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Poland's post-election political scene


Ironside 50 | 10,939
15 Jan 2016 #571
Good news, as in more propaganda and less facts?

Really delph are you going to play this game now? There is not facts but only propaganda. Do you still want to preened that anti-Pis campaign in media has anything to do with facts? Find yourself somebody stupider.
Harry
15 Jan 2016 #572
Since the election, the WIG20 has fallen from around 2100 at the time of the election to a mere 1743 today.

Is that due the sabotage of capitalist wreckers and running dog EU imperialists? Or is it due to banksters, foreign retail chains and post-nomenklatura types (sorry, I mean BANKSTERS, FOREIGN RETAIL CHAINS AND POST-NOMENKLATURA TYPES, don't I) and frustrated liberal-leftist trough-defending losers and pro-foreign-interest types (oops, I mean FRUSTRATED LIBERAL-LEFTIST TROUGH-DEFENDING LOSERS AND PRO-FOREIGN-INTEREST TYPES, sorry about that) fleeing in the face of A PRO-POLISH GOVERNMENT THAT HERALDS THE DAWN OF THE GLORIOUS FOURTH REICH!!!

Er, sorry, I mean the 'dawn of the glorious fourth republic', don't I?

The most shocking one is the fall against the Czech Koruna. On the 30th April, it was standing at 1PLN = 6.89CZK.

I really should have bought more Koruna, given that I'm going there at least four times this year.
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
15 Jan 2016 #573
Merged: Latest polls.

PiS - 39%
PO 2.0 - 22%
PO - 13%
Kukiz - 9%

Source:
wiadomosci.wp.pl/kat,1342,title,Najnowszy-sondaz-CBOS-39-proc-PiS-22-proc-Nowoczesna-13-proc-PO-9-proc-Kukiz15,wid,18105169,wiadomosc.html
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jan 2016 #574
Notice how Greggy didn't post this one :

ewybory.eu/sondaz-millward-brown-dla-faktow-tvn-i-tvn24-14-01-2016/

PiS - 30%
Nowoczesna - 27%
PO - 14%
Kukiz - 9%
SLD - 5%

Which clearly shows that the middle ground has gone firmly away from PiS.

Anyway, that's the not the real news.

Furthermore, exchange rates today :

I posted this at 15:24. Now...

1 EUR = 4.48PLN
1 USD = 4.09PLN
1 CHF = 4.10CHF

--

1 PLN = 6.03CZK
1 PLN = 70.41HF

The złoty is in freefall, and the biggest news of the day -

Poland's new government has been given a stern warning by rating agency Standard & Poor's, which cut the country's rating and warned of a further cut.

The ratings agency on Friday downgraded Poland's foreign credit rating by a notch to BBB+ as it warns over what it said are recent moves that "weaken the independence and effectiveness of key institutions." It also put the country on negative watch, a move that suggests further downgrades could be possible...

...The change in the rating outlook to negative reflects our view that there is potential for further erosion of the independence, credibility, and effectiveness of key institutions, especially the National Bank of Poland (NBP).

In other words, financial institutions think that Poland is in trouble. Psychologically, we've broken the 4PLN/1USD barrier by a long way, and only the weekend will save the złoty from breaking the 4.50 barrier against the Euro.
InPolska 11 | 1,821
15 Jan 2016 #575
I was at PKO this am and saw 1 euro sold .... 4.52 ZL ;) and it could be only the beginning...
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jan 2016 #576
and it could be only the beginning...

It is. The interbank rate is now 4.49, and the złoty has lost nearly 10gr against the Euro in the space of 24 hours.

Let's just wait for the PiS supporters to come with their usual abuse, because you know, they all live abroad and earn in foreign currencies, so why should they worry about the fact that their yearly holiday is now even cheaper?

(mods, could you add this link to my post above? I forgot to attribute it to - ft.com/fastft/2016/01/15/poland-downgraded-by-sp-zloty-tumbles] - thanks)

There's also a decision coming from Fitch later today, and a second negative opinion will send the złoty crashing further down. It's the second worst performing currency this year in Europe after the Russian ruble, which says a lot about how bad this government really is.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
15 Jan 2016 #577
PiS supporters all live abroad

More Delphinesque BS and pushing absurdity over the edge. More than 99% of all PiS supporters live in Poland!
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
15 Jan 2016 #578
The Iceks will try to destroy us to put their own back in control, that was expected.
kpc21 1 | 763
15 Jan 2016 #579
Before the parliamentary elections, the exchange rate was about 4,20 PLN/EUR. Shortly after the victory of PiS - it jumped to 4,30. With the time reaching even something like 4,40. Now it jumped to almost 4,50...

While in April, for a short time, it was even something like 4,00 PLN. And around 4,20 was a typical exchange rate all the time.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jan 2016 #580
Before the parliamentary elections, the exchange rate was about 4,20 PLN/EUR.

If the news from Fitch is bad, the złoty is going to take a nosedive on Monday morning.

Commerzbank AG also now rate Poland's bonds as "sell", which shows that markets are definitely reacting very badly to the government.

Still no sign of the 500zł per child...where is it, Polonius? We were promised it within the first 100 days!
polishinvestor 1 | 362
15 Jan 2016 #581
Doesnt matter what the other 2 agencies as Polish bonds will get clobbered next week. It was sort of known earlier in the week but until confirmed bonds were ok given global stockmarkets were off. Long hungarian short polish is probably a good idea for the year as Hungary has already does it PIS with Orban while Poland is yet to enjoy the "fruits" of the new government ;)
dolnoslask
15 Jan 2016 #582
that's great news delph, we will be importing and buying fewer foreign goods, our exports will be more attractive to foreign buyers, even our coal mining industry will get a boost when the cheap imports are no longer attractive. but it miight be hard for foreign workers here expecting to go home with some money in their pockets.

well I am no financier, it maybe time for vestor man to step in and give us his opinion.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jan 2016 #583
that's great news delph, we will be importing and buying fewer foreign goods

It will also be very hard for Poles that want (and desire) imported things. Wages aren't going to go up because the złoty is weak, but things already cost nearly 10% more to import than they did earlier in 2015. That means that living standards have been cut dramatically already, and there's nothing in the plans of PiS that suggest that the złoty can strengthen back to even 4.1.
dolnoslask
15 Jan 2016 #584
I don't think wages will go up, we will just have to put up with harder times , nothing new there , interestingly the oil prices have gone crazy with big losses.

The dow jones is down 3 percent today, due to the oil crisis (lol) I think that other nations with their high borrowing to gdp ratios have more to worry about, me I am going to buy more popcorn and watch the bankers jump out of the windows, oh and buy less vip lager so that i can afford to eat.
polishinvestor 1 | 362
15 Jan 2016 #585
The downside of the ratings cut is that the government bonds will go down and that means the yield they pay investors on money lent to them goes up. PIS is wanting to spend money left right and centre and has already said the budget will be squeezed. Todays news will see more money go from the budget to pay the higher yields on the bonds. About 40% of government bonds are foreign owned so there is likely to be a big move next week as not everyone will have acted on the rumours.

A weaker zloty makes good news for exporters bad for importers thats clear, but it will mean no more falls in price of petrol as thats price in dollars and when oil rebounds then petrol prices will rise faster if zloty stays where it is or weakens further.

But the good news is the EU donations Poland gets are sent in euros so they will be worth more!
dolnoslask
15 Jan 2016 #586
I said it before vestor man is cleaver well spotted nice to know.
Librarius - | 91
15 Jan 2016 #587
But the good news is the EU donations Poland gets are sent in euros so they will be worth more!

Are you serious? What donations? Can you write it in Polish? I do not belive that you are Polish!

What you've written is too stupid for you to be Polish.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
15 Jan 2016 #588
didn't post this one

SO what does this one mean, since you're the know-all poll interpreter?
PiS - 39%
Petru - 22%
PO - 13%
Kukiz - 9%

Besides, CBOS is Poland's biggest and most reliable pollster, The one you cited was from tabloid Fakty.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
15 Jan 2016 #589
SO what does this one mean, since you're the know-all poll interpreter?

Not much. You need to look at the long term trends rather than individual polls.

ewybory.eu/sondaze/

We'll see what happens when PiS fail to keep their electoral promises while the economy runs into a crisis.
Librarius - | 91
15 Jan 2016 #590
Economy artificially run into a crisis is an instrument of enslavement in the hands of a few - a 'virtual senate' of lenders and investors. You can't cure the enjoyment of servitude by those fearing the crisis.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,446
17 Jan 2016 #591
an instrument of enslavement

If that is true, then Heil Petru is the chief enslaver! He is surely a man to watch and beware of! This power-mad politician who self-proclaimed himself "the leader iof the opposition" has apparently become intoxicated by the shouting, chanting, placard-waving rabble KOD have dragged into the streets and gloatingly said: "Poland is now on her knees before the EU, on her knees before S&P and the złoty is also on its knees..."

He had a right to gloat and feel satsifaction because he was a major catalyst of those anti-Polish developments.
One TV commentator noted about the rating drop that S&P had ignored the TK controversy, the police law, public-media law and other PiS measures but struck after the bank tax and franc-debt issues emerged. It's the banks that rule!
Harry
17 Jan 2016 #592
he was a major catalyst of those anti-Polish developments.

Why don't you give credit to the unelected dictator, your Dear Leader Chairman Kaczynski? His stupidity is what's put Poland on her knees, as can be seen by anybody who isn't PISed up.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
17 Jan 2016 #593
Why don't you give credit to the unelected dictator, your Dear Leader Chairman Kaczynski?

Did you see how everyone turned up at some luxury hotel outside of Warsaw to watch him give a speech, then barely anyone showed up the next day for Szydło's speech while Jarosław himself didn't bother?

Says it all. The man has clear delusions of being Piłsudski.
Harry
17 Jan 2016 #594
The man has clear delusions of being Piłsudski.

A person would need to be seriously PISed up in order to think that there is anything even vaguely Pilsudski-esque about the poisonous dwarf known to all as the Dear Leader Chairman Kaczynski.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
17 Jan 2016 #595
And now we see the great return of Adam Hoffman.

Does anyone really genuinely believe that PiS are anything other than specialists in TKM?
mafketis 24 | 9,384
17 Jan 2016 #596
Does anyone really genuinely believe that PiS are anything other than specialists in TKM?

Patronage has always been the rule in Poland (and PO indulged as much as anyone) but PiS is just so blatantly obvious about it:
In the PiSiverse

skills + experience = nothing

loyalty - scruples = everything
pweeg3
17 Jan 2016 #597
Patronage has always been the rule in Poland (and PO indulged as much as anyone)

Then there is no real reason to complain about is there? Best to avoid blatantly countries like that
mafketis 24 | 9,384
17 Jan 2016 #598
Then there is no real reason to complain about is there?

You can try to minimize it while realizing that doing away with it entirely takes generations or you can glory in it and exploit it for all it's worth (as PiS is doing).

Quite a difference in practice. And to be clear I mean that patronage always exists everywhere but can be ameliorated by meritocratic (if that's a word) considerations or not. In terms of patronage PiS is like travelling back into the early 90s whereas PO was trying (slowly and not always effectively) to keep up with the present and head toward the future.
InPolska 11 | 1,821
17 Jan 2016 #599
No, weak ZL is no good news for Poland since Poland imports a lot (check in any store for imported goods) and pays for said imports in dollars or in euros. Since importing things will cost more, it'll mean higher prices for customers in Poland just it is the situation now in Russia (for instance) as a result of the collapse of the rubble. Never good news when a currency collapses.
pweeg3
17 Jan 2016 #600
Unlike Russia, Poland exports food. So farmers will be happier.

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