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If Poland is attacked by Russia will N.A.T.O help defend Poland or not? [171]
When discussing Russian military a reality check is needed, they're aiming to have 3000 tanks left in line so we can guess thats about the number they have active anyway, in case of war with Poland they still have to have tanks on the border with China, in Georgia, Chechenya and some reserves, so how many tanks would be used? 1500-2000? Poland would face 2-1 odds at most.
The first principle of the military analysis is to figure out how the enemy can hurt you worst with his known capabilities and then to plan to stop him, not hope he won't try it.
You cannot avoid running risks, sometimes, where military operations are concerned, but prudence is a powerful military virtue. And prudence suggests that you err on the side of pessimism, especially BEFORE the shooting starts.