Results are published now - wybory.gov.pl/pe2019/en/wyniki/pl - and what we're seeing is that PiS are losing badly in major cities, but that they're either dominating the rural vote or at least coming close to KE in them. The differences are sometimes dramatic - for instance, in Skierniewice, KE won 41.75% to 41.26%. Yet in skierniewicki, PiS won 68% to 18%.
I don't remember who said it, mafketis? But that the division in Poland is now clearly urban-rural and not west/east. You can see it in Warsaw - KE won 50% to 27% there. Yet in otwocki, PiS won 48%-32%.
I like Komorowski's take: PiS won where that take more than give in terms of the budget (PiS won where people don't pay taxes)
Yup, it's absolutely true. PiS are clearly dominating in the poorest areas, and I suspect their electorate is simply terrified that any other party will take away their 'free money'.