Trump is embarassing himself, and I hope Orban loses the elections.
Magyar has a very strong lead.... but because of the gerrymandering done by Fidesz over the years - he really needs to win big to force them out.
Orban could easily lose the popular vote by a wide margin, and still remain in control of parliament.
They redrew districts in such a way, that heavily populated, opposition-dominated areas got jammed tightly into a small number of districts. Rural areas, instead, were spread over many constituencies and turned into little Fidesz Festungs.
What it does in practice, is (1) the opposition wins some districts with huge margins, (2) Fidesz wins many more smaller districts with smaller but sufficient margins.
Orban also created 106 single-member, first past the post districts. This matters because because the opposition is still rather fractured internally, while Fidesz runs as one unified bulldozer bloc.
Then he changed to rules in a more sneaky and subversive way, by devising a system that compensates losers by taking the excess votes from districts they won, and adds it back to the national tally.
Finally, you have the Hungarians abroad. Orban's most reliable tool.
If you are Hungarian citizen who is working abroad (more opposition leaning typically), then you have to come to an embassy and vote in person. However, if you are ethnic Hungarian living in a neighboring country, but a Hungarian passport holder - you can vote by mail.
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TLDR - Magyar's "commanding lead" as reported by the mainstream press, may not be quite sufficient enough to overcome all the tricks deployed by Fidesz.
Orban was certainly being consulted by Republican (US) and United Russia (Russia) political technologists when building this system, because it's all the same tricks.