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TODAY Presidential election in Belarus Dec 19... Will it be pro-Poland?


David_18 68 | 983    
  19 Dec 2010  #1
Today there will be a presidential election in Belarus, hopefully it will be a peacefull one that will be the first truly democratic election in Belarus.

Lukashenko stated that he was very sad and even said that Poland and Germany were being rude to come to Belarus and promote Democratic values in a country that already got it. He even said to the German foreign minister that he could come and count the votes.

So lets say Lukashenko speaks the truth for once... Will he get re-elected in a truly democratic election and if not, who will take his place then?

If Belarus now gets a new democratic goverment, will it be pro polish? Will Poland support it? Would Poland promote Belarus in the EU and maybe even get it into the EU. And if Belarus would get into the EU would it ally itself with Poland in the unions politics?

Article about the election

ft.com/cms/s/0/4b480b00-0b65-11e0-a313-00144feabdc0.html#axzz18Z5vM4ep
Seanus 15 | 19,716    
19 Dec 2010  #2
The extent of the closeness would depend on Russia who have a major grip on Belarus. Belarus would be doing itself a favour by allying itself with Poland. There is potential for business there and it would be a step forward for them.
southern 76 | 7,103    
  19 Dec 2010  #3
I guess Lukashenko will score very low(maybe less than 95%).
Nathan 18 | 1,363    
  19 Dec 2010  #4
It won't be democratic in the ideal interpretation of this word even though there are quite a few candidates for the post. I know a few people from Bielorus' who say it is a very controlled state and people are afraid to even say things to each other. But again the people I heard it from are of Russian origin and as you know love to the host countries is not existant in those creeps.

Why should Bielorus' be pro-Polish? Pro-European, maybe. On the other hand, both Poland and Bielorus' should be interested in supporting each other. Poland will definitely get an ally if in future Bielorus' joins EU and also it will have nice neighbor instead of Asiatic hordes of Ugro-Finns. I know that some on PF think that Poland is invincible, the richest and the best country of them all and I support such idea - Poland would conquer the world alone and bring culture to all barbaric nations it borders with. I know it. Who else will enlighten us all? Nobody, but highly educated and super-intelligent Poland. But still it might be a great idea to try to get an ally like Bielorus'. Bielorusyns are great people - honest and hard-working. I bet they will be a huge asset in EU not like EU's beloved gypsies.
PennBoy 76 | 2,438    
19 Dec 2010  #5
Lukashenko

isn't it Lukashenka in Belorussian?

Bielorusyns are great people - honest and hard-working

Agreed i've met a few and all were nice people, very non nationalistic wouldn't you agree Nathan? ;)
Nathan 18 | 1,363    
19 Dec 2010  #6
very non nationalistic wouldn't you agree Nathan? ;)

Of course, I wouldn't. But I am fully aware that denial of some other people's national feelings is a part of mentality of many over here. They had some rough history and most of their intelligentia was eliminated and the rest fed pro-Russian Soviet propoganda with forced deversive settlers who still work as RF agents within Bielorus'. They will get out of this sooner or later - they are people who want to live by the laws of civilized, democratic society.
isthatu2 4 | 2,708    
20 Dec 2010  #7
Christ,lets just hope its pro Belarussian!
Bialorusin 1 | 13    
20 Dec 2010  #8
I was on the Square. Horrible, the people were beaten by special forces! And they were using metal shields which were edged on the bottom! I have never seen smth like that in my life, cuz SF were using their sharp edged shields not as shields, but as a weapon against people hitting us with a sharp edge. Poor old lady got a hit (batoned) with a police club and she got unconscious, after that policemen kicked her for a several times, thanks God, someone from the crowd pull out her from there. I couldn't believe that! They could even kick her to death! Maybe she is someones mother, someones parent.

I was scared to death...
wildrover 98 | 4,455    
21 Dec 2010  #9
Lukashenko said before the election that there would be no change of leadership , so he was either very confident of his popularity , or more likely he was sure the election was going to be rigged in his favour...!

He is actually quite popular with the old folks , and those living out in the sticks , but the fact that they need to beat up anyone who opposes them suggests to me that he was not that sure of winning....

I have some good friend in Belarus , they are good people , but i think they have a way to go before they can be called a democratic country....
Bialorusin 1 | 13    
21 Dec 2010  #10
but i think they have a way to go before they can be called a democratic country....

Yes, a long bloody way to democracy................ :)
wildrover 98 | 4,455    
21 Dec 2010  #11
It will happen...i just hope when it does its without spilling any blood...
Velund 1 | 314    
21 Dec 2010  #12
It will happen...

Almost certainly, yes. But will it bad or good finally?

What real democracy is?

Imagine that you have a referendum on some question related to physics. Vote of Albert Einstein would have the same weight as vote of some declassed alcoholic with IQ < 70.... One people - one vote.

Don't you feel that something is wrong with that version of democracy?

If you will ask me what to improve - I don't know.

Tried to think about it - but possible scheme become quite complicated.... After a birth someone have one vote, unrevocable. After a successful graduation from school - one additional vote. After army service or equivalent civil service - one more vote. Graduated from university - two more votes. Science degree - two more votes. Every 10 years of professional career (and related life experience) - one more vote (but maximim is 4 additional votes). Nobel prize or some equivalent international prize - plus 20 votes.

Don't you feel that such "modified" democracy will give beter results for whole society?
Nathan 18 | 1,363    
  21 Dec 2010  #13
Don't you feel that such "modified" democracy will give beter results for whole society?

In order to function your system needs someone who will assign votes: a person, a group of people, a committee - as you see we will get to the same undemocratic principle when some group will be in power to control how much you will get. It will influence any step along your way to get as much votes as possible. They will find the reason why your army service or university degree was not good enough. Having one vote out of each individual is sufficient and what low IQ might lack in math or physics, it will gain in honesty and loyalty to one's country which is a hard thing to find in "high-IQed" personalities. IQ is a very, very relative notion - it has nothing to do with complexity of social life. Giving away votes based on IQ tests is very wrong. What would you say if we tax people on IQ basis?

Yes, a long bloody way to democracy................ :)

You will be a democratic country sooner or later - it is a part of your people's nature.

It will happen...i just hope when it does its without spilling any blood...

And I hope there will be as much blood as possible - otherwise, democracy won't last long. Until Belorus' or Ukraine won't spill blood in their capitals big time, both countries will be living in pseudo-democratic states - only the Constitutions will be democratic, not their application.
guesswho 4 | 1,293    
21 Dec 2010  #14
What would you say if we tax people on IQ basis?

You mean like the higher IQ the more taxes to pay?
Nathan 18 | 1,363    
21 Dec 2010  #15
Yes. It is to me the same as to give people votes based on their IQ or life achievements. What do you think?
guesswho 4 | 1,293    
  21 Dec 2010  #16
Yes

I'd say, the Russians wouldn't pay any taxes (just kidding)
Velund 1 | 314    
  21 Dec 2010  #17
Giving away votes based on IQ tests is very wrong. What would you say if we tax people on IQ basis?

I do not mean IQ (it is artificial thing that hardly have any practical application). I meant education and experience level.

Hm... Interesting idea though. Every additional vote mean additional taxes. ;) If some commitee tries to cut down some of your votes - they should tell tax department guys why they cannot get some additional $$ from you. ;)

And it looks fair. If somebody wants greater influence on how tax money will be spent - it should be ready to pay a bit more in taxes. ;)
Nathan 18 | 1,363    
21 Dec 2010  #18
Hm... Interesting idea though. Every additional vote mean additional taxes. ;) If some commitee tries to cut down some of your votes - they should tell tax department guys why they cannot get some additional $$ from you. ;)

But you know how this will be done in the post-Soviet arena: you will be cut vote-wise and imposed with taxes. A chosen few will have hundreds of votes and pay no taxes. It is not an idea that is bad, this is a system of regulations and incrusted mentality of homo soveticus which prevents people live like the rest of the civilized world.

And it looks fair. If somebody wants greater influence on how tax money will be spent - it should be ready to pay a bit more in taxes. ;)

You see this is the practice in the West - people who earn more, usually, are well educated or work in fields which demand their work and it is in short supply and as a result pay more. I don`t know what is the RF practice in taxes, but in Ukraine it is based on the descending basis: the less you earn the more you pay in taxes. That is outrageously wrong.
Velund 1 | 314    
  21 Dec 2010  #19
I don`t know what is the RF practice in taxes

Currently - flat 13% personal income tax.

which prevents people live like the rest of the civilized world.

During my last visit to Europe, just recently I driven from Vilnius to La Rochelle (near Bordeaux) via Brussels and back, I seen many things that I would not want to see in Russia.

Just to mention - small city near Brussels, around 3 pm, workday. Every other person you meet on the streets - black or arabian looking, they not hurry at all, sitting in cafe or just walking. Looks like they quite happy with welfare and even not think to find a real job.
Nathan 18 | 1,363    
21 Dec 2010  #20
I seen many things that I would not want to see in Russia.

I am with you on this one. I don't want to see that in Ukraine either.

Currently - flat 13% personal income tax.

It is really cool. What about corporations, partnerships, LLCs etc.?
Velund 1 | 314    
  21 Dec 2010  #21
What about corporations, partnerships, LLCs etc.?

No problem at all to create. Real pain in the a$$ to liquidate.

Tax structure is much more complicated compared to one for private persons (unless you use one of special taxation schemes allowed for small business).

I don't want to see that in Ukraine either.

What? You think that Belgium is not civilized country? ;) And do not want to make Ukraine look alike? ;)
Nathan 18 | 1,363    
21 Dec 2010  #22
What? You think that Belgium is not civilized country? ;) And do not want to make Ukraine look alike? ;)

Where have I said that? Each country has some problem to deal with. Do you want to say that the way an average Belgian lives now is even remotedly similar to the way an average Russian or in my case, Ukrainian, does? Instead of some group of immigrants that doesn't want to work, there is a group of own people drunk at the liquor store, dressed as if it was the end of the world. It is basically the same thing. IMHO, a country should have tough immigration laws and make sure there is no 130,000 people dying from alcohol every year. Better to see a non-working immigrant than own people dying like flies because of reckless policies of the state.

Tax structure is much more complicated compared to one for private persons

Yes, sure.
OP David_18 68 | 983    
  22 Dec 2010  #23
Goodbye democracy!!!

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko extended his crackdown on opponents Tuesday, as authorities charged around 600 activists with taking part in an unsanctioned protest and threatened to disband political parties and organizations involved in Sunday's protest against his landslide re-election.

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703581204576033562141922024.html

What a pain in the ass it must be to live in a country like this...
southern 76 | 7,103    
22 Dec 2010  #24
What a pain in the ass it must be to live in a country like this...

It is my next target.Viva Lukashenko!
Borrka 37 | 594    
22 Dec 2010  #25
Why should Bielorus' be pro-Polish? Pro-European, maybe. On the other hand, both Poland and Bielorus' should be interested in supporting each other. Poland will definitely get an ally if in future Bielorus' joins EU

Nathan, don't you think this statement is innerly contradictory ?
Belorussian should be pro-Polish and vice versa because of some quite evident political profits it may bring to the both nations.
As a matter of fact same goes for Ukraine versus Poland.

And I wish some real consensus about that deal.
It's easy to declare "Oh how I do love French or Nigerians or Never Never-landers lol" but take it for granted it's a worthwhile effort to support your closest neighbor.
OP David_18 68 | 983    
22 Dec 2010  #26
It is my next target.Viva Lukashenko!

I wish you the best matey!

I wonder what a beer costs in Belarus ^^
wildrover 98 | 4,455    
22 Dec 2010  #27
I wonder what a beer costs in Belarus

I can,t remember exactly..but its very cheap...and quite nice...
OP David_18 68 | 983    
22 Dec 2010  #28
Do they have international brands?

And do they have their own brands? Never heard of Belarusian beer brands ^^
wildrover 98 | 4,455    
22 Dec 2010  #29
I will have to drag out some of my old photos and see if i can spot any beer bottles...!

Yes they have Belarussian beers , i don,t know what international brands they have , i usually try to sample the local stuff when i am in some far off place...

I am sure you can probably get non local beers there...

Yussssss i remember the data beer...lovely stuff...
OP David_18 68 | 983    
22 Dec 2010  #30
I will have to drag out some of my old photos and see if i can spot any beer bottles...!

It's dangerous to look at old photos, especially photos with beer on them! Makes you wanna travel back and suck that beer barrel dry!

Ow my god you made me search for my photos i have from Kreuztal in Germany. I would do anything to have a zip from those delicious Krombacher beers.

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