Additional capacity for Nordstream II - Germany plans to buy hydrogen from Russia and use NS II for transport

China knows that the way to juicy EU markets leads towards Central Europe, and they've been pushing the Belt and Road Initiative and 16+1 Initiative since at least 2012.

That's the only way for China to bypass the US control of the major trade routes and the domination on the seas.
America knows that very well hence such a great interest of the US in the 3 Seas Initiative.
So whether you like it or not, Poland, V4, and 3SI are key regions in this new cold war which begins to unfold.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperation_between_China_and_Central_and_Eastern_European_Countries

The V4 aren't a key region at all, except in fantasies. The only role that Poland plays for America is one in which she replaces the UK as "token puppet" in the EU.

....and the more antagonistic to Brussels the less valuable. A "trojan horse" is useless if it isn't "in"!

The thing with the V4 is that both Slovakia and the Czech Republic want nothing to do with antagonising the rest of the EU. The Czechs have made it clear on numerous occasions that they don't want a Poland-led V4, while the Slovaks don't trust Orban and Hungary in the slightest.

I'm sorry @delphiandomine but judging from my past experience discussing with you is like wrestling in the dirt with a pig. After a few short minutes, you discover that the pig likes it and you're covered in sh** from top to bottom.

I rather have this conversation with @Tacitus

Three seas, intermarrum is a only sure way to build strong and intepetnded Poland. If there nothing there it need to be build up. As to your geopolitical blind spot I will not comment.

Delphie makes a good point though. The other V4 part have shown a clear tendency to side against Poland on issues Warsaw deems important, particulary regarding opposition to Bruessels. Even leaving aside how influential the V4 can really be under the best circumstances, that does call the validaty of it being a serious military-political alliance in question.

3 Seas looks similar but worse. I mean no offense, but it has like 3 notable members - Poland, Czech Republic and Austria, the others are either too small or suffer from domestic problems like corruption to be taken seriously. And that is just the economy, it looks even worse militarily, with only Poland having any sort of remarkeable military. So even if there were no serious political differences between the members - and there are - it is hardly a notiveable alliance.

V4 is NOT a military-political (that's NATO) alliance but an economic-political alliance. It was created in 1991, way before any of our countries applied for EU membership and nobody wants to leave it to this day. Not bad for an irrelevant organization, right? And it got stronger after 2015 "wilkommen politics (btw. it amazes me is how relatively few people fully realize the importance and political implications of 2015 Merkel's decision. I've got no doubt this date will mark an important in future history books).

Another strong point of V4 is that it doesn't change the rules in the middle of the game and it doesn't try to rob any of its members of political sovereignty.

Remember that the EU had a humble beginning as a "European Coal and Steel Community" so don't underestimate the cooperation between CEE countries with a similar culture, history, and economic development.


And that's where the US steps in to act as an equalizer. So the whole initiative would not be sunk by the EU core (or without sugar-coating: by old German plans for mitteleuropa btw. I have to admit that I admire such a consequence) before it even takes off. And that's why I think that an initiative that could not work in the past (like pre-war Intermarium) can work now with an active US involvement in Europe.

3SI is correctly seen as a threat, or at least a major disruption, to a Franco-German political dominance Europe. Polish politicians diplomatically deny it, but let's be honest: it is not a brainchild of the EU, and it takes away a chunk of control from the Berlin-Paris-Brussels axis. But that's good, Europe needs real diversity and some competition between different politico-economic centers.

It was created just a few years ago and there are some large economic projects, mainly initiated by Poland, but serving the whole group: gas pipelines, Via Carpatia expressway connecting almost all the countries from Baltic to Mediterranean sea, 3SI investment bank, and so on.

It would have to be one to compensate for the looming American withdrawel from Europe.


I doubt that. 2015 will likely become a footnote at best, between the Eurocrisis and the Coronacrisis, with the latter completely obershadowing it. Because objectively speaking, its consequences have been minor compared to what came afterwards.


Well, assuming you allude to the EU, it is pretty clear that the EU does neither as well. The Eu did not "rob" sovereignity it was freely given by its members. Nor did it change the rules, rule of law were always a consition for membership.


Let us be perfectly clear here. Nobody in Germany cares for 3S, few have even heard about it. And I say this as someone who reads articles by German foreign policy think-tanks. Nobody feels threatened and as pointed out, even with greater political cohesion, the project doesn't look very imposing. It might have some economic merit, but no political cloud, led alone military.

Bottom line, your idea for guaranteeing Poland's security in the future are two lose alliances which are - not that strong in general - and are deeply divided in any case. I mean you can see this at the current budget negotiations. No country from V4 and S3 are willing to back Poland and Hungary. Yet for some reason those are supposed to be credible alternatives?

Well, then maybe I'm overestimating the insightfulness of the German political elites? So much for the better for 3SI. Without the correct assessment of the situation, an action to stop it will not be taken.

But, unfortunately, I think you're mistaken. A high-rank German politician was present on 3SI summits so far: a German foreign minister in 2018, a German president in 2019. And 2020 is "special" so there was a teleconference instead.


""Some political groups... are openly threatening to use the instrument wrongly called 'rule of law' in order to discipline individual EU Member States through a majority vote," Jansa said"

euractiv.com/section/all/news/slovenia-pm-backs-hungary-poland-in-eu-rule-of-law-row/

Or you are overestimating the influence of 3S and generally let your paranoia towards Germany cloud your judgement.


He talks a lot, but he wasn't willing to politically commit.

If I represented German interests I would also claim that any act of defense of its politico-economic interest by Poland, especially at the expense of German interests in Central Europe, is an act of "paranoia" of Poles towards Germany. Maybe if Germany repeated it one thousand times it would become a truth...

It is exactly what Putin says, in a more blatant form, about Poland. Coincidentally, the Politics of Poland in Central Europe stands against the wishes of both: Germany and Russia.

Well, that is a long term project. At least I hope there is. At very last it is a very good idea. V4 is not only about those countries.


It s long way to go. Rome wasn't build in a day.


A good start would be to build interconnecting infrastructure and trade them American gas.

Norwegian company withdraws from Russian Nord Stream 2 project

112.international/politics/norwegian-company-withdraws-from-russian-nord-stream-2-project-56824.html

Merkel and Putin may soon find themselves completely abandoned in their sweet embrace...

Interesting development....it seems the works on the Nord Stream pipeline have now completely stopped.

Rumours have it that the Gazprom pipe layer "Akademik Tschersky" left it's position in the Baltic Sea and is on it's way back to Kaliningrad.

Till now the Nord Stream 2 consortium (based in swiss Zug) denies any further comments...

taz.de/Raetselraten-ueber-Nord-Stream-2/!5737247/

TASS reported it as well. Probably something is broken or not working as it should, or they were simply testing to find out whether the Russians could actually get the job done by themselves.

At this point, it's clearly a matter of national pride for Russia, and the Americans are unlikely to try and sanction Germany for using it.

"Try and sanction" ?

U.S. Readying Fresh Round of Sanctions Against Nord Stream 2 Pipeline

oedigital.com/news/484157-u-s-readying-fresh-round-of-sanctions-against-nord-stream-2-pipeline

At this point, I'm not sure whether Germany is still trying to protect their economic interest (mostly at the expense of Ukraine and Baltic States) or are just plain stubborn and are willing to sacrifice more than they will gain just to be able to show a middle finger to America.

One thing is for sure like I said last year - the change in the White House will not change US policy against it because the matter is too serious, and not only a president but the army and big industry are making crucial decisions in this one big mess called 'democracy'.

Serious countries have serious long-term interests that don't change from one election to another.

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This is not just for Germany's sake, most of Western Europe would benefit from the deal economically. And proper safeguards have been taken that Ukraine would still get transit fees for the next years. Germany has shown so much solidarity with Eastern Europe during the last few years without anything in return, it is time to be a bit more selfish. Or more specifically, look out for its' economic interests like Poland and the USA does.

This is all about economics in the end. If the USA really wanted to sink NSII, they would just offer their gas at the same price as the one from Russia. But they don't because they want to sell their overpriced gas.

That German solidarity towards Poland wasn't selfless, starting with EU accession in the year 2004. So I would rather call it a businesslike relationship which was more profitable for Germany as a stronger side.

And while Germany, due to historical reasons, wasn't directly involved in attacking Poland and Hungary in the last few years, except for notable remarks about the "economic starvation" coming from German MEP Katarina Barley, on many occasions Berlin has sent its german shepherds - Juncker and Timmermans - to bite us by proxy.

Germany has since 2014

- orchestrated sanctions as retaliation for Russia's agression, which might have served the interests of Eastern Europe, but cost the German industry bns.

- brokered a peace treaty that likely saved the new democratic government in Kiev in the long run

- sent soldiers to Lithuania as reassurance.

Meanwhile the Polish government has since then

- refused to accept even a symbolic number of refugees

- peddled in Germanophobic slogans for domestic reasons

- almost disrupted the European response to the Covid pandemic because they like to continue undermining Poland's democracy.

But yeah, it is Germany who is behaving selfish here.


Aside from the fact that those remarks have nothing to do German-Polish relations and everything with Poland's violation of European norms, the crux is that those remarks are from some unknown backbencher, while you find distasteful and inflammatory remarks about Germany on the highest level in Poland.

Germany gives Poland new reasons to do so all the time.

This summer Fakt, a tabloid daily newspaper which belongs to Axel Springer, was meddling in Polish presidential elections making some shady accusations against the current president. "Germany is not going to elect the president of Poland" said Andrzej Duda. Kudos to him. He simply addressed the elephant in the room.


Germany must realize that nothing in Europe will be again like it was before the year 2015. I'llll repeat again, most people don't realize the significance and lasting socio-political implications of the 2015 "refugee" crisis and how it was handled.

And Germany has no one to blame for it but themselves.

Please, be sensible. They are tabloid journalists who prey on sensation and get profit from it. Nationality has nothing to do with it. It could be American or British ownership as well and they would publish the same things.

It is funny to see in you posts how inteligent people`s reasoning can be warped and distorted by their bias.

If the nationality doesn't matter then Germany and France should drop laws protecting their internal media markets from foreign takeovers.

If only they had such a wise advisor like yourself they would do it without hesitation I presume..

Don`t combine France with it, let`s focus on Germany. Now, pray tell us, what legal restrictions prevent foreign capital from buying media in Germany?

We had this conversation before. And I provided links and a description of the problem at hand.

If you don't remember it, then there's no point repeating it cause you'll forget again in a few months.

If you are determined enough you can find that conversation. And if you're not willing to, you can ask @Tacitus, I assume he is decent enough to clarify it.

And if you do remember it and just trolling it is so much less worth my time and effort to explain it.

Why don`t you show us where it is? I remember we talked about German-owned Fakt which published sth funny about Duda and PiS together with nationalists were furious. But we didn`t discuss the details of German restrictions in the media market for foreign capital.

So, if you could direct us to that site, please.


hahaha Nice withdrawal. You know you can`t find anything.

What kind of accusations? Mind you Springers' BILD is known for making often outrageous accusations against the government as their buisness model, so this doesn't seem out of the ordinary. It also in no way distracts from the fact that is the Polish government who likes to use pointless insults against Berlin, not vice versa. Or are we going to held governments responsible for statements of any random citizen?


2015 is easily the most overhyped event in recent memory, especially compared to the impact of the Covid crisis. What has changed because of this? The populist tide quickly abeded, and there were no serious consequences even for the countries who took in a lot of refugees like Germany.

It had arguably the most impact for Poland since it helped PiS secure victory, with the complete loss of any positive Polish influence on Bruessels since then.

I dont remember anything about restrictions on foreign media in Germany though, if you tell us what this is roughly about, I could investigate. Since there is RT Germany, I can't imagine them to be particular strict, but maybe I am wrong?

So, you also suffer from that strange amnesia, just like me. Let`s hope Spike will free us of our worries and explain what he meant.

Poland won't be German colony. Beside all else the EU economy is not that great. In fact only German economy is doing not so bad - take away Eastern Europe or even only Poland's market, take away NATO and add a cost of an army and it all go to the dogs very soon. Even Russian gas and some trinkets you sell them won't make much of a difference.

Why would Poland chain itself to a zombie that is about to go under? That makes no sense.


Oh get lost! Why do I have to suffer an exposure to moronic remarks from an idiot.


Will be much greater if Poland leave the EU.