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Poland's political crisis deepens


Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #61
Friend, I don't know if you know much about forestry, but think about it. The trees are 40 m tall. They grow in stands mixed with other trees. They are extracted mechanically - how else can you handle a 40 m tree, do you think? And how do you think that you can get the logging vehicles to the actual tree if it is surrounded by other trees? Even if you cut the tree by hand, with a chainsaw, when it falls it gets caught up on the other trees becasue there is not a 40 m clear radius around it - unless you make one by removing the the other trees.

Have a look at the picture in this article, of a spruce cut in Bialowieza in April 2016 (before it was stopped by the EU): britishbirds.co.uk/article/bialowieza-forest-new-threat/

Notice the huge empty area around it, where everything elese has been cut. Now look behind it, at the standing forest - look how close the trees are standing together. Where do you think the trees from around the cut spruce have gone? They have been cut, to reach the spruce. Not just cut, but also removed. Every tree.

In fact, the logigng they started, before being stopped, was to the south of the forest and involved clear cutting of 1 ha blocks separated by a 50 m buffer. That is how forestry works. It's not two men, a saw and a horse. It's done with large machinery on wheels.
Crow 137 | 7,632
18 Dec 2016  #62
Poland's political crisis deepens

Unfortunately, exactly, as I expected.
After2020
18 Dec 2016  #63
Poland's right-wing ruling party positioned itself as being in the vanguard of an anti-elitist and anti-liberal zeitgeist sweeping through the West, those on the streets protesting are nothing more than Brussels puppets...
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #64
>of an anti-elitist and anti-liberal zeitgeist

Somebody can't be a liberal Pole? All Poles must be illiberal?

Quite how Kaczynski doesn't qualify as one of the 'elite' amazes me. He holds no government office but is the controller of policy. He is a lawyer. Has been a politician for 40 years. That sounds quite elitist to me. His political career parallels that of Donald Tusk quite closely. I've never seen any pictures of Kaczynski going to work in a coal mine or a building site with the 'real people'. He's a career politician.
After2020
18 Dec 2016  #65
The Kaczynski brothers are Polish patriots to the core, Tusk is a Kashubian europhile in his every fibre.This is how they differ.
mafketis 20 | 7,253
18 Dec 2016  #66
Poland's right-wing ruling party positioned itself as being in the vanguard of an anti-elitist and anti-liberal zeitgeist sweeping through the West

Except that it isn't. There's not enough migration to Poland to spur the kind of movements that have gained traction in western countries (and Hungary, not a goal of migration but disrupted by it nonetheless).

And the EU isn't unpopular enough in Poland for it to gain traction that way either.

PiS represents a return to PRL ways and mostly appeals to those who did not benefit from the end of the PRL (and low information voters who are bought off by

nothing more than Brussels puppets...

So "rule of law" is now a Brussels scheme? How very PRLish.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #67
>The Kaczynski brothers are Polish patriots to the core, Tusk is a Kashubian europhile in his every fibre

Now you show your true face.

You might have a different opinion of 'patriot' from somebody else. There is no single definition. Is Walesa a Polish patriot?

Considering that Brussels has paid for Poland to drag itself from the communist gutter, don't you think it is patriotic of Polish to be europhile, seeing as that is where the money and security comes from? Or would you rather still be living in a 1989-era Poland with the standard of Belarus, and under Russian influence? Poland makes very little that the world wants to buy, has too many borders to defend on its own, but is in a strategic location that many powers want to control. Unless you want your kids to learn Russian in school again, you had better start being a europhile.
Ironside 48 | 9,750
18 Dec 2016  #68
You might have a different opinion of 'patriot' from somebody else. There is no single definition. Is Walesa a Polish patriot?

Both him and Tusk are traitors. Well, maybe Walesa is just a stupid peasant.

Considering that Brussels has paid for Polan

Has done nothing for Poland. Spare us your primitive slogans about that issue. The rest of your utter drivel is just too dumb to be taken seriously. You must be delph's kin.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #69
>Has done nothing for Poland.

Ha ha, this is hilarious, which world are you living in?! Poland has received 100 BILLION EUROS from the EU! That's about 400. It is due to receive 100 billion more until 2020. That's more than double the entire Polish reserve of foreign exchange and gold. Some 'nothing'. Poland is the biggest recipient of EU funds by far:

msp.gov.pl/en/polish-economy/economic-news/4015,dok.html

You're happy to take all of the benefits but want none of the responsibility. Other partner countries are watching and noticing. And when the EU money dries up then you will notice too. Poland has little to sell on the world stage.
After2020
18 Dec 2016  #70
Obo, you really need to educate yourself... Firstly Poland was never communist, it had a soviet controlled government. your first bit of knowledge. Second the money which Brussels divvies out is actually tax payers money from UK, Germany,France et al, so thank you very much for the new roads and infrastructure, your lorries will not get damaged when you deliver your exports here. If you have a problem with your taxes being spent on Polish roads, have a word with Brussels... As for the security Poland is a member of Nato old boy... Polish soldiers have been active in many of the conflicts in ME/Asia and a bloody good job those soldiers have done as well, protecting your democracy and liberty. Now as for your suggestion that Poland has too many borders, Poland is not in any conflict with and country which it borders,quite the opposite old bean. The British and Americans are placing troops in Poland and next year and the missile defence shield will be placed on Polish territory, the current government is very pro America.As an add on old bean, Poland is part of the small group of countries which have an annual send on milatary infrastructure in agreement with NATO. Now I don't know if you have been dumped by a Polish girl or boy, but you sure need to stop with the diatribe...
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #71
>Firstly Poland was never communist

It was a puppet state under communist rule, with an imposed communist system. Unless you think it was somehow 'free'?

>Second the money which Brussels divvies out is actually tax payers money

Yes, I know, 200 Billion of it. Poland gets about 3x more than it puts in. So it is a masisve beneficiary of EU money. So we agree. Don't have a problem with it at all, unless Poland stops fulfilling its half of the EU membership contract.

>As for the security Poland is a member of Nato old boy

NATO is only as strong as the agreement, which has just been undermined by Trump (saying he might not come to the defence of a NATO country). Having a pact is no guarantee of defence, as Poland knows from WW2. The basic bottom line, as Trump has been the first to say, is that citizens of countries like the USA and UK (the biggest defence contributors to NATO) will be simply unwilling to go to war with Russia and risk nuclear attack for the sake of Poland - especially a Poland that increasingly diverges from what USA and UK both consider to the democratic norms. Within the EU, do you think the anti-German anti-EU stance of PiS is more or less likely to persuade Germany to defend Polish borders from an attack like in Ukraine?

>Now as for your suggestion that Poland has too many borders, Poland is not in any conflict with and country which it borders,quite the opposite old bean

Oh behave! So Poland has good relations with Russia, does it? How come Kaczynski hasn't got his plane back then? How come there is a cold war border developing at Kaliningrad, where the missiles have just been increased? How come Poland want's a permanant NATO base? How come Poland is establishing a militia to counter hybrid war with Russia? Poland is more vulnerable now than it has been since 1989. If it becomes more isolated it will be even more vulnerable, as the EU and NATO might not be strong enough to defend it. Poland cannot defend herself against Russia, and, to be frank, nobody will risk nuclear war on behalf of Poland - nuclear nations like France, USA and UK will not attack Russia if Poland is invaded in a hybrid war.

>The British and Americans are placing troops in Poland and next year and the missile defence shield will be placed on Polish territory, the current government is very pro America.

The British and Americans are becoming isolationist. Maybe you missed recent elections? The missile shield is to defend themselves, not defend Poland! If Russia decides to invade to remove the shield, it will create a new iron curtain, with Poland behind it.

Not sure why you think it's a diatribe, it's an analysis. I am genuinely worried for the future of Poland on its current trajectory. No matter how much PiS spends on defence, and no matter how much karate they teach the women, just look at the last 5 years and see what happened when Russia annexes parts of other countries. Nothing. If PiS alienates all its allies in the EU it will weaken its own defence. The simple fact is that the British and Americans simply don't care very much about Poland - they don't have to, they have their own strong defensive capabilities. Poland needs their defences much more than they need Poland's trade or military. Poland has only ever been a small force in UN missions, and will always be vulnerable. Its best chance of future independence is as part of a strong alliance with powerful allies. At the moment its best chance of that is Germany and France, because the UK and USA simple don't need to care as much.
Ironside 48 | 9,750
18 Dec 2016  #72
Ha ha, this is hilarious, which world are you living in?! Poland has received 100 BILLION EUROS from the EU!

So what? That is a country you're talking about not some dude. Also you are talking as if Poland got that money for free. You should well know that is not the case. Furthermore sometimes money and hand outs are doing more harm than good.

Poland is the biggest recipient of EU funds by far:

Get that slogan out of the way. Biggest in total not biggest per head! So stuff it!

You're happy to take all of the benefits but want none of the responsibility.

Who is happy? I'm not as well as 20% of Poles that voted against joining the EU. Responsibility? Taking in riddles? comes with power so far Poland has no power in the EU. Is that an euphemism? What you really want to say is that Poland don't walk the line? You should have used a different world - obedience!

I don't think that Poland should obey powers in the EU because of some hand outs?. Are you implying that Poland is some kind of ***** that sold herself for money into a German *****house?

I don't think so!

Other partner countries are watching and noticing.

They can jump the lake for all I care! They are not doing Poland any favours! Never were!
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #73
>They are not doing Poland any favours! Never were!

Shame. Poland will need some favours when the Russian 'green men' come knocking.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #75
You mean "history" ;)

*hysteria.
Ironside 48 | 9,750
18 Dec 2016  #76
Shame. Poland will need some favours when the Russian 'green men' come knocking.

What favours? Either USA *(NATO) will react or not. The EU has nothing to do with it. Also if that would be only "Green men" they will soon become "Rotten Corpses" Poland is not Ukraine.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #77
If the EU devleops then it will have a lot to do with it. Also the defence of one EU country by another (defending the Union).

You seriously think that Poland can successfully counter a Russian incursion? Keep dreaming. The civil defence force is not yet fully established, the military is still small and developing, and there is a very long and difficult border to defend against a massively superior force. The only difference between Poland and Ukraine is that it takes a day longer to get there for the Little Green Men.

Anyway, if it's so hysterical, why is the Polish govt preparing for hybrid war?
peterweg 36 | 2,316
18 Dec 2016  #78
The EU has nothing to do with it.

Not true, the EU has a mutual defense pact, military and finacial assistance.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #79
Russia's military is 35 times larger than Poland's.
gumishu 11 | 5,012
18 Dec 2016  #80
Little Green Men.

have you seen Little Green Men in Western Ukraine or Kiev - if not why?
why are there no Little Green Men even in Latvia and Estonia who have big Russian minorities?

Russia's military is 35 times larger than Poland's.

if Russian wanted to invade Poland it would do it long ago - why wait?
Ironside 48 | 9,750
18 Dec 2016  #81
If the EU devleops then it will have a lot to do with it.

That is big "IF"! When and if that will happen we can talk about it then. Right now that is not the case.

You seriously think that Poland can successfully counter a Russian incursion?

If that will only amount to so called 'green men' - there is no doubt about it.

Not true, the EU has a mutual defence pact, military and financial assistance.

Not really. That is more like a project for the future that some politicians in the EU play at. Nobody serious take that seriously.

Russia's military is 35 times larger than Poland's.

Are you Russian? What does it matter? Their economy sucks even more than Poland's economy. The only difference is that have vast ores and natural resources. Peddling of which allows them to function at all.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #82
>have you seen Little Green Men in Western Ukraine or Kiev - if not why?

No, I haven't. Did you see any in eastern Ukraine and Crimea 3 years ago? "If not, why?"

Things can change very rapidly.

>if Russian wanted to invade Poland it would do it long ago - why wait?

Why did Hitler and Stalin wait 6 years until 1939? Why did Russia wait 4 years before entering the Syrian conflict? Why did it wait 15 years before annexing parts of Ukraine? Putin's Russia is expansionist, and they exploit power vacuums. A power vacuum could easily develop over Poland as Trump turns the USA isolationist, the UK reduces its military (i.e. NATO force) and the EU shrinks and is weakened, leaving Poland without an umbrella. Poland increasingly isolates itself from the big EU powers (France/Spain) and aligns itself with minnows like Hungary.

What do you think would happen if Russia decided to occupy Kiev with a puppet regime and Little Green Men? Who would stop it? USA? UK? Germany? Think hard, can you imagine any of them going to war with Russia over Ukraine, sending in troops of free Kiev? No, exactly. But then Russia is at two borders with Poland, at Ukraine and Kaliningrad, and the very clever Putin might just decide that he can try the same trick again. Meanwhile, the USA is busy with Trump and China, the UK is busy with Brexit, both have just had 20 years of war and the public are sick of it, and Poland has isolated itself from the EU, which is anyway too weak without the UK and USA to fight Russia.

A bedtime story, I know. But did anyone see the Ukraine actions coming 3 years ago? Did anyone see Russia entering Syria? Remember, Russians shot down a passenger jet in Ukraine killing hundreds of Dutch and Brits civilians. And the UK and EU did nothing. If they wont avenge their own murdewred citizens, do you really think the western public has an appetite to fight and die for Poland? Dream on.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #83
>Their economy sucks even more than Poland's economy. The only difference is that have vast ores and natural resources. Peddling of which allows them to function at all.

Well, they managed to find the cash and enthusiasm for east Ukraine, Crimea and Syria. All in the past couple of years. Poland would be a very big prize for Russian prestige at home.
gumishu 11 | 5,012
18 Dec 2016  #84
Why did Hitler and Stalin wait 6 years until 1939

Hitler and Stalin were idealogical enemies until Ribbentrop-Molotov pact -

any more questions?

And the UK and EU did nothing. If they wont avenge their own murdewred citizens, do you really think the western public has an appetite to fight and die for Poland? Dream o

then why is not Putin annexing Ukraine, Baltic States and Poland in the right now if he knows the West won't move a finger? what is he waiting for?
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #85
>Hitler and Stalin were idealogical enemies until Ribbentrop-Molotov pact

So what? Didn't stop them carving up Poland!

> what is he waiting for?

Who knows, but think of Stalin and the nazis again, and also Putin in Ukraine and Syria. What do they have in common? Answer: a completely ruthless opportunism. So you'll have to wait and see. Just hope that Poland still has allies more powerful than Viktor Orban should anything happen.
OP jon357 63 | 14,124
18 Dec 2016  #86
PiS represents a return to PRL ways and mostly appeals to those who did not benefit from the end of the PRL (and low information voters

Basically yes.

I wandered down to the demonstration outside the Sejm yesterday and stayed a while listening to the speeches. A lot of people there, mostly middle-aged or older. As I left, there was a steady stream of people on their way there and it really does look like the pro-democracy movement is steadily and organically growing.

The more PIS attack decency and the rule of law, the harder the backlash will be against them.
gumishu 11 | 5,012
18 Dec 2016  #87
Who knows, but think of Stalin and the nazis again

ok, you are impenetrable to logic, bye
Ironside 48 | 9,750
18 Dec 2016  #88
Poland would be a very big prize for Russian prestige at home.

I'm not sure that that are ready to pay the price. Russian rules have that tendency to overestimate endurance of a common men. They're already hardships for majority of Russian at home, not alone caused by Russian imposed and imposed on Russia sanctions. Alas all Russian undertakings of the military and all those recent military operation cost an arm and a leg.

Not to mention that American troops will be stationed on the Polish soil from the January. So that so called incursion would have to happen before that date . As the American public do not take kindly to her boys being killed by some petty dictators.

Well, they managed to find the cash and enthusiasm for east Ukraine, Crimea and Syria

I wonder how long that enthusiasm would last if the north stream as well as that pipe in Poland stop pumping oil and gas from Russia.

That would be a very risky operation and costly either way - for Russia.
Ironside 48 | 9,750
18 Dec 2016  #89
The more PIS attack decency and the rule of law, the harder the backlash will be against them.

If post-commies wil overthrown the legal democratically elected Polish government - then all the bets are off and you'll see backlash against them in the years to come and I'm not even talking about PiS supporters.
OP jon357 63 | 14,124
18 Dec 2016  #90
Don't be silly, IS. Overthrowing the Polish constitution is indeed an aim of the post-commie PIS, however they will not succeed.


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