Poland's apartment prices continue to fall

That has nothing to do with Poland's economical miracle, more to do with exodus of Polish workers to Western and Northern Europe since 2004.


I would like to ask you a vey simple question, based on the the current real estate prices in PL, which Polish real estate buyers are currently under water, those who bought in 2004-5-6-7-8-9-10-11 or 12. The answer is already within this thread.

If you had read this thread you would have known that these questions have already been asked and answered several times, complete with precise figures and instructions on how to calculate the effect of compound interest. Avalon and pip keep asking the same question and refuses to accept the answer because it doesn't fit their agenda.

I don't care to answer them again, it not going to stop prices falling and not going to change anyones mind about bubbles etc.

Now, read the thread and make a more informed comment.


Simple, wait until the growth in the economy is increasing again, maybe a year or two. Again, its already explained in this thread, Polands economy will grow over the decade and with it wages and house prices.

What I'm hearing re unemployment: gloomy or even bleak for quite a few, but not so much for those with specialist skills (eg IT management, and of course some other industries I could list), increasingly companies are putting newcomers on short contracts (especially banks), skilled grads are finding work in retail (stock replenishing, KFC, etc), younger ones continue to look abroad to Germany, Eire and the UK.

That's what I find when I chat to people. It's not a scientific sample.

On the flip side, seems plenty of signs of wealth here in Wroc - flash new cars, Xmas malls pretty busy, although perhaps not quite as busy as I recall in 2010.

Season's greetings to all.

Tripled in Prices.


Can't see how you figured this.


sounds good


between 10- 40%


People can easily escape to the West and earn 6 time more and cover their payments with ease, unfortunately people in Ireland have no escape in this matter. Howevwr; Thenews.pl :: News from Poland

LISTEN LIVE
Szukaj w serwisie
Home
News
Radio
Most Popular
About Us
Contact Us
Repossessed real estate soars in Poland
15.10.2012 11:20
Over the last two years, the number of properties repossessed by bailiffs in Poland has doubled.

Photo:
Photo: Glowimages

The rise in repossessions echoes an increase in unpaid debts, according to BIG InfoMonitor, a Polish firm specialising in the collection of data about debts.

The firm notes that at the end of September this year, the amount of unpaid debts in Poland had risen to 37 billion zloty (9 billion euro), marking a 3 percent rise in a three month period. According to Big Info Monitor, some 2,2 million Poles are affected.

thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/115303,Repossessed-real-estate-soars-in-Poland


yes


Yes, go buy now before prices go up even further. Quick run to the bank.


Exactly. The miracle lol.


I think he's gone running to the bank in his PJ's.

The answer to the first question, you do know. 243%

The answer to the 2nd question is whatever Milky wants to make up.

The relevance of the 3rd question is with reference to your statement :-


As I said, I want to learn from you so please explain how a person who bought a house/apartment for (say) 200,000 zloty in 2004 and still resides at the same address is facing a cataclysm of the first order? Are you saying that their house/apartment is now worth 80,000 zloty?


"Regarding the repossession of property, a syndrome has been noted concerning relatively small loans from so-called parabanks - firms offering the services of banks without a full banking license."

Milky, you turn being evasive into an art form. Not once in the artical you give a link to, does it mention the word "mortgage". I asked a simple question, "what is the percentage of mortgage repossessions since 2008 ?" All you and Peterweg manage to do is change the subject to rental incomes and unemployment. You both know all there is to know about property in Poland, enlighten me, or, do the usual and reopen this thread in a months time stating the same crap.

Yes, which means a gigantic bubble.


?????
ober-haus.pl/files/pl/files/en/reports/actual/Ober-Haus%20Polish%20Cities%20Apartment%20Price%20Index%20October%202012.pdf

In Wroclaw, house prices are down by 31.91% (31.81% in real terms).
In Poznan, property prices plummeted by 44.08% (44.18% in real
globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Price-History


lol,, ahahahahahaha what do you think they bought them with ?Holy Communion money? Pulling at straws man.

Not at all. 95% of house holders do not have a mortgage and either own out right or live in cheap accommodation. The mortgage holders are - most probably - recent buyers who are stuffed. Foreign currency mortgage holders are possible even worse off.


No necessary so, it depends on inflation (which has been very high) and the prices to start with (which were low). Add to the mix the small numbers of mortgage holders who are exposed does not guarantee a big crash or indicate a bubble.

What is far more important is afford-ability (bad, prices are too high), the unemployment/confidence situation (going bad) in Poland and credit availability (very bad, Western banks are removing capital; to comply with stricter banking laws)


We have already gone over this. Poles have very high saving as a percent of income.


But how important will borrowed money be to the future expected rise in prices? I'd say very little as banks are caping lending at low levels compared to prices. The sort of people who could afford big mortgages in the past are probably over strained - the people with the potential borrowing ability to cause future price rises.

Yep and you only have to earn a pre-tax income of more than 7,000 zlotys a month to be middle class. Where did KPMG conjure that one up. " Hey Bob what is middle class in Poland, I don't know Ted. How much do our entry level trainee auditors make a month? 7,000 zlotys a month pre tax - ok lets make em all middle class then. What a load of bullox.

Here is the source - I ****** myself laughing at the KPMG report.

The hotel will be aimed at a mix of travellers and wealthy Poles - a market that is growing despite the economic slowdown, according to a new report on Poland's luxury market from KPMG, the consultancy.

The consultancy sets a pretty low bar for what is considered wealthy or aspirational - a pre-tax income of more than 7,000 zlotys a month ($2,187), a level that encompasses about three quarters of a million people and one that Andrzej Marczak, one of the report's authors, quips, is "Luxury made in Poland".

That would give this new upper middle class a combined income of about 130bn zlotys, with the expectation that by 2015 it will hit 160bn zlotys.

wow, that report is comical.

Don't try to imply that report has anything to do with the level of Poles savings.

You are posting something completely off topic.

Have we not shown links in the past, that show Poles to have the lowest disposable income in the EU. The most common wage in Poland Net is a about a hundred Euro a week. A person working in MacDonald in Ireland would have bigger disposable income than the entire wage a Polish teacher. The poorest 25 % in Berlin are richer than the top 25% in Warsaw etc etc

Have you got a link to show that 95% of Poles don't have a mortgage? What percentage of Poles between 25-55yrs of age have mortgage? Also mortgages are relatively new to Poland

Most homeowners in Britain will not have a mortgage on their property within three years, a ground-breaking report revealed yesterday.

With few young couples able to take mortgages out, the profile of homeowners has changed dramatically.

By 2015, more than 50 per cent of homeowners will be older 'mortgage-free' households with a home that they own outright.

Many of those will be people who took a mortgage out in Britian the 1960s, 70s and 80s and are now reaping huge financial rewards.

70% percent of British are mortgage free..

I think you will find it has everything to do with earnings/savings/credit and spending power otherwise how could Polish people afford such luxury goods and homes.

No its a silly report that even the the FT too the Micky out off.

Doesn't detract from the fact that a very large part of the Polish households have large debt free assets to their name and an average savings of around 120K zloty


Already posted in this thread, and you know it.

ok, only asking,,are you sure its this thread?

Hence my comment


Also Pips comment



I believe your info about 95% of Poles not having a mortgage/debt may be misleading.

So, I read more and thought that I'd paste the sections that you decided to leave out to:

By contrast, younger couples are finding it increasingly difficult to get on the property ladder.
House prices have soared over the past three decades, and the average house price is now around £160,000 - and far higher in London and parts of the South.

Young people, who typically buy with a large mortgage, are forced to rent or to live with their parents.Buyers are being stymied by lack of mortgage finance and large deposits so they are struggling to access the housing ladder.

homeowners with no mortgage currently own properties worth around £2,000billion, around 40 per cent of the total value of the housing market.
Latest figures, from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, show how the number of mortgages being handed out has collapsed from the much higher levels before the credit crunch.

So basically, in the UK the numbers of homeowners with a mortgage are falling because the price of houses are too expensive and the banks aren't lending.

People are being forced to rent or stay with their parents. It must be nice for all those 'wealthy' people in the UK, unable to get on the property ladder...

If house prices are falling in Poland surely that's a good thing for young couples:D

Depends on whether those couples took out a mortgage 2 years ago or if they have yet to do so.

Of course this is desirable, but, Milky thinks that they should sell for cost price or less.

No, Mid 2006 prices. I said. silly boy. Are you still a developer?

know what you're saying. But by the end of the mortgage it is highly unlikey that they will be in a negative equity situation. (Even if prices do drop short-term, they will in all probability recover in 2 decades time)

Very bad English, but I'm tired...
I wonder if there is anyone on the forum who bought a property in say 2004-6 who can honestly say that thereir property is now worth less than when they bought it?

Other than Poznan? I think a lot of cities had only single or low double-figure depreciation. Certainly nowhere near enough to devlaue properties below that 243% rise...

Spoke to two fairly young women at a mall yesterday who were trying to get me to apply for a sales promo as I walked past them. Got chatting very easily as both conversed in rapid, fluent English with me. They said and I quote "Hard to get a good job here, it's a network, you have to know someone....The rent is very expensive, half my monthly wages."

One of them had lived in Hampton Wick (a good part of outer London) for 5 years with her English boyfriend, and the other who was the more fluent and barely even had an accent said she had tried to work in Oxford City (as she called it) and to my surprise it had only been a cleaning job there. It fell through for some reason.

Both of these women were in their 20s and seemed super bright and the one that had worked in the HW coffee shop was a postgrad. Yet there they are giving out leaflets in a mall. Of course, the bar in Poland may be higher, or they may have adverse job references - but what they told me was not the first time I've heard that here in Wrocław. Yet to look at the top of the range motors on the roads here and the packed trams, it all looks very buoyant.

(The HW woman said she intends to return to the UK as she "can't make much money" in Poland, btw.)

Good question


This is the part of Poland I'm having trouble reconciling as well. On the surface things look rosy but talking to more and more under-thirties people here and I wonder if in fact there isn't a bubble but something more...

could someone repost this, please?

7:00AM BST 27 Sep 2012

Official figures show the number of Poles living here rose by 45,000 last year, the first annual rise since the financial crash.

The increase comes despite their homeland's economy growing strongly, while Britain languishes in a double-dip recession with more than 2.5million people out of work.

Experts believe the new wave of immigration is explained by far lower salaries in Eastern Europe.

It will cast renewed doubt on the Home Office's attempts to reduce net migration - the number of people who settle in Britain every year minus those who move abroad - to the "tens of thousands" from the current rate of more than 200,000 annually.

The chart will tell you who should be and who shouldn't be in negative equity.

If Poles are going back to the UK, it is only because there are no jobs for them here in Poland. Anyone who suggests the economy in Poland circa December 2012 is growing strongly is not reading from the correct hymn sheet. Figures will have to be released in 2013 showing the real state of the economy, IT, Banking supermarkets and Telecoms have all been releasing people not hiring in the last quarter of 2012.

In my opinion there will also be a price war between the main supermarkets in 2013. The Polish market will react in the same way as the UK in 2009, which will be excellent for the consumer.

Just as a side note: today I took my family for Sunday brunch to the Marriot in Warsaw - it was shocking to me that on the 16th Dec it was only 30% occupancy. People no longer have money here - they have been living the dream.

Someone I know passed me the prices of property in Krzyki, Wrocław at present: from 5700 to 7500 a square metre

If they're the reduced prices, I wouldn't have wanted to see the full ones!

Well here is one below those prices new build as well.

[quote=warszawski]Well here is one below those prices new build as well/quote]
The ones they checked are apparently a good part, along by Ul Sowia etc, the good part of Krzyki.

The end near Bardzka in your link is not the same i'm afraid.

Until recently Poland had revelled in its status as the EU's exceptional economy, a place which grew while other countries stalled or fell into recession. But the ongoing slowdown shows there are limits to how far Poland can buck the wider trend.

FDI in Poland for 2012 will amount to about €5bn - that compares to €13.6bn last year and €10.5bn in 2010. Poland is no longer seen as the attractive investment.

Poland's economic slowdown is beginning to bite. More and more companies are announcing layoffs, pushing unemployment to its highest level in six years.

Poland's economy slowed by more than expected in the third quarter, growing by an annual 1.4 per cent compared to 2.3 per cent in the second quarter, as the combined impact of the slowdown in the eurozone and a slump in domestic demand and investment continued to affect the country. The big question now is what the slightly worse-than-expected numbers will mean for the National Bank of Poland's policy for 2013..

Sent to Reddit
A recent report states that Krakow is the most difficult Polish city in which to buy a flat.

The study, conducted by Domy.pl and Open Finance claims that citizens must work approximately 11.5 years in order to come up with enough cash to pay for a three room property (50-square meters).

Despite prices being higher in Warsaw, Dziennik Gazeta Prawna writes that the average monthly salaries (Krakow - PLN 2,514, Warsaw PLN 3,289) mean that that residents of Krakow must wait for longer.