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Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates


delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
14 Jun 2020 #1,201
dorzeczy.pl/kraj/143456/ekspert-przegrzanie-tego-tematu-moze-zaszkodzic-andrzejowi-dudzie.html

The LGBT issue will certainly cement the hard PiS electorate, but with the support of only those voters, Andrzej Duda will not win the election.

This is from a PiS supporting and heavily government-funded magazine. It's worth reading, as it gives a clear warning to Duda that it's time to back off on the subject.

I'm looking at other political scientists now, and almost all of them seem to agree that Duda will lose śląskie. Trzaskowski is slightly struggling in łódźkie, and he hasn't made a major breakthrough in mazowieckie.

What's critical is that right wing political scientists aren't giving Duda more than 51% in the second round.
Atch 17 | 3,429
14 Jun 2020 #1,202
Travelling is so incredibly superficial and degenerate, I can't even find proper ways to describe how much it disgusts me

Your whole post sounded familiar so I checked and it's a copy and paste of the one you made on 13 May. Try to come up with some original ideas ;) Things are really bad when one is forced to plagiarize one's own self!

when in the history of mankind was such an extremely wasteful privileged experience even possible in the first place?

The Grand Tour - read about it.......and no, they weren't 'scholars'. They were just very privileged people. Nowadays more people sit on chairs, eat off plates, use cutlery and enjoy all the other 'privileges' of increased wealth for the masses, which includes going further than 10km from your own village.

Mods, I know, I'm straying dangerously close to 'off-topic' but please, please allow me the pleasure of adminstering this snub to one who so richly deserves it. Thanking you in anticipation of your kind indulgence, I remain your humble servant, Atch :)
jon357 66 | 17,078
14 Jun 2020 #1,203
a clear warning to Duda

Duda's tweeting in English, trying to backtrack and pretend his words were taken out of context!

They weren't. The reportage was entirely accurate. And he just risks alienating voters. The only ones he'd attract by that weird sort of rhetoric are ones who'd vote for him anyway.

when in the history of mankind was such an extremely wasteful privileged experience even possible in the first place

From the early 1840s railway boom in the U.K., when ordinary people could first afford to travel.

And before of course, for those with the financial wherewithal to do so, as Atch points out.
Atch 17 | 3,429
14 Jun 2020 #1,204
whoever causes one of these little ones who believe in me to sin,

He wasn't talking about children in the literal sense. You wouldn't be committing the sin of deliberately misrepresenting the Word of the Lord, now would you?
jon357 66 | 17,078
14 Jun 2020 #1,205
Matthew 18:6

That's nothing to do with LGBT matters.

The gospels don't mention them at all.

They mention quite a lot else though, like praying in private; something very different from Duda's public displays of religiosity.
mafketis 24 | 9,387
14 Jun 2020 #1,206
Let's get back to the real issue that the presidential race should be run on.... massive PiS incompetence and corruption and Duda's complete failure to act independently of their neo-PRL ways...

Completely inadequate economic response to the coronavirus economic dislocations.

Massive boondoggle projects that aren't need or wanted.

Shadowy economic doings of the Szumowski crime family.

Unrepentant PRL communist prosecutor appointed to the Supreme court.

Duda's spineless caving in to each and every demand by the first party secretary.
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
14 Jun 2020 #1,207
I didn't know Adrian spoke English - but there is no way he can claim this is fake news.

There will be a few international effects - I expect the US are considering their response. A slap on the wrist to Poland costs them nothing politically at home and I think the US ambassador has very inclusive values. She has been a positive surprise to me.

I also expect some effect on international investment in Polish stock market - of course most international funds left already but the ones who are left will not want To invest in govt owned companies until this blows over.
Ironside 50 | 10,940
14 Jun 2020 #1,208
Clearly you have no clue how important foreign policy is and how other countries use it to determine trade deals.

If they make choices basing it on a level of adherence to the neo-Marxist ideology Poland is better off without them. I'm pretty sure thought that decisions that really count are based on a potential profit.

Duda is so stupid to think that this ranting to the same people who will support him anyway will win new voters?

No, in this way he confirms (honestly or not) his adherence to principals. As this has been questioned by Bosak, so no, those people (not all) wouldn't vote for him regardless. In fact he might have gained a few votes. On the other hand people supporting that LGBT ideology wouldn't vote for him no matter what.

So that was a tactical choice.

about some priests? The obsession with gays is really telling.

1, Yes, gays shouldn't become priests. I agree. That would cut down number of abusers by at least 80% - given that overall number of offenders ain't that great that would made an inpat. Hey but if the church banned homosexuals' from being priests that cry about discriminations. As they say if you want to hit someone you'll always will find a stick.

2. the obsession with gays? WTF? Are you obsessed with them. You seemly post about them all the time. Ah I get it, if someone respond to your post and that response is not to your liking it automatically means someone is obsessed. Wouldn't that rather mean that you are dunce?

f PiS is completely incapable of, w

At least they build some infrastructure and won't completely surrender to Brussels demands.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
14 Jun 2020 #1,209
@Ironside
Dunce? I stopped name calling in grade school. I prefer to point out idiotic and antiquated ideology. Duda is simply moronic. He is bad for the country, so is PiS. Without foreign money, Poland is still stuck in 1991. Without EU money nothing PiS has done would be possible. The administration is nothing but cronyism and the country should be embarrassed. Making an issue out of gays? Stupid.

Whats the plan for economic recovery? Whats the plan for foreign policy? Who is going to pay for Ft. Trump? It sure wont be the USA, and where is that money going to come from? With USA taking troops out of Germany, the threat of Russia becomes greater. Trust PiS to deal with Putin? Yep, thats like sending the president to Russia with the whole cabinet and expecting everything to be ok. Wait a minute, that already happened.
mafketis 24 | 9,387
14 Jun 2020 #1,210
At least they build some infrastructure

What have they actually built?
Atch 17 | 3,429
14 Jun 2020 #1,211
Whats the plan for economic recovery? Whats the plan for foreign policy?

It was just the same years ago. That's Polish politics. I remember back in 2006/2007 watching so-called political programmes on Polish television. Nothing of importance to the welfare of the country or electorate was ever discussed. It was nothing but 'skandal' , lustracja and prokuratura, mud-slinging and finger pointing.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
14 Jun 2020 #1,212
Some sad news: Marcin Palade, a credible right wing political scientist (who sympathises with PiS, but who is very fair with his observations) has been given a death threat. This is absolutely disgusting, and I think all of us can condemn such threats. He's accused of being both a PiS-troll and a Trzaskowski-troll for his work and observations, yet in all the time that I've followed his work, he's been very fair with his assessments.

Anyway, some new predictions:

1st round

Duda 44,5%
Trzaskowski 29,1%
Hołownia 8,5%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 7,1%
Bosak 7,0%
Biedroń 3,0%

2nd round:

Duda 51,6%
Trzaskowski 48,4%

Voters to Duda in the 2nd round:

Hołownia 7%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 20%
Bosak 31%
Biedroń 5%

Voters to Trzaskowski in the 2nd round:

Hołownia 75%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 65%
Bosak 34%
Biedroń 90%

One thing to stress: there are really no reliable models showing how Konfederacja voters will behave in the 2nd round.
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
14 Jun 2020 #1,213
So I notice on my LinkedIn tonight that Dudas words are being shared widely, often by people I didn't think were political. This could have a serious blowback - especially for selling Polish bonds and for Poland's state owned banks - PKO, Alior and Pekao - by depositing money with them you are lending it to the Polish state.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
14 Jun 2020 #1,214
It's an incredibly risky game. He's dominating the headlines, but with such aggression, it's unlikely to persuade opposition voters to move to him. I've seen one analysis that suggests that Duda isn't trying to win opposition voters now, but rather he's trying to play to the 2nd round 'new' electorate who always appear.

The first debate will be interesting, especially if Duda chooses to ignore economic issues and focuses on social issues instead.
mafketis 24 | 9,387
14 Jun 2020 #1,215
if Duda chooses to ignore economic issues

Why would anyone let him do that? PiS is awful economically, they blundered into a boom they didn't understand or appreciate and are exposed and feckless when real economic savvy is called for.

Duda has gone all in with them, let him reap that.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
14 Jun 2020 #1,216
Why would anyone let him do that?

I think they'll almost certainly hammer him on economic issues, because there are simply no answers. Szumowski's business dealings will almost certainly feature as well.

Czarnek will allegedly be thrown out of PiS tomorrow, which suggests that they're already retreating from the LGBT topic.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,282
14 Jun 2020 #1,217
It's worth reading, as it gives a clear warning to Duda that it's time to back off on the subject.

Indeed, the subject has already been so much exploited that it sounds like a broken record now. On the other hand, this may simply mean that PiS has run out of steam if it needs to call back to such themes.

Massive boondoggle projects that aren't need or wanted.

What they need that exavation of the Vistula Spit for? A project that will do more harm than benefit surely ...

Thanking you in anticipation of your kind indulgence, I remain your humble servant, Atch :)

Now, is this Irish irony or has this forum slided down to an unprecedented level of bootlicking now?
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
14 Jun 2020 #1,218
On the other hand, this may simply mean that PiS has run out of steam

I think it's the old power fatigue thing more than anything. They're offering nothing new, and they seem to be blind to the problems that ordinary people have. It seems to me as if they've also made a huge blunder in assuming that Konfederacja supporters will vote for Duda over Trzaskowski, even though there's no evidence of them doing that.

One point - the amount of infections might still play a big part in scaring older voters away from voting, especially in Silesia.
Ironside 50 | 10,940
14 Jun 2020 #1,219
Making an issue out of gays? Stupid.

Possibly as I said it is an election. I'm sure they will backpedal over that after the election. PiS doesn't care about the issue one way or the other. Lost of people do. They don't want that LGBT lobby and activist to brainwash their kids in schools. simple eh?

Anyway Trzaskowski or PO won't be any better. If there is force in Poland that would do better I will tell you.

What have they actually built?

some highways some big projects started and some planned. Make more sense that 1000 airports for 1000 cronies to steal billions.

What they need that exavation of the Vistula Spit for? A project that will do more harm

You must be Russian lobbyist Ziemko.
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
15 Jun 2020 #1,220
Watch this space Spike as it is already happening - most speculators disregard ethics but the largest funds in bond purchases are US pension funds.

These include the state pension funds of California, New York, Illinois, Michigan etc and they all have ethical investment policies in place - this will be right on their radar and rightly so. So taking them out of the market will increase the borrowing cost and reduce the number of people willing to lend to PiS dinosaurs.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jun 2020 #1,221
Another poll:

First round:

Duda: 40.7%
Trzaskowski: 28%
K-Kamysz: 9.7%
Hołownia: 7.8%
Bosak: 7.1%
Biedroń: 3%

Second round:

Duda: 48.8%
Trzaskowski: 48.0%
Undecided: 3.2%
Ziemowit 13 | 4,282
15 Jun 2020 #1,222
Good news from the chapel situated in Węgliska near Łańcut. The retired priest Józef Kot said during the mass on Sunday: - Let God make everyone vote for Andrzej Duda. One of the parishioners, Monika, did not feel amused with that, so she went to see the chief parish priest to tell him about the incident. - You may go with it to the press or TV - she heard in reply.

The rzeszów-news.pl website then tried to contact both priests, but none of them answered the query. - There is no political activity on the Church premises in Poland - commented PiS MP Kazimierz Gołojuch who also attended the mass. - The priest is an ailing person who might have said a word too many and that is all there is to it.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jun 2020 #1,223
Provide sources

No need, I'd rather we discuss the poll results rather than the source.

In related news, Konfederacja claim that they're attracting bigger numbers to their rallies than Duda is. If this is true, Duda is in trouble.
mafketis 24 | 9,387
15 Jun 2020 #1,224
bigger numbers to their rallies than Duda is

The bits of his rallies I've seen on tv are kind of pathetic (with small unenthusiastic crowds huddled around him)
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
15 Jun 2020 #1,225
@Ziemowit
LMAO because the Catholic church, and a retired Priest know what's best for all of Poland? This is hilarious. Isn't it our current Pope who said that the church must be more tolerant and accepting of all people? Thank god that when everyone loses their jobs those gays will be out on the street with everyone else. LOL

@cms neuf
Excellent points cms. Not only are their rules internally for bond purchases but looking at the Polish economy after this quarter results are in will make people hesitate anyway. People think they understand the investment business, and economic issues when they really dont.

Anyone thinking the international business community wont turn their backs on Poland over this PiS crap isn't too smart. You never know who has a family member or a child that may belong to the alphabet soup group of movements. And you never know how influenced they are by that person in their family. People can think and feel how they want on these issues. Too express them, politicize and thus monetize the issue on a national level is simply the act of a moron.
amiga500 2 | 228
15 Jun 2020 #1,226
Anyone thinking the international business community wont turn their backs on Poland over this

Doesn't seem to have affected Dubai and Abu Dhabi where being homosexual is you know, Illegal, You can say they have oil but investment/tade is happening in to all sorts of areas. I believe western tourists go there.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
15 Jun 2020 #1,227
@amiga500
You couldn't be more incorrect in your opinion. Having been to the Middle East myself, I can say that seeing an American of Canadian there who isn't in the Military or Oil business simply isn't happening. I know a few, very few Poles who went there, but it was to work. Both countries are crazy expensive to visit and not worth the money. Oil is the only draw for the west. And you think that Dubai and Abu Dhabi seriously want to promote Poland who outright says they don't want people of color? Wow talk about grasping at straws.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jun 2020 #1,228
And another:

Duda: 40.5%
Trzaskowski: 28.9%
Hołownia: 10.6%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 8.6%
Bosak: 7.3%
Biedroń: 3.8%

You have to wonder what kind of deals are being offered to Bosak right now...
johnny reb 28 | 5,329
15 Jun 2020 #1,229
That's nothing to do with LGBT matters.

Sure it does.
Stars of banned condom ad fear Duda's re-election.
For Jakub Kwiecinski, a ban by Poland's public broadcaster on a condom advertising featuring him and his husband has come as no surprise, but it does make him uneasy about what targets a government clampdown on LGBT rights.

Duda's the man for Poland.
Ironside 50 | 10,940
15 Jun 2020 #1,230
But you don't understand the Bible..

Oh **** off with that protestant take on things, it happened since VII - RCC become more protestant like - no good at all. And you are a prime example why it is no good.

LMAO

Showing you true colors lol!

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