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Election marathon 2018-2020 in Poland


mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #781
third hot take: PiS did so well because so many people wanted to be sure to get their public figures (Szydło, Zaleska, Właszczykowski et al) out of the domestic scene...
Moonlighting 30 | 232
27 May 2019 #782
One of you quoted a turnout of about 43%.
Yesterday, it was "niedziela handlowa". Does it have an impact on the turnout rate?
Have some people not voted because they were busy working or shopping?

And if they fit mostly a specific profile, would people who didn't go to vote for that reason be normally more encline to vote for PIS or KE?
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #783
PiS did so well because so many people wanted to be sure to get their public figures (Szydło, Zaleska, Właszczykowski et al) out

It's hard to see people voting tactically like that, but you never know.

With 99% of the vote counted:

PiS - 45.57%
KE - 38.29%
Wiosna - 6.04%
Konfederacja - 4.55%
Kukiz'15 - 3.7%
Razem - 1.2%

Projections now:

PiS - 26
KE - 22
Wiosna - 3

Konfederacja are claiming that there was electoral fraud, but the most intriguing thing is that politicians are suggesting that the PiS electorate turned up while the KE electorate didn't.
kondzior 9 | 954
27 May 2019 #784
The numbers might not show it, but the eurocucks got completely demolished. The coalition involving pretty much all the opposition parties (PO eurocuck traitors, PSL farmers' union, SLD post-commies, Greens, Nowoczesna the PO-clone), and even with that they couldn't threaten PiS - and the defeat is even greater because PiS was usually at a disadvantage in eurolections.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #785
The numbers might not show it, but the eurocucks got completely demolished.

Hardly. Completely demolished would mean winning by a large margin, not 26-25.
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #786
It's hard to see people voting tactically like that

I see you're unfamiliar with the concept of a 'hot take'....

t the PiS electorate turned up while the KE electorate didn't.

Under 30's at what.... 30% Do the math for a plus 40% turnout...

Have some people not voted because they were busy working or shopping?

It suggests that the timing of the parliamentary elections will be crucial (as will the weather...)
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #787
I see you're unfamiliar with the concept of a 'hot take'....

Hey now, I watch a lot of ESPN's First Take! Max Kellerman is one of my favourite sports guys, much as everyone else hates his guts ;)

Under 30's at what.... 30% Do the math for a plus 40% turnout...

It would be nice if the PKW actually bothered to publish numbers, because I'd like to see if the turnout in villages has been high.

(fortunately, I have a day off in lieu today, so I can spend the day reading ten million different opinions)
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #788
I like Komorowski's take: PiS won where that take more than give in terms of the budget (PiS won where people don't pay taxes)

In Poland, the West works.... the East has its hands out...
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #789
Results are published now - wybory.gov.pl/pe2019/en/wyniki/pl - and what we're seeing is that PiS are losing badly in major cities, but that they're either dominating the rural vote or at least coming close to KE in them. The differences are sometimes dramatic - for instance, in Skierniewice, KE won 41.75% to 41.26%. Yet in skierniewicki, PiS won 68% to 18%.

I don't remember who said it, mafketis? But that the division in Poland is now clearly urban-rural and not west/east. You can see it in Warsaw - KE won 50% to 27% there. Yet in otwocki, PiS won 48%-32%.

I like Komorowski's take: PiS won where that take more than give in terms of the budget (PiS won where people don't pay taxes)

Yup, it's absolutely true. PiS are clearly dominating in the poorest areas, and I suspect their electorate is simply terrified that any other party will take away their 'free money'.
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #790
But that the division in Poland is now clearly urban-rural and not west/east

I would say that the urban-rural split is overtaking the east-west split but it's not complete

PiS are clearly dominating in the poorest areas

which means PiS has no incentive to actually improve the economy, the more the economy for productive people improves the worse for PiS the more impoverished and dependent on handouts the better for PiS, not a good economic scenario... if some Polish government is ever daft enough to adopt the Euro a Greece style collapse is almost guaranteed (unless Germany needs its supply colony to stay afloat....)
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #791
There's a good analysis here: wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24831880,wybory-do-europarlamentu-2019-pis-nie-odebralo-wyborcow-po.html

Essentially, PiS won because they dominated the rural vote (47.2% of those voting in villages voted for PiS) and the retired (38% of all 60+ voters went to PiS).

I'd say it's almost certain that the two big welfare handouts - 500+ and extra pension cash was what made the difference here. Neither group will be particularly concerned about the long term consequences.

A nice comment from there:

The situation is similar to the 1970s - a consumption festival whose costs will be paid by the young generation for the next 30-40 years.

terri 1 | 1,634
27 May 2019 #792
But those who voted for PiS will be dead by then, so they will not care that their children and grandchildren will have to pay for all this.

Also priests in churches instructed all their congregations to go and vote for PiS which people did straight after each Mass.
Ziemowit 12 | 3,609
27 May 2019 #793
The situation is similar to the 1970s

"Pomożecie? ... Pomożemy!" - was the leitmotive of an enthusiasm with which Edward Gierek was credited for in the 1970s and which finally led to an economic disaster in Poland.

But today in Poland we do not have a centrally-planned economy which at that time made all machinery and such imports from the so-called "rotten" West useless as an investment.The outcome of the present increased spending should be different. What will it be precisly? No one knows, but I think it may surely affect future pensions. Investment in infrastructure may be affected in the long term as well. I wonder, for example, where the government is going to find all the money needed for building this huge central hub between Warsaw and Łódź. An answer to that can be that national debt should go up, but interest paid on it would be generating a substantial and increasing burden for the budget and in particular when interest rates go up as compared to the case of today. Then either inflation should accelerate which fact would be totally unique in today's world or taxes would have to be increased which will make the present government less and less popular.
gumishu 11 | 5,017
27 May 2019 #794
yes, that`s what I expected and hoped for - poor result of Wiosna

pawian the wishful thinker somehow shut up - probably on the advice of Jarosław Kurski he went and got drunk
Spike31 2 | 884
27 May 2019 #795
One of you quoted a turnout of about 43%.

It was even higher: 45,68% which has favored the largest political factions over smaller parties. I'm referring here mostly to Konfederacja and Kukiz but also to leftist Wiosna.

The numbers might not show it, but the eurocucks got completely demolished.

That's true. PiS has its faults and shortcomings, yet it is still much better than - lowest of the low - PO and KE. But I think PiS needs a guardian angel =Konfederacja= to keep them firmly on the right side of a political scene and not let them forget their right-wing voters and become center-right.

Anyway, let's not forget that a really important elections will take place in autumn.
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #796
How many more work permits do you want them to give to Nepalis? How is the right side of the political scene for someone like you?
Spike31 2 | 884
27 May 2019 #797
@mafketis, that's why PiS needs a guardian angel in Konfederacja.

There are 6 months left to parliamentary elections. That's a plenty of time to gain more support, especially since Konfederacja was created just 5 months ago and fully formed just 3 months ago.

I believe that they can became a Polish equivalent to Jobbik which in Hungary keeps Fidesz firmly on the right side.
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #798
I believe that they can became a Polish equivalent to Jobbik

The Polish equivalent to Jobbik (only possible due to the massive corruption and economic mismanagement of the previous socialist government) will be after PiS which is closer to the socialists than any kind of economic common sense...
Ironside 48 | 9,900
27 May 2019 #799
like Komorowski's

I would like to see him behing the bars. Why are you even listening to that Soviet creature?

riests in churches instructed all their congregations to go and vote

They forgot to put some holly water on you.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #800
I would like to see him behing the bars.

You can take the Ironside out of the PRL but...
Spike31 2 | 884
27 May 2019 #801
@mafketis, you are partially right.

Socialism is build on two pillars: economic (enforced redistribution of fruits of labor) and even more dangerous ideological idoctrination (attack on family and traditional European values, multikulti, LGBT and all forms of mental deviations)

With the right government you can halt socialist redistribution at will (it was done before by Thatcher and Reagan) but the damage done to society by ideological indoctrination is almost irreversible and it will take generations to bring it back to normal.
gumishu 11 | 5,017
27 May 2019 #802
give to Nepalis

how many were given out untill now - 30 000 ? 50 000? a drop in the ocean?
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #803
that's what they said in Germany once....
gumishu 11 | 5,017
27 May 2019 #804
will be after PiS which is closer to the socialists

I am not a thoughtless supporter of PiS but the first 500 plus programme was completely funded already in 2017 by the extra VAT incomes created when PiS moved to stop the VAT leak - I am not a supporter of 500 plus for every child to be honest - but somehow Polish people at large were not entirely thrilled by the first 500 plus - which I find ungreatful - if Polish people were grateful PiS should have more than 50 per cent support without this current additional welfare programmes
Jaskier
27 May 2019 #805
Grateful? Noone ja giving anything for free. It's citizens money paid in tax! And Polish ppl do and will pay for it dearly.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #806
I saw one survey that showed that PiS voters believed that the money came from the government's own funds. They have little to no idea that the money actually comes from all the hidden taxes, such as the recent tax increase on fuel.
gumishu 11 | 5,017
27 May 2019 #807
Noone ja giving anything for free.

the VAT income tax grew by 28 per cent between in 2017 as compared to 2016 - even if we take into account the better economic situation around the world it seems plausible that the VAT returns that caused the VAT hole in the previous years amounted to 20 per cent of the whole VAT income - this money came almost free - and it mostly covered the original 500 plus programme - this years proposals are essentially 'kiełbasa wyborcza' and I don't think they are ultimately a responsible things to offer - I wanted to go and vote for Kukiz as a form of a protest vote but I ended up not going to vote at all for reasons I don't want to share - but I sort of understand Kaczyński - he has a vision of Poland a Poland without corruption which means PiS needs to finish their reshaping of the judiciary and it will take a couple of years to achieve - I am a supporter of this reshaping and I am aware that they would need another term in office to accomplish it but it still strikes me as irresponsible to offer such vast social spending programmes (the 13th 'emerytura' is just a tip of the iceberg I guess)
Jaskier
27 May 2019 #808
It's not that Simple. It's not like Poland is 'in plus with all the major issues sorted. Where is the care for disabled (who need help more than well to fo families for example), hospitals, teachers and so on?

Poland without corruption which means PiS needs to finish their reshaping of the judiciary

Since when judicary more dependent on politicians is the same as one without corruptions?
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #809
he has a vision of Poland

Yet he's overseen huge amounts of corruption and nepotism, so how does that work? You have the situation where PiS members that break the law are allowed to carry on unpunished, and the only ones that get punished are those getting punished for personal reasons (Misiewicz, for example, who appears to have been hated even more by PiS than by everyone else)

Since when judicary more dependent on politicians is the same as one without corruptions?

A judiciary dependent on politicians leads to political trials. I cannot understand for the life of me why anyone would want to return to the days of politicians having control over judges, like in the PRL.
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #810
many PiS voters secretly long for the days of the PRL where they had no decisions to make...

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