Poland vis a vis the US and Iran

Thinking there should be a thread on this topic.

I'll start by noting that the US has spent the last year or so saying it doesn't need any allies... and dissing Ukraine..... and now they're bellyaching that the allies they don't need aren't stepping up...

And... a US Embassy was hit by an Iranian drone (which Ukraine would have known how to prevent) and caught fire

And now they're calling it.... a "Special Combat Operation"

So far, the only mention of "Poland" is in the title.

So many similarities to the Ukraine war

- no clear aim, the war is its own justification
- obsession with projecting power
- pushed by the most extreme elements of the regime

Some of the Christian mysticism around this invasion, which is being reported is extremely weird.

I suppose the main difference is that the US military is far more competent than the drunk rapist North Nigerians. At least until the neee to put troops on the ground

There are three options as I can see them without in-depth study:
-The Iranian regime collapses, and they will come to some kind of agreement - very unlikely.
- The US will wise up and will cut its losses and, after claiming victory, it will withdraw.
- They will continue on the path of war and will call for troops on the ground, which will keep the U.S. busy and focused on Iran while neglecting other fronts. This is when World War III could really flare up. Sorry, dudes and dudesses.
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They are being PC. It should read - Retarded Combat Operation.

The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces in a bid to spark a popular uprising in Iran, CNN reported overnight Wednesday, citing several sources familiar with the plan.

Iranian Kurdish armed groups maintain thousands of fighters along the Iraq-Iran border, mainly in Iraq's Kurdistan region. Since the war began, several groups have issued public statements hinting at imminent action and urging Iranian military personnel to defect.

It is nothing new. Sowing discord and false hope just to create chaos. The question is: Are Iranians competent or not?

I'll just put this out there. There's one school of thought that this isn't about Iran/Israel at all but about China...

FYI only, just putting this out there....

One idea (put forth by Velina Tchakarova, Bulgarian with a good predictive track record) is that a new Cold War is in the offing with china-russia on one side and the US on the other. A lot of what the Trump administration does is about trying to get Europe and India (and some others but those two especially) to get off the fence and choose a side.

Another is that China is not just preparing to invade Taiwan but wants to become a hemispheric hegemon and to the end is preparing for war against the US in the Pacific.
The big flaw here is that dictator Xi is very stupid and has purged the leadership of the Chinese army beyond the point of functionality.

x.com/vtchakarova/status/2027760337659834725

Its a new age....and the borders of zones of influences are newly drawn...the main two Alphas, the US and China, will fight it out with lotsa proxy wars.

But yes, its decision time.....and the idea that Europe could stay neutral, or "go it alone", is funny....

Sincere question.... is Merz retarded? He seemed completely over-impressed by a show of remote control robots in China and that started yammering that Germans need to work more.... like China? Which has tried to normalize a 72 hour work week?

What is up with that dude?

But in the old cold war it was obvious which side to choose - the US stood for good things like democracy, the rule of law and the free market.

That's not the case any more - they are run by weird morons, and 70 million of them voted for it

The judgement is still out yet! :)

But even his german adversaries mean he has a better skill "out side" of Germany, in foreign policy (where also his passion might lie), than inside...with the daily dreary domestic policy....

What it brings in the end, I dunno....one shouldn't forget his new accord with Macron...he is the first german leader in awhile to achieve that!

elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2026/03/01/joint-statement-by-the-leaders-of-france-germany-and-the-united-kingdom-on-indiscriminate-iranian-attacks-on-countries-in-the-region

The context here is that there is currently a debate in Germany on how to regain competivness. Over the years, Germans have been working less and less per hour en average, while also competing with the rest of the world. And since productivity is no longer improving and in light of the oncoming demographic decline, it is only logical to ponder if Germans need to work more in the future.


Trouble is, Trump is very stupid as well. He has given the Europeans (and other potential allies) less and less reason to side with the USA over China and constant threats are only getting him so far. He was able in the past to leverage potential support against Russia in negotiations on other matters (e.g. the tariff deal).

But what happens if the USA now empties its' arsenal against Iran, and the EU shoulders almost the entire burden of supporting Ukraine? We will find out in time.

.....the arms industry is a proven motor of any economy!

I doubt Trump will the US one letting "empty out", quite the contrary would be smarter.....building up to the future clashes with China's lapdogs the US will need weapons and lots of it...and the best, most modern ones....these need to be developed and produced, that means jobs and earnings!

These guys are not very imaginative.

"Press the Kurd button, bro, it works every time!"

If the Kurds buy these American approaches for THE THIRD TIME, I will lose all respect for Kurds.

Every time they stick their neck out for America, it ends up ditching them in the worst way possible - but only after it got from them what it needed.


Admin is right. I'll try to bring it back to Poland.

-//-

As I see it - the most direct consequence for Poland is obviously the effect that this parallel war will have on Ukraine.

There everything seems clear.

Ukraine will receive less interceptors, Russia will receive less drones and ballistic missiles. America will lose interest in the conflict, and it will become Europe's responsibility entirely.

-//-

Other than effects on the war in Ukraine, the biggest effect has to be in the energy sphere.

Iran supplied 13% of all Chinese oil imports. Now Bloomberg and the FT are writing that China has no choice but to massively expand purchases of Russian oil. Using its new leverage, Russia is negotiating shallower discounts to its crude. All this leads to more money for the state budget, and hence for the war in Ukraine.

On the other hand - after cutting itself off Russian supplies of gas - the EU largely reoriented towards Qatar and the USA.

Qatar has shut down its LNG export terminals. America is cashing in by charging Europeans double the price during this week's new trades.

Articles quote European energy analysts that argue that at some point there "will be no choice but to resume some level of Russian supplies".

At the same time - the EU has legally obligated itself to cease all Russian gas purchases by 2027.

So.... something has to give.

Either the war in Iran ends very soon, and Qatari shipments are resumed in full - or Europe will again be facing 2022 level gas prices.

Good move by the admin moving this thread. The USA section isn't the place for another anti-Trump group therapy session. Nice to see it moved where it belongs.

Funny how the same people who were furious about Putin and nonstop posting about Ukraine suddenly don't seem to care anymore. It's almost like the outrage just moved on to the next thing.

Tomorrow they'll find something else to be outraged about. Attention spans aren't exactly long these days.


No wonder you're so confused. You actually believe CNN is real news instead of anti-Trump propaganda.

Of course it is.

There is no need for something like this at all. Just turn on the TV (in my case in Germany). The bare facts will suffice.

I doubt Trump cares much about the logistical side of warfare. It requires too much reading.

The U.S. Military's Great Tomahawk Missile Shortage Looks Inevitable Thanks to the Iran War

19fortyfive.com/2026/03/the-u-s-militarys-great-tomahawk-missile-shortage-looks-inevitable-thanks-to-the-iran-war/

Scaling up production takes years. What happens if they need those weapons in one year when e.g. China invades Taiwan?

True...


CNN has been caught lying so many times that its ratings are the lowest they've ever been.

1. CNN ratings have dropped a lot from their peak.
During the 2020 election and early pandemic they had huge viewership. Since then the numbers fell sharply. By 2023-2024 several reports showed CNN often third behind Fox News and MSNBC in prime time, and some time slots dropped below 500k viewers.

2. CNN has had several high-profile corrections or controversies.
Examples critics bring up include:

The Covington Catholic student story (2019) where multiple outlets, including CNN, settled defamation lawsuits after early reporting about the confrontation.

Chris Cuomo's firing (2021) over helping his brother, former NY governor Andrew Cuomo, deal with sexual-harassment allegations.

Retractions or corrections on certain breaking stories about Trump where details changed later.

3. CNN leadership has acknowledged credibility and ratings issues.
When Chris Licht became CEO in 2022 he openly said the network needed to rebuild trust and broaden its audience. He was later replaced after continued struggles.

If there is a competition for biggest liar I believe Trump would win hands down. His chief propagandist lied about Spain changing its very correct stance on the illegal war

@Barney

Haha!

What goes in inside that guy's head?

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Sue me, I wanted to get some discussion going first on the general topic.

What is clear is that Poland cannot rely on the US.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If the US abandons Ukraine then it will abandon Poland when the time comes (and it's coming).

This should be a wake up call for Poland to take a more active role in European leadership..

The question is will PiS and/or Nawrocki realize this or try to hitch their wagon on and increasingly erratic government that gives every indication of going off the rails...

there, happy?

I agree. I haven't seen such a pathological liar in my life.


God knows... In his meeting with Merz on Tuesday he claimed that his father was born in Germany even though he was born in New York lol It was his grandparents who were born in Bavaria. And it's not the first time that Trump made this false claim about his father - he also did it in 2018, 2019 and 2020. What's more, earlier in his book "The Art of the Deal" Trump claimed that his grandfather was from Sweden o_O:

thedailybeast.com/confused-trump79-forgets-what-country-his-father-was-born-in/

Btw, Trump's father had dementia too. And his paternal grandfather was stripped of his German citizenship for dodging compulsory military service, so it looks like it runs in the family lol


Yup.


They're betting on a losing horse, imho.

By the "losing horse" I mean Trump and his MAGA administration.

Trump holds the office now. Poland shouldn't be telling Americans how to vote, nor should we snub their president just because he might be unpopular with some

But Poland absolutely cannot trust or depend on the US at present..

What do you propose we do about it?

Gooood doggie! What a gooooood boy!

You deserve a treat.

-//-

Maybe this is why Poland is not necessarily the most popular country in the EU?

Instead of solidarity with the Spanish, or the Danes (with whom, you know, you share a friggin' Union) - just ensure you don't say something that irritates Trump.

America will surely reward your loyalty, and your European friends will surely understand - eventually - once they get over it.

Relations should be cordial and professional and no favors. Trump (all US presidents) are the type to ask for favors with unspecified benefits in the future that never happen.

Service for payment only.

I'm sure sovereign Russia will change its geopolitical alignement and stop sucking Chinese greasy cock.

Any day now...

Yes, but not for long probably, considering Trump's dementia.


You're arguing against something I didn't write. 🤨


That's not what I wrote though.

I'm afraid PiS is supporting Trump and MAGA so strongly (and blindly, it seems) not because it's good for Poland, but for ideological reasons and because they think Trump and the American big tech will help them win next elections. But it's apparently possible that Trump won't make it as president to that time and there's a pretty significant possibility that Democrats will win the midterms. That's why I wrote that PiS is "betting on a losing horse."


Polish government has shown solidarity with Denmark. PiS is a different story though...