited is terribly addictive. Too much useful information and not enough petty bickering though, I always find myself back here.

Mongolia is amazing, I drove there from the UK with a friend in a €200 Fiat Panda on a charity rally. Everything was fairly straightforward until crossing over into Mongolia, day and night. The road went from oil funded brand new highways in Siberia, to literally tracks just leading off in all directions. Had a compass and a worthless map, the Mongolians refer to their roads as streams, they're changing all the time. They have neat system called "GPS", the Ger Positioning System. Basically you drive up to closest Ger, the big half rabid dogs come out and surround your car, then the dogs are called of and the kids come out and swarm your car, you get invited inside, drink obscene amounts of vodka, eat until you're stuffed, pass out chocolate to the kids, little bottles of whiskey for the adults, and then you get directions to the next group of buildings. Repeat that 30 times, and you make it to Ulan Bator. I really want to go back and do it in a car that isn't breaking down every 5 minutes...sometimes it's nice to be able to rely on your vehicle. It's completely pristine, there is nothing at all except you and the steppe...Occasional herds of camels, horses, and lots of eagles and falcons.

I've traveled a lot for work, but this was completely different. I think doing it in a crappy car made it that much more enjoyable. Mongolia has been the most impressive place that I've been to so far. Absolutely no kitsch, everything was brutally honest. The Mongolians have really managed to keep their culture while bringing in some bits and pieces. Most are still herders, living in gers. The gers have satellite dishes and solar panels and Mongolians are just as up on world events as anyone else in the world.

Good stuff
convex   
10 Jan 2010
Life / Beggers namely Kurwa boys in Poland [70]

I remember a while back in rynek, there was a punk that asked me if I had spare money for beer. I rewarded honesty that day.
convex   
9 Jan 2010
Law / Do I need to have an invoice to deduct expenses? [11]

Signature isn't important, tax id on the invoice is. You shouldn't pay any kind of sales tax on a product that is delivered form the US, you'll pay VAT (and eventually claim it back) at customs. For services performed, it varies based on the state, but normally you shouldn't be charged sales tax for labor (services). You just submit your invoice to the accountant and call it a day.
convex   
9 Jan 2010
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

My girlfriend makes about 2200 after taxes doing accountancy work for a big company, and teaches on the side for extra income. We pay 2800 a month in rent for a large prewar apartment, and about 500 a month for bills and internet/cable. A friend of mine is a software developer (doesn't speak Polish) and makes 3500 after taxes, pays 1500 a month all in for his newly built place.

edit: we live in wroclaw
convex   
8 Jan 2010
Classifieds / Motorcycle trip from Poland to South Africa in the fall [25]

Anyone interested in going? Leaving from Poland around September. It should take about 2.5-3 months and cost around €3000 for fuel, food, visas, bribes. We're going to be taking F650GS's, would be a good idea to take the same to cut down on spares that need to be brought along. You can buy them used for around €2500 in good condition. Anyone interested?
convex   
8 Jan 2010
News / German legal discrimination against Polish speakers [209]

That's not the father's problem if Jugendamt in Hamburg doesn't have Polish
speaking workers or can't hire an interpreter.

It became his problem the moment the moment that he decided to take up residence and marry and live in a country in which German is the official language.

lack of goodwill

Lack of goodwill like someone who speaks German not speaking it because he wants to get recognition for a pet cause of his?
convex   
8 Jan 2010
News / German legal discrimination against Polish speakers [209]

during
their controlled meetings

What happened for him to require controlled meetings? It's kind of hard to have a controlled meeting when you can't control it. Maybe it would be a better idea to look at why there are controlled meetings in the first place. I know a Polish guy here who's kids live in Germany with the mother and they come over often for visits, what's different in this case?
convex   
7 Jan 2010
News / 2009 Quality of Life Index: Poland behind Czech, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia.. [52]

because basical needs such as electric, water, hospitals are for free for all?

For who exactly in Turkmenistan? Infant mortality is terribly high. It's such a paradise that it's considered high treason to speak out against working conditions, or criticize any aspect of the government. Need someone to blame? No problem, just pick someone that you fear is growing in popularity and torture them. You want medical care? No problem as long as you live in Ashgabat, glorious leader decreed that all hospitals outside of the capital should be closed. Pension payments to old retired workers were discontinued a few years back, leaving them with no means to get food or medical treatment, pensions have been partially restored after they found out that old people were dying because of lack of food and medicine (who would have thought it?). Free water, gas, and electricity sounds great, except that outside of Ashgabat, it's extremely difficult to get access to the distribution network...Not only due to lack of infrastructure, well, nepotism on a local level is insane.

You know, put your money where your mouth is. Renounce your citizenship to the bourgeois state that is shackling you and your fellow workers, and emigrate to Turkmenistan.
convex   
7 Jan 2010
USA, Canada / REFUSED A HOLIDAY VISA TO THE U.S CAUSE IM POLISH [323]

So how come Canada is #4 on the same list (120,000) and yet Canadians don't even need visas to the US?

As a percentage of total visitors, it's much lower than that of Poland. The visa waiver program works on the refusal rate and estimated overstay rate, not absolute numbers.

I assume that the overstay rate is based on estimates that are not provided openly... Basically two arbitrary numbers decide on whether a country is allowed on the VWP. Pretty shady if you ask me. And why the hell doesn't US-VISIT track outbound travelers? Wouldn't it make sense to monitor incoming and outgoing travelers?
convex   
6 Jan 2010
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

Thanks for your worthy input Avalon

Thanks alot for the builders perspective. It does make sense that new construction would cost nearly as much as it does further west (land and labor being cheaper, materials higher). Does bureaucracy affect the end price here more than in other countries that you've done development in?

Is investing in Polish real estate worth it, Yes if you live in Poland, No if your a outside investor

If you've got a 30 year note, and you plan on living there for the duration, it makes perfect sense. If you're speculating and hoping to get rid of property in 5 years at a profit...maybe not so much.

Slovakia is a good example of what will happen when Poland goes to the Euro. Once Poland no longer has control over its monetary policy, it won't be able to keep labor cheap, which will mean a decline in FDI. Worried about that bit.

Many countries are in EU like United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway and they will
probably NEVER adopt the euro.

Norway isn't part of the EU, UK and Denmark have opt-out agreements, and Sweden isn't meeting the budgetary requirements to adopt the Euro. I don't think Poland has the will to make the sacrifices needed to join the Euro anytime soon (inflation is what is holding Poland back).
convex   
4 Jan 2010
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

The problem is that they do not cost more.

What would you say is an average modest apartment in Warsaw?

50m2 +/-
400-500k?
convex   
4 Jan 2010
Real Estate / Is there a Real Estate bubble in Krakow? [60]

Someone might want to point out that this forum isn't exactly a market maker...

I think there is a correction in the works because the fundamentals don't add up for me. Try as I might, I can't figure out why apartments in Warsaw cost more than in Frankfurt.

For investors, why are you bullish on property in polish cities? Non emotional answers would be nice.

Here are my worries

rental yields are low
price to income ratio seems skewed
large percentage of foreign denominated mortgages not hedged
low wage growth (attracts foreign capital)
huge increase in prices disproportionate to wage increases
cost to borrow capital at historically low levels

on the plus side

GDP is growing (much faster than wages)
unemployment is low
low mortgage default rate (I assume, really difficult to find actual numbers)