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Merkel's stepping down influence on Poland


Lyzko 32 | 7,931
31 Oct 2018 #1
Just curious as to people's reactions to Angela Merkel's decision to step down from her party and what might be the effect on Poland, much less the rest of Europe, including, of course, Germany.
mafketis 29 | 10,330
31 Oct 2018 #2
As mentioned previously the Chancellor doesn't normally do that much as Germany is set up for rule by courts and functionaries. Merkel was probably more sympathetic to Poland than her immediate predecessors (or likely successors) but again... there won't be much practical difference.

And again, no one can be the effective (executive) head of state for over ten years (give or take two years) without losing contact with the daily reality of the country so it's good she's moving aside. Being the CEO of a country for over 10 years should be a mark of shame and a confession to banana republic tendencies.....
Tacitus 2 | 1,462
31 Oct 2018 #3
Or testimony to a pretty impressive politician.
mafketis 29 | 10,330
31 Oct 2018 #4
An impressive politician knows to groom successors and not search out a leader for life gig, but your devotion to Vova Putain is very cute, you're like a little puppy dog wagging his fuzzy little tale.
Tacitus 2 | 1,462
31 Oct 2018 #5
Not exactly her fault when most of her possible successors commit political suicide one way or another.

Frankly I'd be more concerned about Poland than Germany. The fact that the most powerful person holds no elected office and made the PM and President his puppets raise a lot of red flags.
OP Lyzko 32 | 7,931
31 Oct 2018 #6
Many though within the EU, not only in Germany of course, are expressing serious concern about the lack of Merkel's presence (if not leadership) within her party after 2021!
delphiandomine 88 | 18,455
31 Oct 2018 #7
Merkel was probably more sympathetic to Poland than her immediate predecessors (or likely successors) but again... there won't be much practical difference.

It depends though. If Merkel goes and an election follows - if my counting is right, then an Green-SPD-Linke coalition (led by the Greens!) could actually win power. The CSU are facing a real challenge from the Greens, the CDU is also losing ground to the Greens in Western Germany and the FDP would have nothing to gain unless they could rule alone with the Union, and that's not likely based on current opinion polling.

It's also the CDU that have been sympathetic towards Poland in modern history - I'm not convinced that a Green-led government would be the same.
OP Lyzko 32 | 7,931
31 Oct 2018 #8
The far right though must be monitored, above all, contained! This is no laughing matter and they aren't merely a fringy, off-beat group any longer.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,712
1 Nov 2018 #9
if my counting is right, then an Green-SPD-Linke coalition (

There is no majority for that....the Greens are stealing the voters from the former SPD...that means there isn't a growing but an exchange of voters.

Especially as the Green party is no longer considered "left". She could become the next bourgeois party for the better off, educated, towns people. They are mainly liberal but less social oriented. That would make for a big and influential but not a future people's party of the kind of the sinking SPD.

Additionally to that are the Greens a "western" party. Their support in the East is rarely more than in the one-digit scope.
There the AfD is kicking out the Greens and the "Linke"...

That all means it doesn't look good for a future left chancellor coalition.
Rich Mazur 4 | 3,159
1 Nov 2018 #10
The far right though must be monitored, above all, contained!

But the far-left should not be monitored and contained?
Why is that bird with only one wing?
What does "contain" mean? North Korean camps or the Soviet-style gulags?
delphiandomine 88 | 18,455
1 Nov 2018 #11
There is no majority for that....the Greens are stealing the voters from the former SPD...that means there isn't a growing but an exchange of voters.

Aren't they also stealing votes from the Union though? I'm sure I've read an article recently about the last election in Bavaria showing how voters were moving to them from the CSU because they were disgusted with the rhetoric used by the CSU.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,712
1 Nov 2018 #12
Aren't they also stealing votes from the Union though?

Yes, that too...the AfD steals votes from the CDU too...and the "Freien Wähler".

But the Bavaria election has shown that the "middle left" side has not grown, as some commenters at first cheered. Both camps have stayed largely the same...there was no "left revolution", only a much thicker Green and a more starved SPD party.

I found interesting that the Green party grew not only in votes, but also in members. But as studies have shown most of them are rather not left leaning, that will all change the party more to a center oriented one.

What that does do to the "Fundi's" in the party, I don't know...
OP Lyzko 32 | 7,931
1 Nov 2018 #13
Rich,

Merkel's only "crime", according to her opposition, was trying desperately to undo the wrongs committed by her ancestors during the Third Reich, by making modern-day Germany THE bulwark in Europe against right-leaning faschist sorts, bent on threatening to return her country to the days before WWII.

Since 1945, the German Grundgesetz has remained that anchor which continues to keep Germany, now re-united, centered amid the wash of faschist-type regimes spilling across a frustrated post-Wall landscape.

Merkel's FRG she saw and sees as the US of the Continent, as policeman of the EU, intent on not letting things get out of hand.

Can't fault her for trying. It's sure a messy job, but somebody's got to do to:-)
TheOther 6 | 3,692
1 Nov 2018 #14
Especially as the Green party is no longer considered "left".

Well, that's a stretch. Most of their members are still tree hugging do-gooders who are so far removed from reality that it hurts. Remember the dude in Stuttgart (I believe) who wanted to close down the car factories and manufacture bicycles instead? The Greens are still promoting the idea to let even more migrants into the country. I believe they are nuts. Not as much as the Linke, though. Speaking of: has Lafontaine ever paid back the money he owes the German taxpayer for visiting the brothel in Saarbrücken with his buddies? :)
OP Lyzko 32 | 7,931
1 Nov 2018 #15
Do you include in your epithet of "tree-hugging do-gooders" those who wish to protect the environment as compared with tree-bashing, do-baders such as Trump who only just now has decided perhaps to reconsider climate change aka global warming?
Miloslaw 12 | 3,351
1 Nov 2018 #16
I don't fully buy the global warming theory,and that's all it is,but I buy even less into the idea that we can turn it around when China and India continue as they do.
Rich Mazur 4 | 3,159
1 Nov 2018 #17
climate change aka global warming

"Climate change" is a term the global warming liars retreated to after the fakeness of their data and their PC models were exposed. Be using the climate change, the liars were assured of a verbal victory as climate changes ALWAYS and there is not a single person to deny THAT.

Did you know that the climate in Palatine, USA, has changed by .00000000001 degrees since yesterday? Scary, isn't it? We should immediately deport all the illegals from Palatine and restore climate to its normal level.

How did we move from Merkel to global warming?
OP Lyzko 32 | 7,931
1 Nov 2018 #18
Well, Milo, Trump doesn't believe in science either, and so you're in good company.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,712
2 Nov 2018 #19
Most of their members are still tree hugging do-gooders who are so far removed from reality that it hurts.

The "Fundis"....but mark my words...they are a lost cause. Especially the new Green leader Habeck knows that. The Realos are not only winning the power struggle inside the Green party, they are also growing. And they want to rule so badly! They can't do that with these Fundis..
OP Lyzko 32 | 7,931
2 Nov 2018 #20
Don't forget about the "Gruftis" or the "Compostis" either. Nobody should feel left outLOL

The fact is, Merkel is simply the spokesperson for the CSU. Who'll speak on its behalf once she's history in several years or so, is the big, indeed the game changing, question.
OP Lyzko 32 | 7,931
17 May 2021 #21
Merged:

Merkel's Successor and Poland



As Chancellor Merkel's term will officially be up by year's end, the big questíon on everyone's mind on both sides of the Pond is of course who will replace her as well as what will be the impact on Germany's most contentious, not to mention competitive, eastern neighbor. Certain random names such as Armin Laschet, Annegret Krampp-Karrenbauer, Friedrich Merz, and even Ursula von der Leyen immediately come to mind. Merely food for thought.
Alien
18 May 2021 #22
No matter who will be the next. Appeasement and Realpolitik towards PiS (and Poland) wil be continue.
mafketis 29 | 10,330
18 May 2021 #23
even Ursula von der Leyen immediately come to min

That would be..... interesting.... she's just not very competent.... (I can be diplomatic when need be)

You don't follow a fat pope with another fat pope but rather with a skinny pope as they supposedly used to say in the College of Cardinals...

Merkel was a fat pope and would best be followed by a lower profile caretaker (or two).
Tacitus 2 | 1,462
18 May 2021 #24
It is going to be either Armin Laschet, minister president of NRW and leader of the CDU, Annalena Baerbock, leader of the Green party.

Both would be a mixed bag for Poland. Laschet has a stronger connection to Western Europe and is not as tough against Russia as Merkel was. Baerbock wants an even more confrontational policy against Russia than Merkel, however she is also known to be highly critical of PiS anti-LBGTQ dtance and its' attempt to weaken Poland's democracy. She has also stated that she would fight to end the use coal power plants in the EU as soon as possible, which would disadvantage Poland.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,712
18 May 2021 #25
The worst case scenario....a gov with Laschet as Chancellor (which means more of the same of in many years of rulership grown Merkel-swamp as he is a Merkelianer) + Greens/SPD (more leftist style money waste, more ecological costs for the financially weakest + industrial cutting, more unlimited and unwanted immigration)...maybe with an FDP sprinkle on top if they need the numbers.

I think the only ones who will profit from that longterm will be the AfD!
Tacitus 2 | 1,462
18 May 2021 #26
Laschet has been doing a pretty good job of tackling the many problems previous SPD governments failed to adress in my home state NRW, including finally taking the criminal clans on and by doing so he has also weakened the AfD. His Covid management was also competent despite him not bowing to media pressure and him not just shutting down everything.

He has the making of a good chancellor.
gumishu 11 | 5,857
18 May 2021 #28
@Bratwurst Boy

nice to see two Germans quarrell on a Polish forum, heh
Tacitus 2 | 1,462
18 May 2021 #29
Most Germans are Merkelianer one way or another, considering her approval ratings. I trust that Laschet will continue her good work while making the necessary adjustments on certain areas. Personally I would have prefered someone like Söder but if given the choice between Laschet and Baerbock, I'd go for Laschet anytime.
Bratwurst Boy 12 | 11,712
18 May 2021 #30
Do you really think Merkel leaves a "Deutschland in dem wir gut und gerne leben" behind? A Germany well functioning and capable of mastering all the future challenges? With a robust and stable democracy? With a well rounded and highly diverse "vierte Gewalt" aka media?

16 Years of Merkel destroyed the CDU (or otherwise the AfD wouldn't exist)....she let it happen that a swamp of corruption and nepotism in her own party developed...with consequences for the whole country (just count the scandals). Not the best and most skilled are now in leading positions but the most ardent Merkel-bootlickers. (One of the worst examples must be surely Altmaier for Wirtschaft and not to forget the Totalausfall Von Der Leyen in Brussels).

Seriously? You want really more of the same???


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