(I personally can't stand PiS and can't stand PO but I have the intution that PiS is going to make it this fall).
I think a lot is resting on Duda - if he vetoes laws and starts to massively interfere with the running of the country, the PiS vote will collapse. The problem that PiS have is that they might be in the horrific situation of getting 37-38% of the vote and then not having any coalition partner.
I wouldn't be terribly shocked if PiS entered a coalition with the likes of the SLD, however.
PS: do you vote (in Poland)?
Yep. I'm not allied to any party, although I can't stand PiS and Kukiz. I tend to vote for the best candidate from the rest.