Premier says no recession for Poland

Was watching TV Trwam (yes, alright!!) this evening and on the News programme Mr T apparently said that the pessimists were wrong and Poland is to escape recession and any slow-down in the economy and growth etc.

Isn't this in stark contrast to what various news reports were saying a few months ago, or even more recently than that?

What are people's thoughts about this and the prospect of Poland continuing to experience growth, assuming it has? (I base this on Wrocław, which seems very busy, lots of new cars around, shopping malls busy again etc, except the electrical shops). That said, some people tell me they can't get work, etc etc.

What's the real situation -- as Tusk says, or does it vary from city to city and region to region? If it's all going well, why are PiS ahead in the polls, or is that a regular mid-term thing which has no significance when it comes to ballot day?

Technically we did escape recession and growth is almost certain - not the one we would dream about ( 5-8%) but something around 2-3%.
New tranche of EU funds would be definitely increasing employment, growth and media attention - we could expect 2014 being a success story told by media at least showing us what has been built here and there. Szczecin has been visibly business busy in summertime after some hesitation visible in early spring on consumer part. If we don't have a dreadful autumn -weather wise - optimism will continue till Christmas. Ballot day is 2 years from now and Tusk may be loosing even more yet as long as PiS would stay below 50% we could expect easy SLD PSL PO coalition as - I hope - PiS wouldn't find anybody to partner with.

Thank you, Kowalski

"Economic slowdown coming to an end...bad news for pessimists"
thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/146164,Polish-economy-bad-news-for-pessimists
"Poland's growth to accelerate this year"
bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-03/polish-gdp-growth-will-accelerate-as-crisis-ends-tusk-says.html

Professor in Warsaw warning of recession in Poland (July 2013)
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/07/08/poland-recession
German bank predicts recession for Poland (Nov 2012) deltaeconomics.com/german-bank-predicts-recession-for-poland

Personally I've seen zero signs of recession. I no absolutely nobody here who isn't working.
I've a few mates that work in HR for some companies and they're constantly recruiting.

Albeit it might be bad in the countryside, but hasn't it always been bad in the countryside?
Something I don't understand about the Polish countryside though. So much land is fallow, it's just empty grassland, can anyone explain to me why this land isn't be used productively? OK, I realise most small farmers cannot afford to buy land, but if it's government land why can't they rent it to farmers for a low fee to stimulate business?

Thank you, Smurf

I am surprised that this thread has had such very little interest -- perhaps Poland doing well is no surprise to most, or others think it is too early to say that no recession or slump is likely.

Suppose coz the average unemployed Pole may not speak English and let's not forget this forum is way, way, way down the list of the most popular forums in Poland.

I dunno man, I've starting my 5th year here now and ever since I arrived here I've been hearing 'oh, the recession is coming..... people are losing job...blah, yawn', etc.

But all I've seen is an overall improvement in infrastructure, new apartment complexes and hotels mushrooming everywhere and loads of newer cars on the roads.

For me, the low rate of Poland's growth saved it from a recession that was felt in other countries, if a 4% growth falls to 3% it's hardly noticeable and Poland's growth has been roughly the same for the past 4 years anyway. Also, it has to do on what Poland produces. From what I know it's mostly food and since everyone needs to eat it's exports have been in line year on year. As people earn more and more services become available we may see a change, but so far it looks like a conservative approach to the handling of the economy has been the right choice.

Now, with IBM, Google et all coming this may change. And with the changing tax laws regarding communications companies (i.e where every EU wide communications company has to pay tax in each different country and not just where they are based) coming into play, hopefully that money will be used properly to further bolster the infrastructure and services............ unless PiS get in and p!ss it all away :(

Nice and easy to grasp analysis, thanks.

The reason so much is fallow is that almost 80% e.u. funding is paid for simply growing nothing, with about the other 20% for growing a basic crop.

As for escaping recession, well what I believe he said was that he PREDICTS 3% growth next year. I guess it all depends on how much you believe in his predictions.

As for the general view, in the South East I would say the down turn is very noticeable. The South East is not generally considered a PO strong hold however, so I guess there is less EU funding here for rose coloured glasses.

same can be said about Ukraine or even Belarus, but it doesn't mean a sh!t.

When it comes to Poland its too early to say anything conclusive, however its never too early to start your electoral campaign as far as Donek is concerned ;)

There are plenty of statistics available which are probably more reliable than pub arguments about mercs and shopping malls. Private consumption increased only 0.1 percent last year and the retail growth figures show that they are not spending money at shopping malls - only reailers growing are discounters.

Disposable income has stagnated in last 2 years after a few years of very high growth, unemployment is up a few ticks and youth unemployment acually getting quite worrying. Result is gdp between 1 and zero growth most of this year. I think we will see a slight upturn but less than doneks 3 percent.

More interesting summaries which I can easily grasp, thanks TU5K and cms

Most Poles don't believe governement propaganda and they are right. Like said above, unemployment is up and people continue to leave Poland for bread, those at home live on credit, houses and flats don't sell (I know several office buildings in Warsaw that are half empty), the population is decreasing (this morning I read an article according to which the Polish population would be 30 million in 2060) as people have no money to raise families so they don't have kids, most people shop at discounts and shops selling used clothes from (generally) England are to be found every few meters in every Polish town.

Sure a minority of Poles do well but the majority are in a very bad shape and they continue leaving the country. In order to be aware of it, one needs to get out of the expat and nouveau riches circles and to stop believing government propaganda.

Still pushing that tired old line, are we?


Not by any significant amount, and you're not counting the people who are unemployed so that they get their healthcare paid - while working full time.


I don't live on credit - apart from my mortgage, I don't have any credit. Not an uncommon situation - I know the financial circumstances of my neighbours, and most of them don't even have a mortgage or a very low one. Poland has quite low levels of personal debt, don't you know?


It might have escaped your attention that at least part of this was due to the regulations that the Government brought in. As for office buildings, if they're half empty, why is Warsaw being seen as screaming out for quality office accommodation?


Same in much of Europe.


It's not to do with money, but modern lifestyles. Poland has a very educated society - and educated people don't tend to breed.


Have you seen Germany? It's the same story there. Austria isn't much better. What's your point?

(as for 'most people' - I don't think so. Do you need to be reminded how well Auchan is doing?)


Hardly. Those shops are actually doing worse and worse as time goes on.


No, people need to stop listening to arrogant foreigners who think that everyone else is poor because it makes them feel better about themselves and the fact that they have to trawl across cities to earn 50zl for a private language lesson.

Not so on my estate -- we're wall to wall with kids here, and the noise from the children is very much in evidence, quite apart from the problem neighbour who lives above me and is nocturnal and also has a kid who leaps around like a monkey at all hours. This estate has kids all over. Bicycles, skateboards, football, gangs of young kids sitting on railings, it's like a young families' estate but isn't supposed to be as it's private flats which are 500K each. I laugh when I hear this childless couples or shortage of kids stuff in the media, we're overrun with kids here, they're everywhere. And women with loads of buggies and pushchairs almost every time I use the bus. And always sitting near me and next to me when I fly. If this is a low birthrate, then I'm amazed.


And the price of the used clothes is actually more expensive than most British secondhand clothes shops which are usually a charity. I would put the price of used clothes in Poland on the days when they aren't doing the discounting, as above that charged by charity shops in St Johns Wood High Street (upmarket London) and on a good discount day the same price or even a bit more as a well known heart charity's secondhand clothes (not terribly cheap but in better condition than the clothes that you typically find here in Wroc in some secondhand clothes shops).

It's because those shops cater to the stupid. And for people like me, who need cheap material...

I kid you not, I picked up brand new, smart trousers at Tesco (F+F) for 15zl in my size a few weeks ago. They were of course reduced as end-of-line. But I'd be paying at least that for used ones at the secondhand shops where they weigh the clothes, so I don't buy much from them any more except interesting tee-shirts or designer gear which I very occasionally manage to snaffle at their rock bottom or penultimate rock bottom price (Old but very passable Armani jeans for approx. 10zl being my best buy, a total bit of beginner's luck that never repeated itself).

I know these secondhand shops have 80% off days or 10zl/kg days, but my size is never available by that time.

//blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/09/03/polands-tusk-no-stagnation -no-recession/

Poland came no where near recession, growth slowed to .5% In one quarter. And should finish at 1.5% For the year

" The reason so much is fallow is that almost 80% e.u. funding is paid for simply growing nothing, with about the other 20% for growing a basic crop. "

Yet poland not only fed itself but exported 10billion euro's of surpluse foodstuff's. for example Poland is the 3rd largest producer in the world after China and USA.

"producer of Apples"

Several years back I popped into one because it had some English language books in the window and spotted a very expensive suit in perfect condition for 20zl!. I used it for a couple of years and gave it to Oxfam, from where it may well end up in Poland again.


Yes - that's far from recession. Poland also exports a lot of processed food. The key is that the zloty mustn't be too strong.

I think I bought it ! :D

One Irish person emigrates every six minutes
freerepublic.com/focus/news/3060526/posts
maybe in a year or two people will be saying that Ireland is avoiding recession as well.
2-3 million have emigrated from Poland since 2004 and 14% unemployment today. BUT!! Poland is avoiding recession.
I think Ireland is on the right track. The Irish recession will be over soon.

To InWroclaw: "lol", as to declining population, I'm talking about WHOLE Poland and not your estate;). Get out of your microcosme and look at the world! Nobody can deny that Polish population is declining from year to year: one of the lowest birth rate in the world (lowest in UE?) because people don't have kids (no steady jobs and low salaries, small apartments (how the hell can they raise families when living in 37 sqm2 or sharing with older generations?), no infrastructures, no help to families) and also because a lot of people continue moving abroad for break. I am dealing right now with charity and believe me the picture is not too bright. Tusk and those in PF limited to their English teaching to new rich and to their "estates" should leave their ivory tower and look at the world. Most Poles don't believe government propaganda contrary to a lot in PF.

No, it is not a recession since it is a permanent situation of poverty.

PS: I meant for ... breaD ;)

@Milky: Unfortunately you are right. Recession or not recession, when so many people are unemployed, and/or with unsteady jobs paid peanuts, cannot start families because of no money and no security, when millions have to go abroad for bread, sorry, the country is rather in a deep sh.... t and that's the way it is in Poland. Of course the government and their media shall say "everything is alright" but of course they are completely disconnected from reality, just like a lot of people in PF who often don't even live in Poland.

It's not the world, it's Poland.

But anyway, even taking that into account, having travelled by train around Poland a fair bit now, my trains are always full of screaming little kids. And Wrocław is full of kids and young people

Like I said before, I can't really understand how this is a falling birth rate unless they mean by 0.1% or something.

I have never seen so many little kids in my life as I do here in Wrocław, they are everywhere. Perhaps people have kids when they get good jobs and perhaps they find good jobs in cities and that's why there are so many kids here. But I suspect the number of kids here is the same (or perhaps even more, just guessing of course) than many other European cities, and so I cannot see why there is concern about the birth rate. What might cause a problem is if too many people leave rural areas and fewer available to do the agricultural work -- same problem happened in the UK.

It reminds me of what King Louis XVI wrote in his diary in the evening of July 14, 1789. The king wrote "nothing happened" that day whereas the Bastille prison had been taken by the revolutionary forces. A lot of people in PF are exactly like Louis XVI was, because everything is ok in their petty life and in their petty estate, the whole world is doing alright. I deal with charity and often go to poor neighborhoods (this morning I will) in Warsaw and travel to deep Poland and I can assure you that people there would laugh at your comments. Very few Poles are doing alright and the majority is either full of debts or in big sh... or both.

I'm genuinely sorry to read things might not be going so well for yourself or people you know. However, I'm just saying what I see. Not only is my (lousy, noisy) estate full of quite new and new cars including big 4x4s, but when I stand at the bus stop I can't help but notice the new cars coming past. Quite a lot of them, at random times. Not at all unusual to see a small Porsche or Cayenne come past, plus loads of new Audis and whatever else. Some people are doing very well or have borrowed heavily to finance these toys.

Youth unemployment is a structural European problem (with the exception of Germany and Austria). Poland has the same youth unemployment as Sweden (~25%).

Probably life isn't always so easy for people in Poland if they have no education, in rural areas even less. But I can see the work availible in the fields of IT, Finance and Accounting in the international companies located in Krakow (and Wroclaw and Warsaw), there's no end to the job positions that come out on a daily basis. But for sure stats aren't lying, your avarage pole doesn't have a lot of disposable income, wages are low across the board.

But my, albeit short, experience about people leaving Poland (at least for the UK) is that the people who have a hard time finding work in Poland move to the UK. People with education seem more willing to stay, probably because they can find work. Feel free to correct me, but the majority of Poles now living in the UK doesn't hold a University degree?

Young uneducated Swedes who can't find work move to Norway (service jobs, bars, restaurants and peeling bananas). Sounds familiar?

Polish economy is a whole I won't get in to, don't have enough knowledge about it.

soon we will here that tusk said that earth is flat... will that change anything?
Poland under zus and ofe, rising debt and unemplotlyment huuuuge corruption and a demographical crisis is done. fifty more years and russians will own us again.. "to help us prosper"

inwroclaw go and look at stats, we need 700k people born everyyear to help us out in futyre, we have around 300k born annually figure it urself bro!

I'm not disputing the stats, I'm just saying -- Wrocław is full of brats sorry I mean children, almost everywhere. I accept the stats say something different about Poland as a whole, I also accept things in Wrocław may not be true of the rest of the country. But, when I travel by train, it's very rare for my compartment to not have at least 1 or 2 little kids with its parents or grandparents. From these experiences, it doesn't seem to be the case that the birthrate is down, although yes the stats are at odds with my perception.

I'll end my birthrate posts here, because we are pretty much taking it off-topic and the moderator will have cause to chop the thread up. Thanks for those comments, though :o)

InWroclaw from your thread about the noise I am guessing you live on an estate of small apartments built after 1989. Of course that will have a lot of kids - they are starter homes. Whats more there is significant migration since 2000 from market towns to the bigger towns - if you were in Swidnica, Walbrzych or Namyslow you would certainly notice an ageing population and less kids around.

The overall birth trend is not great but not as drastic as some posters are saying. In other countries like Lithuania and Moldovia depopulation and the loss of breeding age workers is a real catastrophe

I note in some other towns or cities, people seem to be nearer my age, or far fewer kids anyway. EG Zielona Gora seemed to have fewer kids.

My estate has various apartments -- smallish studios and also typically from 60m2 to 100m2 apartments, some of which are duplex.

"For He spoke, and it was done; He commanded, and it stood fast."