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Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates


Ziemowit 13 | 4,088
28 Jun 2020 #1,621
First exit polls:
Duda: 41,8%
Trzaskowski: 30,4%
Hołownia: 13,3%

So Duda is the first, Trzaskowkli passes the threshold of 30%.
Lenka 3 | 1,980
28 Jun 2020 #1,622
Duda 41%
Trzaskowski 30%
Hołownia 13%
Bosak 7%
Biedron and Kamysz (!!!) 2%

Torq must be devastated
cms neuf - | 1,593
28 Jun 2020 #1,623
Quite a solid result for Duda - but Bosak lower than I expected and it seems the cultural right wing vote is not more than 10 percent.

Second round will be decided by less than 1 percent - very bad news for the country - we will see a pure East west old young urban rural divide - just like Brexit
mafketis 23 | 8,410
28 Jun 2020 #1,624
So Duda wanted a knockout.... and didn't get it.

I'm only worried about the PiS shame effect (as in EP elections were some percentage claimed to have voted for Konf but actually voted for PiS....)

disappointed for double K and still don't understand the appeal of Hołownia or who anyone thought he could get anything done without any kind of party support....
Lenka 3 | 1,980
28 Jun 2020 #1,625
The turnout is amazing! Almost 63%!!! That makes me really happy.

Bosak lower than I expected and

True, I feel the same way. We should wait for Spike's comment on that.

anyone thought he could get anything done without any kind of party support....

The role of Polish president is more to be a balance and safety valve. And of course our formal representation
Crow 139 | 8,620
28 Jun 2020 #1,626
@Lenka

Any idea, feeling, a hint, Lenka sestro?

The turnout is amazing! Almost 63%!!!

See, that`s info, too. By other posts I guess its Duda then. So, we continuing business, where we started, then. Good. Not that I was in fear but, well, times are little bit crazy, so who knows.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,088
28 Jun 2020 #1,627
anyone thought he could get anything done without any kind of party support....

Hołownia presented himself as a candidate of citizens (kandydat obywatelski). Poland's president is not like the US president. He has probably a little bit more practical power than the British Queen, so basically the president of Poland is the "guardian of the chandelier" at the Palace. So I think Hołownia could carry on well as a president.

I voted for Hołownia (by no means believing he would get to the next round) to show my distance to a party who so easily got rid of the long-term OFE program because it just wanted to fill up the current budget deficit.
Ironside 49 | 10,316
28 Jun 2020 #1,628
Torq must be devastated

such is a fate of fence sitters.

still don't understand the appeal of Hołownia

it is simple, it appeals to voters for whom PiS is too socialist and clumsy , PO too liberal and scummy and K is too radical. i.e. so called smart asses who aren't as smart as they think they are.

Bosak lower than I expected

lets wait for the final results. Bosak done well, sill a presidential election is more about a person that a party and Bosak doesn't have looks Polish people would see as a president but still he done well given how many people turned to vote.

Biedron on the fringe, Holownia voters at least half of them are potential K voters.
amiga500 - | 139
28 Jun 2020 #1,629
just t remind you delph, i was the only brave enough to make a prediction on the results apart from you, and i was correct :) 41.5-42.5 percent. Trashkowshi passing 30 percent is worrying though. Of course only exit poll.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,088
28 Jun 2020 #1,630
Trashkowshi passing 30 percent is worrying though

What worries you about him?

(So, the Wieczór Wyborczy is over, and recommend to everyone the Russian film "Anna Karenina" on TVP1 which has just started. If you turn the Polish sound off, you may follow the original track in Russian. Not sure if one can turn the English subtitles on, but certainly the Polish ones are available. A linguistic feast!)
Lenka 3 | 1,980
28 Jun 2020 #1,631
I voted for Hołownia

It seems he is planning on staying in politics. That may mean even bigger problems for PiS in the future. Hołownia to the centre and Konfederacja to the right...

I must say that he performed the best 'results speech' of the top three. It's possibly his media experience but I didn't have to cringe even once.

We have to remember we still have Polonia votes and postal ones...I wonder if that will change the result in a noticable way.

turn the Polish sound off, you may follow the original track in Russian.

Cool, thanks for the tip.
Spike31 3 | 1,638
28 Jun 2020 #1,632
We should wait for Spike's comment on that.

Lenka, those are still early unnoficial numbers from exit polls. I'll wait for the official results to analyze them
Lenka 3 | 1,980
28 Jun 2020 #1,633
I'll wait for the official results to analyze them

Do you think they will be that much different that it will change how you feel about the result?
Spike31 3 | 1,638
28 Jun 2020 #1,634
Lenka, are we talking about my feelings or about the results of the elections? :-)
Lenka 3 | 1,980
28 Jun 2020 #1,635
More like what you think about them. Is it satisfactory result for you or not? On one hand he is 4th which is really good but then a guy who entered politics 6 months ago has almost double the votes...

I wish I had the powers to see how it would all play out if there was no Coronavirus lockdown...Both Biedroń and Kosiniak-Kamysz went downhill after that.
Spike31 3 | 1,638
28 Jun 2020 #1,636
but then a guy who entered politics 6 months ago has almost double the votes...

That guy has powerful backers. He is nothing on his own

Both Biedroń and Kosiniak-Kamysz went downhill after that

At least now they can blame "pandemia" and not their own incompetence for the failure. This should also be a main line of defense for Kidawa-Blonska ;-)
Ziemowit 13 | 4,088
28 Jun 2020 #1,637
a guy who entered politics 6 months ago has almost double the votes

It means there is a multitude of people who are looking for a third option beyond the existing political duopoly. And Hołownia's good result also means that this third option isn't Konfederacja.
Lenka 3 | 1,980
28 Jun 2020 #1,638
That guy has powerful backers.

Are you tryimg to suggest that he is not a man?
And do you truly believe that those 'backers- convinced 13% of voters and not Hołownia?

But thank you for presenting a certain attitude I would like to discuss, namely reality distortion.

Here is a quote from SLD vice president about Biedroń's poor result:

Parliamentary elections and today's results proved that Poland is still waiting for social democratic president and not a right wing one, centre right or far right. But the will to remove Andrzej Duda from power was so strong that some Left voters decided to already in the first round vote for the candidate that has bigger support in polls and bigger chance to win

Seriously? How can left ever be a bigger player if we cannot openly say 'it didn't work, we made boo boo somewhere, let's correct it for next time'.

Here comes Bosak:

it seems it'sa historic moment. This results predict a change on the political scene. Konfederacja became third power in Poland.

Dude, you came fourth after an independent candidate and didn't even cross the 10%. . So instead of going all 'Oh, I'm the man' maybe realise that you just got your ass kicked by someone who 6 months ago was political nobody.

And now you Spike. Instead of seeing that centrist material, young and energetic demeanour and hell of an experience with media pay off you look for a boogie man. It scares me like hell that I see more and more people hiding their head in the sand while they should face what is there.

multitude of people who are looking for a third option beyond the existing political duopoly.

And they will get one sooner or later. Good centrist party could be a hit. PiS and PO are old and worn out with scandals and power abuse
Zlatko
28 Jun 2020 #1,639
Lol I guess Poland goes into my "vacation only" list for the next 4-5 years... may as well be Turkey or Italy. I will look up Sweden, Finland or Hungary for longer stay/expatriation. Orban is the one best leader of ex commie countries imo. Well at least your PM didn't get filmed in his sleep in his bedroom with 500 Euro banknotes and a Glock gun, but still PiS is a party that's more in line with the likes in the Balkans, Italy. :D
Spike31 3 | 1,638
28 Jun 2020 #1,640
Instead of seeing that centrist material, young and energetic demeanour and hell of an experience

Lenka, all I see is Kukiz #2, or better yet, new Petru created out of thin air. I'm just surprised that some Poles are still falling for that trick.

And yes, he doesn't exist outside of presidential elections because he doesn't have deep political structures. He is not a new political power but a shooting star created and aimed at absorbing a certain centrist/undecided electorate in a current presidential elections.

namely reality distortion.

That's why I'm not going to distort it by commenting on exit polls and not on official results.
Lenka 3 | 1,980
29 Jun 2020 #1,641
That's why I'm not going to distort it by commenting on exit polls and not on official results.

It seems that might be wise considering the numbers seem to change quite substantially. Sadly the numbers go against all the candidates beside Duda :/
mafketis 23 | 8,410
29 Jun 2020 #1,642
Sadly the numbers go against all the candidates beside Duda :/

PiS shame is a real thing.... some people who will vote for them are too embarrassed to admit it to pollsters....
amiga500 - | 139
29 Jun 2020 #1,643
Trashkowski back below the 30 percent danger mark, duda 45.24 after 83 percent counted. phew back to normal programming.
mafketis 23 | 8,410
29 Jun 2020 #1,644
At this point there are no truly terrible options I think.

Either Trzaskowski wins and there is some kind of pushback against PiS's commie ways....

If Duda wins PiS has no excuse when the bad economic figures start pouring in and no one to blame (I suppose the most gullible PiS supporters will still find a way to blame Tusk but if Duda wins there will be a very big national hangover by the end of the summer.
cms neuf - | 1,593
29 Jun 2020 #1,645
Duda needs another 5-6 percent to push him over the line

But he already made a huge dent in the Konfederacja support - so does he move right to mop up the rest ( which includes a lot of young voters) or go for moderation,

PiS seems to have got its vote out in the countryside quite well - strong turnout there
OP pawian 170 | 11,397
29 Jun 2020 #1,646
Trashkowski back below the 30 percent danger mark, duda 45.24 after 83 percent counted. phew back to normal programming.

ha! That`s natural. Province votes have been counted the quickest, as usual. We are still waiting for results from big cities full of intelligent patriots who don`t vote neobolsheviks. hahaha

The final result should be below 43% for Duda and over 30% for Trzaskowski.

That's why I'm not going to distort it by commenting on exit polls and not on official results.

Clever. :)
Crow 139 | 8,620
29 Jun 2020 #1,647
Work fast. Finish with voting and let us turn to business. Think of stability of state and confident leadership capable to lead Poland thru incoming war.
Lenka 3 | 1,980
29 Jun 2020 #1,648
The final result should be below 43% for Duda and over 30% for Trzaskowski

Over 99% od votes country.
Duda still close to 44% but Trzaskowski is back over 30%.
Clearly some of the people that said Bosak in the exit poll voted Duda
OP pawian 170 | 11,397
29 Jun 2020 #1,649
And vice versa. Swindlers, liars, like all of them. . hahahaha
Ziemowit 13 | 4,088
29 Jun 2020 #1,650
Latest poll for the second round (in %) in wirtualna polska:
Trzaskowski: 48,1
Duda: 45,8
Undecided: 6,1

A relatively large proportion of the undecided in the poll.

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