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Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49%


milky 13 | 1,657
22 Nov 2011 #211
hey BRS, if you look back on the threads you will see that my argument is that the prices are driven by Poles working in the West. The prices are not based on Poland, it looks like the Poles will remain in the west so .........who knows
hythorn 3 | 580
22 Nov 2011 #212
--retail in this country is an enigma. I lived here when burger king and dominoes were here the first time--they were busy but for some reason they shut down. (we don't eat this food, but an observation as a passerby) It blows my mind how some things will survive and some die-

Burger King pulled off the market strategically
they came back of course

McDonalds is so unbelievably successful that McDonalds are funding restaurants themselves instead of involving franchisees
any restaurants that are not making the grade are taken over by McD directly
BRS 2 | 48
22 Nov 2011 #213
Think about it, get the house in Moldova you dream about now...don't wait for the price increase in Moldova and have the same regrets you have in Poland now

Prices are going down, but get realistic, we're not going back to Poland 2000

Back in 2000 we had our pick hiring university graduates, now we have trouble finding suitable candidates because we are competing with so many other companies and graduates salary demands are high.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
22 Nov 2011 #214
Wedle

"If I was a gambling man I would say after the Euphoria of Euro 2012, Q3 2012 the pendulum will swing over to the camp of Milky."

"I personally will buy more real estate if the prices drop, medium to long term Poland is well positioned and has good Fundamentals."

Nothing like being sure is there?
Wedle 16 | 496
22 Nov 2011 #215
Nothing like being sure is there?

I am completely sure and stick by my words, I am 100% convinced real estate prices will slow down next year ( not crash to 2000 levels). Furthermore I am a buyer at certain price levels,because I believe Poland has good long term fundamentals. I m not a flip freak, I am a buy and hold.
pip 10 | 1,661
22 Nov 2011 #216
I just heard that McDonald's sales have gone down in Poland. I wish somebody would wipe them off the earth- they are beyond disgusting in every aspect of their business.

"I personally will buy more real estate if the prices drop, medium to long term Poland is well positioned and has good Fundamentals."

this is an interesting link about Danish mortgages: arpllp.com/core_files/The_Absolute_Return_Letter_0911(1).pdf

I am completely sure and stick by my words, I am 100% convinced real estate prices will slow down next year ( not crash to 2000 levels). Furthermore I am a buyer at certain price levels,because I believe Poland has good long term fundamentals. I m not a flip freak, I am a buy and hold.

I am in agreement with this- however, many on this board are claiming that there is a property bubble- this is simple not true. The prices will slow down and level off now that the market is saturated and people are becoming more picky as well as it being more difficult to obtain a mortgage.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
22 Nov 2011 #217
I am completely sure and stick by my words, I am 100% convinced real estate prices will slow down next year ( not crash to 2000 levels).

This would make you totaly at odds with milky's prediction and yet you state that things will "swing his way"?
Wedle 16 | 496
22 Nov 2011 #218
Avalon, the pendulum is a weight suspended from a pivot so that it can swing freely, I have quoted Q3 2012, as market change, in my opinion the pendulum will shift in Milky's direction although I do believe he is being overly pessimistic with his m2 price's. I am a believer of free market economics, nature has her way of eradicating the weak,quantitative easing is only prolonging the inevitable. I do not believe Poland can be an oasis while all around her are falling, the global economy is too interlinked. As someone previously pointed out, Poland is a better place than many others places to be, right now.
OP peterweg 37 | 2,321
22 Nov 2011 #219
Burger King were converted to KFC, by this company.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AmRest

They are re-opening them again I believe. I only know this becuase I meet the son of the founder in San Diego.

Burger King pulled off the market strategically
they came back of course

This company owns the rights to KFC, Pizza hut and Burger King so its not Burger King as such

I just heard that McDonald's sales have gone down in Poland. I wish somebody would wipe them off the earth- they are beyond disgusting in every aspect of their business.

I personally believe they have little chance in Poland, I took the family there and they thought it was vile.
pip 10 | 1,661
22 Nov 2011 #220
I personally believe they have little chance in Poland, I took the family there and they thought it was vile.

are you kidding? they are everywhere. there is one in zakopane and even one in Puck. They know what they are doing. They set up in working class neighbourhoods and high tourist areas to get to the masses.
OP peterweg 37 | 2,321
22 Nov 2011 #221
They know what they are doing.

They are expensive compared to a polish restaurant.

There is only 240 compared to 1200 in the UK
milky 13 | 1,657
22 Nov 2011 #222
HEY !
Did i ever say that??? 2000 levels?? NO I didn't ....I said back to 2005 prices or mid 2006,
pip 10 | 1,661
22 Nov 2011 #223
They are expensive compared to a polish restaurant.

There is only 240 compared to 1200 in the UK

not any more- what Polish restaurant is cheaper than that?

Poland also doesn't have the road infrastructure yet...they will and be sure there will be a mcdonalds along the highways and in every small town.

don't kid yourself, mcdonalds will always be successful here for the fact that eastern europeans think that they are getting their piece of america with every genetically altered bite of meat they take.

please don't stray from the original topic. thank you.
milky 13 | 1,657
22 Nov 2011 #224
ok man,no prob.
OP peterweg 37 | 2,321
23 Nov 2011 #225
Rise in unsold Polish apartments could lead to price fall

23rd November 2011

There are now more than 60,000 new apartments waiting for buyers across Poland, and with demand still dropping analysts expect that finding buyers for all the currently available units could take up to 20 months, reported Rzeczpospolita.

Real estate experts have advised would-be buyers to use this market position to their advantage and negotiate a lower price with developers.

"We're seeing a steady growth in numbers of apartments being offered by developers, but demand is just not keeping up," said Katarzyna Kuniewicz, associate director at Reas, a residential market consultancy.

theKNOWLEDGE
23 Nov 2011 #226
Rise in unsold Polish apartments could lead to price fall

Bit of a misleading headline - it should say "new unsold" rather than just "unsold".

People have woken up and realised that new-build apartments are often built on the cheap and are simply not worth the money being asked.
BRS 2 | 48
23 Nov 2011 #227
People have woken up and realised that new-build apartments are often built on the cheap and are simply not worth the money being asked

In the market to sell a used apartment maybe ;-)

It is true that new apartments are being constructed more cheaply in order to meet the demand that couldn't afford the price levels; however the idea that the supply is growing because of this simply cannot be true. Supply is growing because of the reasons mentioned on the last 8 pages.
Wroclaw 44 | 5,387
23 Nov 2011 #228
new-build apartments are often built on the cheap and are simply not worth the money being asked.

i've said that, or something similar, plenty times on here
Wedle 16 | 496
23 Nov 2011 #229
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- It wouldn’t make sense for Poland to fix the zloty to the euro now in the European Union’s Exchange Rate Mechanism as such a move would be “a recipe for turmoil” and speculation on the currency market, central bank Governor Marek Belka said in an interview published today on the central bank’s Obserwatorfinansowy.pl website.

Poland can’t achieve its political goals in the European Union without joining the euro area, Belka said, according to the website. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Donald Tusk would have been criticized has he announced a deadline for adoption at a moment when currency area’s rupture can’t be ruled out, Obserwatorfinansowy.pl quoted Belka as saying.
pip 10 | 1,661
23 Nov 2011 #230
i hope Poland doesn't take the Euro.
scottie1113 7 | 898
23 Nov 2011 #231
I think it's going to be a while before Poland is ready to accept the Euro, and I really hope it doesn't happen.
milky 13 | 1,657
23 Nov 2011 #232
've said that, or something similar, ple

maybe 5% of the reason..

The results of the fifteenth wave of the survey of high-level professionals from the management and operating divisions of 200 largest Polish construction companies, which was conducted for the purposes of report "Construction sector in Poland H2 2011 - Comparative regional analysis and development forecasts for 2011-2014", reveal a strong downturn in construction industry confidence. PMR Polish Construction Confidence Indicator had a value of -2.4 pts in September 2011, presenting a much less optimistic outlook of construction companies on the future market situation after two years of relative stabilisation.

oxstones.com/price-wars-to-continue-for-at-least-two-years-on-the-polish-construction-market
scottie1113 7 | 898
23 Nov 2011 #233
OK, and you still think prices are going to come down dramatically?
PeterWeg03
24 Nov 2011 #234
Bit of a misleading headline - it should say "new unsold" rather than just "unsold".

Utterly irrelevant, they are comparing like with like.
BRS 2 | 48
24 Nov 2011 #235
Despite this construction news, it is still impossible to even build a piece of $%*& apartment and sell it at a profit if there was a severe fall in prices.

Poland had a construction boom with easy profits, that why Italian companies are building the metro, Greek companies are building roads, Chinese companies tried to build roads and German and Austrian companies are so large - this still is considered the land of construction opportunity. Severe competition puts the poorly managed construction companies into bankruptcy and cleans up the market. I don't expect we will see any of the big names thinking its strategically a good idea to leave Poland.

much less optimistic outlook of construction companies

For the life of me I can't get the edit to work, my message should start:

Despite this construction news, it is.....
Avalon 4 | 1,068
24 Nov 2011 #236
presenting a much less optimistic outlook of construction companies on the future market situation after two years of relative stabilisation.

You have known this for the past 2 years. If the banks are not lending because of the Euro crises, building will slow down. The money to buy the projects is not there, This will not mean much of a decrease in prices because there is a "finite" limit on being profitable and going broke. There is no point in companies investing millions/billions on projects they cannot sell. Speculative builing will stop and only projects which are subscribed by at least 50% "off plan" will be built with gurantees/insurance for the finished project.

Because of the same mortgage lending problems in the UK, housing construction has reached its lowest level in 50 years, the demand is there but the finances are not.

This week the banks have again stopped lending to each other, reminicent of the 2008 crash. Even the govenor of the Bank of England has stated this week that he "does not know what is happening tomorrow", so much for the experts. The world has never seen a problem like the "Euro" and its impossible to know the full repercussions of a possible collapse.

Companies, banks, hedge funds are sat on billions in cash and will not invest until this mess sorts itself out.
All anybody can do is sit back and wait. If you like gambling you can try the stock market or currencies, but, you are up against the rich with insider information.
OP peterweg 37 | 2,321
24 Nov 2011 #237
Companies, banks, hedge funds are sat on billions in cash

Banks and hedge funds don't have any cash.

Banks in particular do not lend money they have, you give them a property and they manufacture it out of thin air using the property as proof that the money exists. Any cash the may have is lent out at 10-50 times multiple as a loan on an asset.

So banks may have trillions of euro's but its mostly owed to them.
rt3d 10 | 46
24 Nov 2011 #238
There will be defiantly, a slow growth in 2012 and the coming years..

marketwatch.com/story/very-slow-growth-2012-then-long-bear-to-2020-2011-11-22
PeterWeg03
25 Nov 2011 #239
wbj.pl/article-57035-poles-buying-cheaper-apartments-in-germany.html?t yp=pam

Explain that. Bubble?
Wedle 16 | 496
25 Nov 2011 #240
Explain that. Bubble?

Land is cheaper in Eastern germany than Poland, not only building land, also agricultural land.


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