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US dollar still falling... Change in Poland?


v99 4 | 17  
11 Apr 2008 /  #1
I have seen the dollar fall and fall to the point I am not able to support myself at the current rate. It is now 2.11

A while back a banker told me it would be 1 to 1 by the end of this year but I thought it was nonsense like people are always saying. As it has fallen I kept not changing my savings to PLN because I thought it would go back up and I would lose.

Is changing over to PLN now a smart move? Do you think it can REALLY go 1 to 1? That seems impossible.

This has crushed me financially. Don't know what to do.
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163  
11 Apr 2008 /  #2
Is changing over to PLN now a smart move?

Hard to say...

Do you think it can REALLY go 1 to 1?

No...

US dollar still falling...change?

It's time for Amero...
OP v99 4 | 17  
11 Apr 2008 /  #3
So do you think it will go back up? That would be the only reason changing would hurt me...but I just don't know what to do.

Do you think it will go under 2?

I was told it is part of the plan to inflate the PLN so the Euro change isn't so painful. And these bankers are taking out huge loans in dollars so they actually make money during the fall. I thought it was nonsense but now I just don't know.

Money sucks...especially when you don't have enough of it.

Thanks Grzegorz
scottie1113 7 | 898  
11 Apr 2008 /  #4
The dollar has been dropping like a rock against all currencies and I don't see a bottom yet. I don't think you'll ever see 1:1 but it's going to be a long time before it starts to rise again. If you can afford to sit on your dollars until then, do so.

Will it go under 2? Probably, and probably within a month or two.
ShaneConrad 1 | 11  
11 Apr 2008 /  #6
Playing with currencies is risky, gold could be safer but not as liquid. It really depends what for how long you want to hold on to your money. Every investment will fluctuate. Your best bet is safe investment e.g. money market account in either currency, or if you can live with less liquidity something like gold. PLN should be safe, but dollar is unpredictable at the moment. It can go either way. It will eventually go up. Some FED actions can push it up sooner than one may expect but you never know.
OP v99 4 | 17  
11 Apr 2008 /  #7
Yeah...my problem is I am living off of a US savings account and it has gone away at a much faster rate in the last years...not sure what to do.

If I had changed even year ago I would have made a ton of money..I never thought it would get here.
lef 11 | 478  
12 Apr 2008 /  #8
This has crushed me financially. Don't know what to do.

I don't think things will improve, in a thread going back 12 months I predicted the US$ falling to to a 2.1 ratio..(nobody listened).... best options are to sell out in Poland and take advantage of the $ or pound, you will be able to take home more pounds and dollars and start a new life in the west...ho hum.

Or stay in Poland and watch the developers go to the wall and see prices go down again. Although the recession has struck the US, it remains to be seen what it does to Poland...undoubtedly it will not be good.

I await those in the real estate business to respond and tell me Poland will grow by 6/7% in 2008.
Wroclaw Boy  
12 Apr 2008 /  #9
4.28 PLN - £1.00 Come on!!!! I for one and travelling back to you the UK and spending some of my hard earned Zloty. Hopefully it will drop to less than 4, totally achievable over the next month or two imo.

I await those in the real estate business to respond and tell me Poland will grow by 6/7% in 2008.

It will in certain sectors, not apartments.
NieMota - | 30  
12 Apr 2008 /  #10
If I had changed even year ago I would have made a ton of money..I never thought it would get here

Lets look what the advantages are - related with low exchange ratio - for you.
If you would like to become an importer of some used or new US goods, i could "sell" you some ideas.
It is easier to sell some of them now, as they are more affordable for average Polish.

Regards
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163  
12 Apr 2008 /  #11
So do you think it will go back up?

USD will probably never be strong again but I think in some time should go up to ~2.4-2.5, temporarily even more.

Do you think it will go under 2?

That's possible but not much below. Anyone talking about 1:1 is either a genius or a damn moron and I suspect rather the 2nd option. It depends If situation in the USA is just a crisis, which is going to be over in ~2 years or the begining of total disaster - It will take a few months more to know that.
Lukasz 49 | 1,746  
12 Apr 2008 /  #12
If you would like to become an importer of some used or new US goods, i could "sell" you some ideas.

I support this idea in 100%. You don't have to be professional importer, go home for holidays bring some goods and sell it for your friends. As I know nobody who came form US brings cash. Ask your friends what they would like to buy (there is list of US popular products) and honestly you are going to have nice income. So you will exchange US dollars on much higer ratio that it is now.

as to US dolar trend ... it is hard to say Polish Zloty is stronger and stronger to every currency (only Czechs currency is more expensive than it was for us) nobody knows when it is going to the end.

What is more when we look on direct foreign investemens in Poland, EU funds, Money form emigrants, imported goods ... it looks like zloty will be strong in close future (they all must sell foreign currency and buy Zloty) our central bank because of inlation decided to higher rates ... so our bonds are more popular ...
peterweg 37 | 2,321  
12 Apr 2008 /  #13
The Dollar is in for a long term fall, to what level its hard to say. It will never be as high as in the past, its a structural revaluation due to banks and investors switching from the US currency as a reserve. The US economy used to be over 50% of the worlds after ww2, now its below 25% and falling. There is nothing to support the Dollar, once confidence has gone it will be impossible to recover as there is the Euro which is far more stable and desirable - EU companies still manufacture and export goods for instance. The US economy is import and consume and its paid for by shipping paper that is devaluing.

The Zloty will not stay as high, in my opinion against most other currencies. Once the world recession hits I suspect the Polish economy will be hit very hard as its very dependant on overseas investors.
Wroclaw Boy  
12 Apr 2008 /  #14
Ask your friends what they would like to buy (there is list of US popular products) and honestly you are going to have nice income.

Whats he gonna do bring suitcases full of Levi's jeans? Maybe some profit there but he had to bring quite a few pairs.
OP v99 4 | 17  
12 Apr 2008 /  #15
I cant travel back and forth anyway due to health and financial issues.

Everything I ever brought back in the past is already sold on allegro cheaper than US costs often which I could never understand.

But like i said I cant travel and posting it is too costly plus customs. I am not a good seller anyway.
BubbaWoo 33 | 3,510  
12 Apr 2008 /  #16
Everything I ever brought back in the past is already sold on allegro cheaper than US costs often which I could never understand

lol - ive noticed that too
Lukasz 49 | 1,746  
12 Apr 2008 /  #17
The Zloty will not stay as high, in my opinion against most other currencies.

I hope so ;)

Once the world recession hits I suspect the Polish economy will be hit very hard as its very dependent on overseas investors.

It will be hit ... I don't think that harder than economies build on mortgages ...

we will see what will happen. I consider Polands situation as good in comparison to some countries.

I remember when I was telling here half year ago (or even more) about EUR/USD and opening positions ... and about crisis in USA ... :P

we will see.

as to Dollar trend look here:

stooq.com/q/?s=usdpln&c=5y&t=l&a=ln&b=1

as to Euro trend:

stooq.com/q/?s=eurpln&d=20080411

as to Pound trend:

stooq.com/q/?s=gbppln&d=20080411

all currencies related to Zloty

I think it is bad for our export ... so I hope we are going to see the end of this trends I doubt that it is going to happen tomorow ;)
peterweg 37 | 2,321  
12 Apr 2008 /  #18
The Zloty has appreciated because people have been buying it with Pounds, Euro and dollars. They have been buying property because it was cheap and re-repatriating overseas earnings. Property is no no longer so cheap and overseas investors will disappear with the world wide recession. Wages are increasing at home so workers will return and stop buying Zloty's with remittances. Employment opportunities overseas will also decrease and foreign tourist visitors will be down. Polish exports and attractiveness as a off shore location will decrease.

In a recession its the newer, smaller economies of countries that suffer more, because they depend on foreign investment.
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163  
12 Apr 2008 /  #19
Exchange rate looks so pathetic becase in the same time USD has been getting weaker and PLN stronger but Polish economy has still huge problems and looks like Tusk's government is going to do only populistic crap, Americans has been consuming too much and producing too little but after all they still have very good technologies and quite good system, so... I can't take responsibility for someone else money but If you can afford to wait more than a year then you rather shouldn't sell now but It's probably going to get worse before It gets better. Also there's (very little but exists) posibility that American economy (so USD too) is going to completely collaps.
Crow 139 | 8,291  
12 Apr 2008 /  #20
falling, falling, that`s for sure

if you ask me, considering flow of finances, with every new day we are closer and closer to Slavic Alliance
southern 75 | 7,096  
12 Apr 2008 /  #21
I think the euro is about to fall.
Lukasz 49 | 1,746  
12 Apr 2008 /  #22
It's probably going to get worse before It gets better.

:)))

if you ask me, considering flow of finances, with every new day we are closer and closer to Slavic Alliance

I agree, not alliance. Cooperation, it would be the best. There is one problem with Russian attitude towards some slavic countries ;)
NieMota - | 30  
12 Apr 2008 /  #23
But like i said I cant travel and posting it is too costly plus customs. I am not a good seller anyway.

If you had a trusty friend in US then you could establish two way trading channel.
So you could source some US parts needed for tuninig to PL and and could resell surplus to niche customers (they could book these parts). At the opposite direction you could send parcels of tuned chinese goods for similar kind of customers in the US.

You could buying parts at wholesale prices level and resell them at decent higher level booked by your customers.
The main obstacle is to establish solid (trusty) 2 way trading chanel to operate at some niche markets at US and PL.
Your customers could be your insurance for exchange rate changes as you would be able to change prices accordingly to current exchange rate level.
As a result you would be a winner at any change plus your money
could work for you in more efficient way.
OP v99 4 | 17  
12 Apr 2008 /  #24
NieMota how do you deal with customs? The customs fees negate any profit normally.

And how do you buy wholesale? I thought that was for businesses and buying bulk.

Like you said I have no idea how to establish a channel or navigate the Polish laws.

Everything in my life has collapsed the last years and now my money too....its insane. I know it is good for Poles and shopping but this rate is killing me as my only income is a small payment each month from the US and now its worth squat here....not even enough to live anymore. Hell it not enough to live in the US either and I have nothing back there anyway. My health has gone to ****. My fiancee left so that screws up my status here. Everything culminated in the perfect storm for crushing me.

I know there are options to earn here illegally but also my health makes many things hard.
Wahldo  
12 Apr 2008 /  #25
Greg, you breed kuvasz ?
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163  
13 Apr 2008 /  #26
No... Podhalany...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Tatra_Sheepdog
Crow 139 | 8,291  
13 Apr 2008 /  #27
I agree, not alliance. Cooperation, it would be the best.

call it as you wish- alliance, union or just good relationship based on treties between states (Slavic and of those who are historicaly close to Slavs). Only important thing is that, that close cooperation result in batter living standard in `united` countries, preservation of Slavic culture and languages, salvation of Slavs from assimilation by hostile non-Slavs, strengtening Christin values which we all share, provide real security to people in case with possible terrorist and criminal actions- establish Slavic Security Forces which would react if necesery (natural chatastrophy, attack from outside of `union`, eventual internal crisis, to prevent conflicts), etc, etc.

There is one problem with Russian attitude towards some slavic countries ;)

mark my words. Russia daffinitely evolve in possitive dirrection (no matter all confusing signals) but, fact is that NATO complicate things trying to encircle Russia. I believe, Russians won`t be problem, they would cooperate in establishment of new relations between Slavs.

We need to learn to work togather, to continue from the point where era of slavery interrupted our development (in any sense). We- Slavs, must be free.
peterweg 37 | 2,321  
14 Apr 2008 /  #28
Hello, how you doing, 1939?
TheKruk 3 | 308  
14 Apr 2008 /  #29
V99
Can you do any English conversation lessons from your home?
Neil63 6 | 57  
15 Apr 2008 /  #30
I see the rise of the zloty more as a result of the major countries around the world having problems rather than a strong Polish emergence. I believe that a strong zloty now is too premature for a country that was starting build for the future and if it is maintained investment could go elsewhere. Exchange rates are fickle things, in 1993 £1 = 2.39PLN, in 2003 £1 = 6.80PLN - your guess is as good as mine about the future.

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