'Fort Trump' Military Base in Poland

First and foremost, foreign investors are in Poland because the country is member of the EU, has an educated workforce and comparatively low wage levels. Foreign investors are NOT in Poland because the domestic market is so lucrative. What do you think would happen if Poland leaves the EU and the most important advantage is gone? Polish politicians seem to overestimate the economic and political power of the country within the EU and also on the world stage.

Who said anything about leaving when the EU when in fact it will collapse on its own? [for the reasons I've stated before] .

The EU is a political and ideological failed project when in fact all we need is just a free single market in Europe.

And that's what European Economic Community used to be before the leftist bureaucrats started to change into some kind of Huxley's negative utopia.

So I think that on a cold corpse of the EU we will be able to create a new EEC, just a free trade pact with no ideological strings attached.

No doubt, never said that's the main reason for mnc's to enter Poland. It's a 'make here' country, not a 'sell here.' The large companies that come to Poland do so mainly to produce their goods, outsource a back office function like customer service i.e. Chase, Goldman Sachs, Google, etc. Those companies are going to remain regardless of what Poland does. The ones that enter the market to sell care even less whether Poland is in the EU or not. As long as people are buying their products they could care less whether Poland leaves the EU and say makes a union with Russia and Belarus.

That being said, foreign mnc's aren't going to just leave plants costing billions of dollars just because Poland leaves the EU. In fact, Poland continues to receive FDI. LG is in the process of building what will be the largest EV battery factory in Europe. Only leftists care about the politics of doing business. To corporations that's for the most part a minor consideration of doing business. That's why Chinese companies go to Africa. That's why the US/UK does tens of billions worth of deals with Saudi Arabia. That's why Israel has Iranian oil pipelines despite them being their mortal economy. Money talks, bullshit walks. Do they care that Muslims and Christians are fighting it out in Nigeria? Do they care that the African miners are paid pennies an hour in Congo? No. As long as the stock and EPS remains high, most corporations and their owners don't care.


Not really. If anything Poland would have more fiscal freedom and could offer better tax incentives to corporations. If Poland left the EU, which it won't anyway, the large educated workforce - with a huge chunk of the youth speak English,


Again, not really. Poland is the largest economy in Eastern Europe (not counting Russia). It has a fairly large population compared to most EU countries. Also, it's economy is 6th largest in the EU and it's the breadbasket for much of Europe. Thus, by just those few factors Poland is far more important than most EU countries

Agreed 100%.

A collapse of the EU would be the worst that could happen to Poland for the reasons mentioned above. And what guarantees does Poland have that the country would become a member of the new EEC? My bet is that a resurrected EEC will not allow net recipients of monetary help to join. They won't make the same mistake twice.


Won't help the country much if the EU really collapses as Spike predicts. Once foreign importers have to pay customs fees, Polish products lose their price advantage. And then what?


We will have to agree to disagree here, because I believe that they won't. The only reason why they are in Poland are the labor costs and the easy, duty free access to the common market. Once that's gone, so are most of the foreign investors.

That is indeed what many people who want to restart the EU in Germany propose. Especially AfD voters argue that a downsized new EU should only include Germany, France, the Benelux countries and Scandinavia. Poland (and Eastern Europe) is usually not included in their vision for the reason you cited and because it is an obstacle for their vision of a close partnership with Russia.

That aside, I find it astonishing that some people really believe that Poland would be admitted to such a club. Some selective reasoning I guess.

The AfD wants a close partnership with Putin? Really? How is it possible for them to get so many votes in East Germany under these circumstances?

I asked that myself always back then als "Die Linke" was voted for so often too...now many of these voters have moved to the AfD....

I think don't you understand the idea behind EEC. There're would be no room there for any "structural funds" or "financial aids" just a good old single free market, like the one envisioned by Adam Smith. A platform for free and voluntary exchange of goods and services. Poland would thrive in such an environment.


Poland doesn't have to "admitted to such a club" since it wouldn't be a club but exactly the opposite: that would be a lack of club. That would be just a free market platform for free exchange of goods. Like a small enhanced WTO on an European scale.

And what would be the alternative to that? The answer is simple: customs war. That wouldn't be a good option for Poland but even worse for Germany, an "export champion of the world".

Germany would be hit twice: once when exporting goods to Poland and second time when importing half-products from Poland for German automotive industry.

It is you who has seemingly no clue about the EEC. The EEC was never simply a smaller WTO because it would not have worked that way without a political element.


Also not a realistic scenario. Poland is currently treated as an equal by its' richer western colleagues thanks to the EU. Without the EU it would lose this status, and in trade negotiations with Germany, it would be in a far weaker position.

EEC was far less political than the EU is so it is a move in the right direction. And also, in the future we can make it completely and purely about free trade and single market and nothing else but that. Life is a water not stone, my friend.

Why are you so keen about that "political aspect" of European integration anyway? Can't a regular German live a single day without thinking about controlling the others? Maybe, for a change, you should start with controlling what happens in your own country?


Not really, but it will be in the near future. And not because you would want to but simply because you will have to accept the new reality.

Yes really. It has the same rights and access to the Single market without preconditions.


Because there is no economic integration without a political one. No single market of this size with so many countries could exist without it. Look what toothless tiger the WTO.


The EU is not about control, but it seems futile to argue with someone who wants to see the EU as a tool of German domination. It would be so much easier if Germany had even half as much influence as you and others seem to think.

For everybody who want's to the the "real" Germany, just watch what happens without the "shackles" of the EU, without giving tinies/wannabes the same rights and the same vote and the same say and the gazillions of support funds...but then don't cry....

So you strongly believe that without constant supervision Germany will do something awful again? What you said sounded like a threat but a threat that completely exposes you and shows your weak spots.

And you also should know from history that Poland never back down to threat even when the threat was much greater than it is now.

Yet, in the age when German youth is running away from military service and when German men sit and cry when their girlfriend is being raped right in front of their eyes that's a really bold statement.

@TheOther

Itll be a case by case basis. If its cheaper to dismantle a factory, disrupt operations, relocate and find new staff than pay a potential tariff then yes they'd leave. But poland isnt leaving the eu for a while. Besides now that merkel is going to finally leave, macron is unpopular and the political arena has dramatically changed since just a few years ago so will the eus goals. The EP elections will determine much of the eus course.

If you want a case study look at uk, some firms left some didnt. Each companys situation is different. One big difference between uk and poland is that average wages are a fraction and that is more often than not a companys largest short term expense. In most cases that would offset a potential tariff. Its similar to the us. Many companies remained in mexico if they already had a plant bc shutting it down and losing the labor cost advantage would still be more costly than trumps tariff.

Hmmm...the author of that article is plain against an american "Fort Trump" in Poland...with many good reasons...with an interesting conclusion, but a plausible one?


theamericanconservative.com/articles/poland-wants-an-american-garrison-let-germany-do-it/

I read it. Perfect. Thanks for the link.
For a brief moment I felt bad when I wrote that the US is an asylum run by the inmates. After this article, I feel like a genius. The US is a loony bin and Germany is smart not to pay much attention to the idiots in the DC, Trump included.

Well, obviously the whole article is intended to be a joke and I had a good laugh reading it.

But let's make a thought experiment and take a look at the possibility of such project.

> The first obstacle would be that no sane Polish politician, regardless of political affiliations, would ever allow any German military bases in Poland.

I think I don't have to explain that any further

> The second obstacle would be a poor state of bundeswehr which lacks in morale and equipment alike:

"Shortfalls in the German army's personnel and equipment are "dramatically" hindering its readiness for combat, according to a new report.

No submarines or large transport planes were available for deployment at the end of last year, the report says.

It also points to failures in planning and leadership that have exacerbated existing problems in the military."

bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43134896

But maybe they could be used as a cannon fodder and stationed somewhere in the Ukraine?

How much would Germany charge for them and would they be cheaper by the battalion?.

And I would also rather take Ossies than Wessies cause they would be less expensive and more aggressive on the battlefield :-)

Give the Ossies some proper weapons and they'll beat your ass big time. Especially those that were trained in the NVA. :)

Actually, that sensationalistic stuff. Gerries are backpedaling on several things but what's "not available for delpoyment" according to German standards, would be "fully operational" in most of the world.

The guy is attacking it "from the right". "Why damn, ungrateful Euros can't defned themselves ?". That's what I mentioned several months ago when you or the T. guy was claiming how greate NATO ally of Poland, Germany is. Well, all what matters in NATO is America and countries like Germany or Spain do a lot to **** them off and discourage them from involvement in Europe.

Let's be honest, you Gerries would love that. Then you would have your "EU army" and another tool to force your products down the Europe's throat. Through "standarization of EU's army equipemnt".

Just out of curiosity, how much in your opinion would "reduction of funds" slow down Poland's economy ? Just provide some figures.

I told BB some time ago that Germans are not very well liked by many.
He did not believe me and posted "Stats" that proved I was wrong.
I think that in the last week he has seen that I was right and the stats were wrong....

I really love all these "worries" about the future of Poland. But in reality the number of residents in Poland is actually the highest ever.

And Trump could be the big catalyst for that as he won't let the sleeping dog lie....


Poland is demographically firmly in the western club now...meaning aging and shrinking:

Population growth rate
-0.13% (2017 est.) Country comparison to the world: 206th

Birth rate
9.5 births/1,000 population (2017 est.) Country comparison to the world: 202th

Death rate
10.4 deaths/1,000 population (2017 est.)

Net migration rate
-0.4 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2017 est.) Country comparison to the world: 118th

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Poland#Demographic_statistics

Bolstered by Ukrainian immigrants.....

...as Germany is trying to seduce them with higher living standards, civil rights and incomes.

The rivalry for immigrant worker has just begun...and it will be tough!


thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/389647,Germany%E2%80%99s-new-immigration-law-could-lure-Polishbased-Ukrainians-report

You are right BB.
That would be a major problem for Poland......

That's a great thing. Move it all south.


These statistics do not include +2 million immigrants living here.

No...it's about the natives...