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Will Poland Run Out of Russian Gas?


David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #1
Poland will soon use up the Russian gas available under its current contract with Gazprom and will stop getting gas from Russia right when the weather is about to get really cold, in mid-October...

The country has been negotiating a revised gas supply contract with Gazprom for almost two years, dragging its feet to avoid caving in to the giant that wants to keep gas prices linked to the prices of oil, and make sure Poland continues to take high volumes even if it diversifies its supplies. Gazprom also wants a Poland-registered venture in which it is a shareholder to forgive some of the debts the Russian firm owes for gas transit through the country.

blogs.wsj.com/new-europe/2010/09/24/will-poland-run-out-of-russian-gas/

One of the comments on this article was

If I were a Pole I would not sign the deal with Russians. I would simply use the gas going to Germany through Poland. Let the Germans worry, they deserve this headache for supporting their Russian allies in this gas war against Poland.

I couldn't agree more....

Would be really nice to see Polands western neighbours starting to care a little bit more then just thinking about them selfs and making deals behind Polands back like "North stream".
pgtx 30 | 3,168    
24 Sep 2010  #2
Norwegian gas is too expensive so start chopping wood people... ;)

*i thought that the Polish government stated Poland has so much gas it will last longer then in Western countries... who said that...?
;)
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #3
That was about shale gas ;) still 2-4 years to go before we will see anything of that.
convex 20 | 3,985    
24 Sep 2010  #4
Poland has zero leverage here. Why should Poland be provided any preferential treatment when it comes to the price of gas? Don't want to sign the contract, don't receive gas. Yamal isn't the only line to Russian gas for Germany, but it is the only way for Poland to get gas.
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #5
If you read the article you will see that Russia wants more then just that...
convex 20 | 3,985    
24 Sep 2010  #6
The article is a bit loaded:

One other issue is also becoming crucial: Gazprom also wants to keep control over the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline to Germany and doesn’t want to allow other companies to use it. This would violate the European Union’s law and has prompted the European Commission to step into the negotiations.

Gazprom doesn't have majority control of the Polish section of Yamal. It's a joint Russian-Polish venture that was set to be taken over by Poland this month. The deal was that long term gas contracts would be signed in exchange for giving up pipeline ownership. They couldn't do that because that would violate EU law.

This is the first I've read about Gazprom having outstanding transit fee debts anywhere in Europe.
Bratwurst Boy 5 | 8,126    
24 Sep 2010  #7
Let the Germans worry, they deserve this headache for supporting their Russian allies in this gas war against Poland.

And still people ask why Russians and Germans want to bypass Poland with North Stream and other pipelines...tsk tsk ;)
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #8
The article is a bit loaded:

Yes indeed but either way Russia is using their monopoly against Poland in a very nasty way that showes their true face,

They know that ATM Poland have no other Gas supplier then Russia and if Poland wont receive gas very soon the polish industri will collapse. Poland will be forced to sign a crappy contract that will only be in favour for Russia.

It's like buying water from a greedy beduin in the desert!!!!!
convex 20 | 3,985    
24 Sep 2010  #9
How is it a crappy contract? What do you think should be done? Should Poland be sold gas for less than market rates, and if so, why?

Russia isn't the only gas supplier, they're just the cheapest.

One a side note, why has Poland been sitting on it's ass while at the same time complaining left and right? What happened to the pipeline from Denmark which was going to be funded partially by EU money? You know, the pipeline that was meant to bypass Germany and provide Poland access to "cheap" Norwegian gas.
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #10
How is it a crappy contract? What do you think should be done? Should Poland be sold gas for less than market rates, and if so, why?

What do you call this?

but still the most likely scenario is Poland will eventually sign the agreement for fear of shortages

Is this fair in your eyes?

Russia isn't the only gas supplier, they're just the cheapest.

Tell me who got a pipeline ready to provide Poland with gas enough to satisfy a whole country from Oktober?

the pipeline that was meant to bypass Germany and provide Poland access to "cheap" Norwegian gas.

Germany already got acces to norwegian gas and Norway is not Political instabil like Russia that is a country that uses Gas as an economic weapon....

Russia, Norway, and the United Kingdom are the largest exporters of oil and gas to Germany
convex 20 | 3,985    
24 Sep 2010  #11
What do you call this?

The article is wrong about the ownership, I already pointed that out. The bit about transit fees is interesting as well, there is no evidence of that anywhere. In fact, the deal in January called for lowering gas prices in exchange for lowering transit fees.

It's a 15 year contract at 10b m3 a year. Poland isn't a large market for Gazprom. They are much more worried about securing long term transit deals.

That seems pretty fair to me.

Tell me who got a pipeline ready to provide Poland with gas enough to satisfy a whole country from Oktober?

You'll like this, the Germans could physically deliver it. But what would happen is that Poland would pay Ruhrgas Norwegian prices for gas, and provide Russian gas...Either for cheap on the eastern border, or for quite a bit more money on the western border.

That all ignores the fact that you can put it into a tanker.

Germany already got acces to norwegian gas and Norway is not Political instabil like Russia that is a country that uses Gas as an economic weapon....

Right, but Poland wanted to build an underwater pipeline to Denmark to bypass Germany (and the transit fees), just like Germany is doing with Nord Stream.
pgtx 30 | 3,168    
24 Sep 2010  #12
Will Poland Run Out of Russian Gas?

if Poland runs out of gas, there is always wildrover to supply you... ;D
Wroclaw 45 | 5,403    
24 Sep 2010  #13
yes, but will he increase costs as he is moving to russia. and worse, will he join forces with gazprom.
pgtx 30 | 3,168    
24 Sep 2010  #14
if the Polish side supplies him with the 1st class beans, Russians won't have any chance to get him... i'm pretty confident about that...
wildrover 98 | 4,458    
24 Sep 2010  #16
and worse, will he join forces with gazprom.

Certainly not.... my bean gasses will be available to Polska at a very reasonable price , Russia has plently of gas going to Ukraine to make money out of....
delphiandomine 86 | 16,323    
24 Sep 2010  #17
Should Poland be sold gas for less than market rates, and if so, why?

I'd say that the contract is more than fair. Russia has gas. Poland wants gas and has something to offer (the transit pipeline) in return.

Poland can take it or leave it - I doubt Russia cares which option they take.

It's so funny when people who talk about "democracy" also talk about forcing Russia to sell something at lower than market price in the interests of fairness.
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #18
Poland wants gas and has something to offer (the transit pipeline) in return.

Why ain't money just enough? don't think Germany is forced to sign these kinda unfavourable contracts...

Poland can take it or leave it - I doubt Russia cares which option they take.

Exactly... and this is what i call using energy as a weapon.

It's so funny when people who talk about "democracy" also talk about forcing Russia to sell something at lower than market price in the interests of fairness.

Could you enlighten me about Poland paying less then their western neighbours?

What about POLISH GAS RESERVES?

Like i stated before we wont see any of that for about 2-4 years. And this is also one of the reasons Russia wants Poland to sign a slave contract that will force Poland to import over 10bcm anually from Russia untill 2037!
convex 20 | 3,985    
24 Sep 2010  #19
Why ain't money just enough? don't think Germany is forced to sign these kinda unfavourable contracts...

Money is enough, that's the point. Poland wants to pay less of it for gas, Russia wants to get more money for it.

Exactly... and this is what i call using energy as a weapon.

Does Ferrari use cars as a weapon because they don't care if I buy one from them?

Could you enlighten me about Poland paying less then their western neighbours?

I can, Poland pays less for Russian gas coming through Yamal at the moment than Germany, even though Germany buys way more gas. Keep in mind that transit fees make up a huge portion of the price of gas.

And this is also one of the reasons Russia wants Poland to sign a slave contract that will force Poland to import over 10bcm anually from Russia untill 2037!

Not really, it's a long term contract that Poland requested. And it's actually a 15 year contract which will run out in 2026... Long term contract which means that the price is lower...that's kind of how business works. Russia is trading short term profit by way of higher prices for long term income.
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #20
I can, Poland pays less for Russian gas coming through Yamal at the moment than Germany, even though Germany buys way more gas.

Well it is Polands since it owns 52% of the Yamal pipeline in the polish section.

So why the hell shouldn't Poland take out a transit fee?

Beside the transit fee does Poland buy cheaper gas from Russia then Germany?
Bratwurst Boy 5 | 8,126    
24 Sep 2010  #21
So why the hell shouldn't Poland take out a transit fee?

Nobody denies Poland its transit fees...it's your right after all.
But making a stink if countries look forways to avoid such a transit fee and calling
it a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and accusing said countries of being meanies for trying
to avoid those quite heavy additionally costs is just crap!
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #22
It's a tricky question since Poland got aloot of bad history with Germany and Russia.

If you see it from the German perspective you see that they are just after the gas and don't really care if it goes through Poland or russia, the cheaper the better.

If you see it from the Russian perspective you see that they are after control which they also get by stationating their pipelines in a way that they can isolate certain countries without harming the other = Economic weapon.

If you see it from the Polish perspective you see that they are trying their best not to be to dependent on 1 countries gas deliveries but still this cannot be achieved over 1 night. It will take atleast 5 more years. And the Nord Stream line is seen as a threat just because Poland knows what Russia are capable of doing, just look at what happend to Belarus and Ukraine. And then the historical facts comes into place and this is something that is easy to ignore aslong you ain't Poland...
PlasticPole 7 | 2,666    
24 Sep 2010  #23
Sooner or later, Poland will probably start supply it's own gas, if there are any gas reserves around.
convex 20 | 3,985    
24 Sep 2010  #24
If you see it from the Russian perspective you see that they are after control

Gazprom is in business for one reason, to make as much money as possible, they sell a commodity that is in demand. Poland has had plenty of time to diversify, and hasn't done anything. The Baltic pipeline has been in the works for years and years...
Bratwurst Boy 5 | 8,126    
24 Sep 2010  #25
If you see it from the Russian perspective you see that they are after control

I disagree with that.
Russia NEEDS to sell their resources...it's their main income! Even during the coldest cold war times Russia never broke a treaty and delivered.

They need to sell it!
It isn't as much an economic weapon as you believe. Russia can NOT break treaties at will without
endangering their income at large.
delphiandomine 86 | 16,323    
24 Sep 2010  #26
Why ain't money just enough? don't think Germany is forced to sign these kinda unfavourable contracts...

What has Germany got to do with Poland agreeing a business deal with Russia? It has nothing to do with it. Russia has got every right to charge whatever price they want - and to negotiate whatever terms they want. It's called business.

Exactly... and this is what i call using energy as a weapon.

It's not a weapon. If Poland doesn't want to pay the costs, then she has to find an alternative fuel supply. It's rather simple - if you can't afford to pay your supplier, then you have to find an alternative or go without.

Could you enlighten me about Poland paying less then their western neighbours?

It's what people like you want to see. I still haven't figured out why you should get a special deal from Russia.

It's a tricky question since Poland got aloot of bad history with Germany and Russia.

What's tricky about it? Poland wants to buy gas, Russia wants to sell gas. Poland wants stability in supplies, Russia wants stability in revenues - everyone is happy. You know, with this deal, there's no risk of the gas being turned off in winter because of some politician deciding that he wants to stand up to Russia for domestic credibility. And that's good, right?

they are just after the gas and don't really care if it goes through Poland or russia, the cheaper the better

Well yes, that's called good business sense. Every business seeks to minimise costs.

they are after control

It's their resource to use as they see fit. Big companies use their control as weapons all the time - it's really nothing new in the world. The UK and Ireland used to use fish as a weapon against Germany to get what they wanted from the EU - really, it's their right to do so.

And then the historical facts comes into place and this is something that is easy to ignore aslong you ain't Poland...

Which is why Poland wants to sign a long term agreement on gas supplies so that a Belarus/Ukraine situation doesn't happen here. Is it really that difficult to understand?

Russia doesn't care about who buys the gas - all Russia cares about is getting a good price. Seriously, if you actually lived in Poland, you might actually understand this a bit better.
Bratwurst Boy 5 | 8,126    
24 Sep 2010  #27
And the Nord Stream line is seen as a threat just because Poland knows what Russia are capable of doing, just look at what happend to Belarus and Ukraine.

Well...Germany offered Poland a branch from Nord stream...but Poland (Kazcinsky I think) declined! He wanted rather the whole pipeline stopped. So now Poland has no branch!

Belarus and Ukraine didn't happen out of nothing...it was about the fee. Russia wanted market prices, Belarus and Ukraine wanted it cheaper.
OP David_18 69 | 987    
24 Sep 2010  #28
Russia can NOT break treaties at will without endangering their income at large.

Trying to talk this into a pole is like talking to a wall m8ey!!! ;)

I hope you're right though!

Gazprom is in business for one reason, to make as much money as possible

It's owned by the russian state so they do have political intension no matter what you say!
Bratwurst Boy 5 | 8,126    
24 Sep 2010  #29
I hope you're right though!

Russia don't want to lose the EU as their market....it's a give and take! ;)
delphiandomine 86 | 16,323    
24 Sep 2010  #30
It's owned by the russian state so they do have political intension no matter what you say!

Yes, the intention is to make as much money as possible for Russia. If that means that they use a scarce resource to prop up their country, so be it.

Zimbabwe is doing exactly the same thing with diamonds - are they using it as a weapon? Of course not.




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