Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

And on Christmas Day, 2012, you stated " I know they fell 1.5% in October which is a massive drop for a place which has seen little or no falls since 2005."

No further comment is needed.

My 5 pence worth.

The so called luxury flats which are often the apartments which foreign investors buy in too are completely overpriced, they distort the market median price since they are over inflated by owners and lenders.

rank and file localised small developments in the towns (not cities) have been selling for roughly the same price since 2008.
The market is deflating slowly, the IMF with its huge credit line and the huge sums from the EU budget 2014 to 2020 will all help the Polish economy to remain stable and lets the residential market regulate itself. Like a whoopee cushion squeezed slowly.

Property prices will continue to fall until 2015 a year after the first EU monies really kick in, then they will slowly begin to pick up and rise, accelerating when the Polish government announces officially it will take up the Euro in 2017. From 2017 prices will rise again until 2020....after that humanity is wiped out by a virus...who knows...

wbj.pl/realestatenews-62484-apartments-sell-well-in-q1-2013.html

interesting, no?

Poland: Discrimination against foreigners in the housing market (Unofficial translation)
22/03/2013 - Poland - Polish
Posted by : Country Coordinator Poland
Poles do not want to rent flats to foreigners - according to the study conducted by the Institute of Public Affairs. The findings show that people who have flats to rent are three times more likely to refuse to rent them to foreigners than to Poles.

Interviewers - both Poles and foreigners - called about renting more than 400 (the same) flats in Pruszków, Warsaw, Lublin and Białystok. The results of the test were surprising. Foreigners were informed that the offer was out of date in 113 conversations, while Poles - only in 43.

Has anyone experienced this?

I had contact with a Polish real estate agent today and the word from her was..................... nothing happening. No phones ringing, no emails, no sales, maybe the odd rental here and there.

doom and gloom

Residential market in Poland - Q1 2013

media.reas.pl/en/pr/239860/residential-market-in-poland-q1-2013?rss=true

Signs of stability?

"It seems that the market is now at a turning point. Although downward trend in prices eased, the size of available offer is still substantial, and numerous firms presently finishing their projects record low sales. Unless they find an alternative solution to their liquidity problem, these developers might be forced to reduce prices." - adds Kazimierz Kirejczyk.

It has a time to go yet.

how many times do I have to write that REAS is considered a joke in the real estate market. They are nothing. Don't take their word for it because they are all hacks.

Are we supposed to listen to you instead?

REAS are internationally recognised as credible source. FT and international accountancy firms use them.

You, however are an internal designer who bought at the peak of the market and have a vested interest in talking up the burst bubble of Poland property.

didn't buy in the peak of the market. didn't buy in swiss francs. we are good. I have nothing to lose or gain. I have inside information because my husband is in real estate and knows all of the recognized companies that deal with properties in Poland. REAS is a second tier company. The information they have collected for their reports has been gathered by the big name firms in Warsaw, and ironically by my husband.

It is difficult to prove a point if you don't have insider information or knowing about the goings on in the sector.

Nobody has ever denied that the prices are coming down. But they were over inflated in the first place. So it only makes sense that they will come down now that there is more selection. Why is this so difficult to understand.

I don't understand the logic. I own a house as well as other properties, wise business decisions. my husband is in the real estate sector but I don't have a fecking clue what is going on in the market?

yet people here that have no connection to real estate, perhaps they teach english, should be taken seriously because they post links?

perhaps you can give medical advice too.

the prevailing view is prices will continue on the downward spiral until 2015 at least.
ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/en/reports/actual/Ober-Haus%20Polish%20Cities%20Apartment%20Price%20Index%20March%202013.pdf

One of the people who makes the most noise in this thread is such an expert when it comes to property that he thinks it's a good idea to buy property and put it in the name of somebody else!


Hopefully until at least then.

well it works for Adam Gessler.

er...people do this all the time. Whether it is a good idea or not depends how much control you have over the other person with their name on the deeds.

It is usual when people launder money or wish to avoid certain taxes..... or so I am told.

Or want to buy farm+land at half price without a permit. The sellers were within days of losing it due to debts.

Indeed. Business = risk.

ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/en/reports/actual/Ober-Haus%20Polish%20Cities%20Apartment%20Price%20Index%20April%202013.pdf
Polish apartment prices continue to fall

yes and? If we were really in a bubble it would have burst by now, hence the term bubble. the prices are steadily decreasing. big deal. nothing new.

Fine by me, I'll have a nice deposit saved up by then to buy a nice house. I've been looking at property prices and they've barely budged from what I paid for mine - maybe a small decrease, but nothing worth writing home about. If this means the stability of the banking system, I don't mind.

House prices in Warsaw are down by 13.1%
In Cracow, house prices are down by 17.9%
In Poznan, house prices have fallen by 28%
In Gdańsk, house prices plunged by 27%
In Lodz, property prices plummeted by 35.7%
28% in not that small


not if it was largely based on remittance, and Poles never returned home besides all the neo-liberal propaganda.
even with a remittance driven bubble
In Lodz, property prices plummeted by 35.7%
is gigantic drop

It isn't a gigantic drop if they were hugely over priced to begin with. Why are you so thick?

so in relation to average apartment of 250000 zl... its about 90000 zl reduction ,,about 4 years earning for the average person. 1 year for your cleaner off course.


Why are you so great?

Source?

born that way.

It is not my made up statistic -it is fact.

I must say I find it quit "polish" that you still are stating this. The prices of polish reel estate was way to high in 2006-2009. Much higher then the fundamental economic variables would indicate. The foregin (idiot) investments + a major change in the expectation in the polish market have to take most of the explanation of this! Therby buble!

The reason why the prices has been faling so slow as they actually have is in my opinion a mix of Polish stubbornness, a banksector with litle experience and that the growth in the GDP as keept a smal hope in many investors that Poland is the one market that dos not follow the same rules that anyone else (Prices get decided by the suply and demand)

DIfferent statics shows a pricefall around 20 - 35%. For all of this there is 2 missing things: Inflation (very high in poland compared to other EU countris), High capital cost ("polish investors" have had a significant higher capital cost then investors in other countrises eg in the EU. This "cost" add to the lost money from the fall in prices)

The last thing that is important for international investors is the drop in the zloty compared to the Euro. If you add a 20-25% drop in the currency on top of the 3 points mentioned above you will see that the investor has lost way over 50% from his investment (foreing investor back in 2008).

So please stop this crap that this is a "natural" pricemovment. It has been a buble and hopefully we are close to the end of it and we may have a steady market for som years infront of us!

There is no real liquidity in Polish real estate, this is the one indicator of ' bubble' I am also of the opinion it was a bubble in certain sectors of the Polish residential market. Warsaw is adjusting accordingly, Krakow seems to be in a world of its own. The only liquidity in the market is for those who accept the conditions and can afford to sell.

Hehe ye I agree. I was actually hoping that the suplyside had potential of slowing down for a while... but after checking around the last 2-3 weeks there seems to be no indication of this. From a "normal" point of view that have to mean one out of two things. Either the margin in this market is so much higher then in the rest of Europe so they can continue this madness, or 2) we will see more smal and medium companies file for bankrupcy the next 1-3 years!


This is a very good point. Ofcourse if you ought a apartment for 350.000 and you dont have to sell it today, the price is still 350.000. No matter that the actual price you would get is no more then 280 max 300! I think we are talking about the polish stobbernness here (",

I dont have any numbers of total units that "changed hands" per day in 2008, but my guess is that its a bit higher then we are seeing today!

BTW: I am in at 7.500 per m2 and at least I hope I am still in the green... but I will not be very surprised if it take as much as 24 months untill we can start to talk about a "bottom"

Much higher in price than many others in the area, this new development in Wrocław at 8500/zl m2 (although it has a pool etc)

zielonaetiuda.pl/nowe-apartamenty-wroclaw

I gasped when I saw the price.

Boom!
I like your post because you have brought up the importance of currency value, the lack of experience in the Polish bank sector and the rate of inflation.

This is really one of the better posts I've read in this thread.
Although I don't need to buy (or sell) the property market does interest me as it's an indicator of sorts about "how things are going in Poland." One poster brought up stability being gained through IMF loans. I am a bit sceptical of that because of the horrible results that have befallen the people of nations whose governments have taken on IMF loans buuuuuuut, I am interested in what some other members of this discussion think about that. Will these loans aid in stabilizing the market(s) here?

pip, all this talk of "trust me, my husband told me so," doesn't really give your arguments any leverage. You/he may be right on some things or even everything but if the only rationale you have is "I'm married to an expert and he says..." then it's not really as informative as Norwegian's style (and he's done it in what I presume to be a foreign language for him).

I have never ever said "trust me, my husband said so". I am not such a puppet. What I am trying to do is present an experienced side to this post as opposed to those who copy and paste mindless dribble and claim it to be fact- but yet have never owned property here. I also have experience buying residential properties in Poland more than once.

Here is a fact. Some of the articles that people have posted on here have in part been sourced by my husband.

He knows the real estate market. He is in commercial but they are indeed all connected. There is a group of agents that all share their information of the existing market in Poland. It is a "secret group" for a lack of a better term. They share all stats and prices, etc.. of the real estate markets in Poland. Because he is an agent and belongs to this group- he is privy to this information.

I don't really expect that people take my word as expert advice, however, being married to somebody in the real estate profession in Poland gives me access to information that perhaps an English teacher living in a secondary market in Poland wouldn't have.

And he can state all the supposed anti bubble theory that he wants but the fact is that a bubble pops. It doesn't deflate in residential real estate terms. And the bubble is not popping.