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Election marathon 2018-2020 in Poland


delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #751
Let`s remember, exit polls don`t need to be final results.

In fairness, they normally get it very close.

It means that there's almost nothing in it. We'll need to look at the detailed turnout figures to get more of an idea, but it looks like some Wiosna voters switched at the last minute to KE. K'15 are finished, Razem are finished, and both Wiosna and Konfederacja are only projected to have one secure seat.
OP pawian 161 | 9,971
26 May 2019 #752
I wonder if the result will get through to Biedroń that he needs to be part of a coalition...

yes, that`s what I expected and hoped for - poor result of Wiosna. But I realised that his access to the coalition might cause controvercies among its conservative members - PSL.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #753
I wonder what goodies they still think they can promise voters

I think this is the big question: what else can they offer? I suspect we're going to see an extra pension payment rushed through with no consultation for a start.

Predicted seats:

PiS: 24
KE: 22
Wiosna: 3
Konfederacja: 3
Spike31 2 | 884
26 May 2019 #754
Estimated [record] turnout: 43%

Estimated results:

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość - 42.4 procent
Koalicja Europejska - 39.1 procent
Wiosna Biedronia - 6.6 procent
Konfederacja KORWiN Braun Liroy Narodowcy - 6.1 procent
-
Kukiz'15 - 4.1 procent
Lewica Razem - 1.3 procent

If KE lost even the EU elections they will get even worse beating in Parliamentary elections.

My predictions from 3 days ago

My prediction is: the higher the participation, the worse overall results for KE.

NoToForeigners 7 | 1,032
26 May 2019 #755
PiS!!! Great job fellow Poles!!! No to leftist ill liberalism!!! Let's change the EU!!!
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #756
If KE lost even the EU elections they will get even worse beating in Parliamentary elections.

Not really. They ran with almost no programme and no real effort against PiS that threw everything at this election - expensive social welfare promises, a huge amount of hard work by Kaczyński and many big names such as Szydło and Kempa standing as candidates.

I would be incredibly careful about proclaiming this to be a success for anyone. Even with Konfederacja, they've actually lost compared to the 2014 result.
NoToForeigners 7 | 1,032
26 May 2019 #757
If KE lost even the EU elections they will get even worse beating in Parliamentary elections.

Exactly. PiS electorate mobilizes even more in our internal elections!
Spike31 2 | 884
26 May 2019 #758
Not really. They ran with almost no programme

I couldn' agree more. Their only program was: "we're against everything that PiS does and/or says" and "we want the power and priviledges back now!". KE/PO voters didn't vote for KE, they vote against PiS.

I can say a lot of words of criticism about PiS, yet when compared to PO/KE/Nowoczesna/Wiosna they are few levels above them.

Even with Konfederacja, they've actually lost compared to the 2014 result.

Konfederacja has shown that the truly ideological and conservatist right can unite and that it can also score the results which will guarantee parliamentary seats. Many potential voters won'tbe afraid of "wasted vote" syndrome in the future.

I predict that for the next 6 months until the next elections they will grow and absorb Kukiz 15 voters and some of the most conservative PiS voters.
kondzior 9 | 954
26 May 2019 #759
The voters seem simply not agitated enough against PiS to consider voting for the clown show known as KE, a stunning display of political incompetence considering how much of a handicap PiS is giving them with its own stupidity. At this rate the only possibility of PiS losing is due to economic crisis hitting its core voters or Tusk coming back and purging his party of imbeciles and reforming it. Neither seems likely to happen in time for it to matter (which is this year since the parliament's term is almost up).
mafketis 21 | 7,458
26 May 2019 #760
PiS electorate mobilizes even more in our internal elections!

IE their grubby little hands are outstretched as they whine... MORE!!!!!!
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #761
KE/PO voters didn't vote for KE, they vote against PiS.

Which should be worrying for PiS. If a grouping with no policies and without many big names can score 39%, what does it mean for parliamentary elections where they'll field much stronger candidates and work much harder? PiS threw everything at this campaign - welfare, big names and more, yet they didn't achieve a convincing win.
OP pawian 161 | 9,971
26 May 2019 #762
If KE lost even the EU elections they will get even worse beating in Parliamentary elections.

I hate kicking a dead horse but you are provocative so ....... :):)

Why don`t you talk about a beating that Konfederacja has just scored? They got about 6%. Only. You counted for more. :):)
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #763
They got about 6%. Only.

Which is down on the combined Nowa Prawica / Ruch Narodowy score in 2014.

Still, I can appreciate the way they picked a single issue (Jewish repatriations) and focused on it. It worked for them, and probably finished off K'15 in the process.

I think what we can all agree on is that every vote matters, perhaps more so than ever.
Spike31 2 | 884
26 May 2019 #764
@delphiandomine, I'm afraid you don't have an idea about Polish politics.

KE/PO has thrown everything they've had. And they also had overwhelming support of the mass media (excluding public broadcaster), newspapaers and celebrities, not to mention EU politicians (including "the president of Europe").

Yet, it wasn't enough since they lack true elites and are unable to produce any coherent political idea and all they are mentally capable of is:

a) non-constructive criticism not only of PiS or other political parties but also the very foundations of a true European civilisation
b) copycatting dumb ideas invented by even dumber EU left wing groups and politicians and trying to implement them in Poland

They got about 6%. Only. You counted for more. :):)

You're trying to put your own words in my mouth. Point me to the post where I said that. I'm pretty sure those were your words
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #765
KE/PO has thrown everything they've had.

They haven't. Look at their lists, they put up - frankly speaking - political dinosaurs. Miller, Kopacz and others had their day, and they were up against people who have been in the public eye for 4 years now. Yet PiS didn't land a knockout blow, despite all the huge welfare promises made.

The most interesting question now is what PiS does with Konfederacja.
mafketis 21 | 7,458
26 May 2019 #766
My idea is... try to ignore them. I'm half expecting JK to go underground again within the next month or two in preparation for the next election.

They can't campaign on Smolensk again, they can't campaign on becoming a normal CD party (as in 2015) they can't campaign on any concrete successes (disastrous education reform). All they can campaign on is being a German economic colony (not their doing but just the way things are and no Polish party wants to publicize that unpalatable fact) and handouts which the feckless PiS electorate have a bottomless hankering for....
Spike31 2 | 884
26 May 2019 #767
@delphiandomine, as much I like to hear from your mouth insults thrown at those poor excuses for politicians from KE/PO like Kopacz and company, those were exactly the most recognized faces in the coalition.

And the elections to the EU Circus in Poland, which are treaded much less seriously than Parliamentary elections, are in fact a popularity contest not a competence contest.

That said, despite all those efforts and forming a "large coalition", losing the EU elections was in fact a TKO and a red card before the most important Autumn Elections.
Spike31 2 | 884
26 May 2019 #768
The most interesting question now is what PiS does with Konfederacja.

Like in a Hungarian scenario "Fidesz/Jobbik", PiS will have to accept that there's a party on the right side

Konfederacja will help PiS to stay firmly on the right side and to listen to the conservative electorate instead of looking for a mythical "centre voters". They would also correct their foreign policy. Any move towards centre by PiS would give Konfederacja new fuel to grow.

A scenario in which PiS would be unable to rule without coalition with Konfederacja after autumn elections would be an ideal scenatio for Poland.
OP pawian 161 | 9,971
26 May 2019 #769
which the feckless PiS electorate

Voters who declared to be farmers mostly supported PiS:

PiS - 70,1 proc.
Koalicja Europejska - 18,6 proc.
Konfederacja - 3,8 proc.
Kukiz'15 - 3,3 proc.
Wiosna - 2,9 proc.
Lewica Razem - 1,2 proc.

You're trying to put your own words in my mouth. Point me to the post where I said I'm pretty sure those were your words

I didn`t write you said such words. No. I only wrote you expected more. Frankly, didn`t you?
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #770
Interesting figures regarding education level and residence, too:

oko.press/pis-z-ogromna-przewaga-na-wsi-i-wsrod-najslabiej-wyksztalconych-ke-wygrywa-wsrod-30-i-40-latkow/
Ironside 48 | 9,900
26 May 2019 #771
PiS 43,1 KE38,4%

Nahmost voters 18-29 voted PIS and Konfedracja those 30 and 40 voted mostly on KE
OP pawian 161 | 9,971
26 May 2019 #772
Voters over 60 years old

PiS - 52,2
Koalicja Europejska - 39,9
Wiosna - 3,1
Konfederacja - 2,4
Kukiz'15 - 1,5
Lewica Razem - 0,8

Again, PiS won in the countryside and lost in biggest cities. Decisively in both cases.

Countryside
PiS - 56,3
KE - 27,5

Towns to 50.000
KE - 42,8
PiS - 38,7

Cities 51-200.000
KE - 42,7
PiS - 36,4

Cities 201-500.000
KE - 51 .
PiS - 31,6

Cities over 500.000
KE - 50,4
PiS - 27
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #773
Nahmost voters 18-29 voted PIS and Konfedracja those 30 and 40 voted mostly on KE

Worth pointing out that young voters also didn't bother to vote (again). Only 27% of them bothered to show their faces.

The most fascinating and intriguing thing about this election is that nothing much is changing. PiS are dominating in villages, losing in towns/cities. PiS dominate among those without an education, KE among those with an education.

Talk about a dangerous divide in society.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #774
and handouts which the feckless PiS electorate have a bottomless hankering for....

I'm absolutely convinced that they're going to go even further with it now. Kaczyński was saying how their vote was too small and how they need more, but where are they going to get that vote from if they don't give away even more electoral sausage?
Spike31 2 | 884
26 May 2019 #775
I only wrote you expected more. Frankly, didn`t you?

I expected Konfederacja to get into the EU parliament (when most "opinion" polls gave them no more than 1-3% up until the last week*) and they delivered.

Now I expect them to grow and to absorb most of those 4% that Kukiz had.

*it's time to start holding those institutes legally accountable for delivering manipulative information
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
26 May 2019 #776
*it's time to start holding those institutes legally accountable for delivering manipulative information

Why? Anyone that followed the election could see that Konfederacja were going nowhere until PiS got into the Jewish mess and Konfederacja picked up on it. Kukiz was trying too, but Konfederacja simply did a much better job of insulting PiS and portraying them as betraying Poland. Any rational observer can see that they found a way to generate a lot of online hype in the last week or so while PiS came across as insincere liars about the issue.
NoToForeigners 7 | 1,032
27 May 2019 #777
After 80% of votes counted PiS is leading by more than 11 points! Totalna Opozycja = Totalna Kompromitacja! Ahahaahha

PiS - 47,72 proc. głosów,
KE - 36,42 proc.,
Wiosna Roberta Biedronia - 5,82 proc.,
Konfederacja - 4,52 proc.,
Kukiz'15 - 3,74 proc.,
Lewica Razem - 1,22 proc.

Source: wiadomosci.wp.pl/wyniki-wyborow-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-goracy-poniedzialek-6385363059238529a
cms neuf - | 1,021
27 May 2019 #778
Inter3sting night - PiS got their vote out well. Konfederacja at the moment just below the threshold.

Map of course as divided as usual - straight east / west split with Warsaw the only exception.

Low frequency a problem for KE - saw one report that only 30 percent of young people voted.
mafketis 21 | 7,458
27 May 2019 #779
my second hot take: It appears that some PiS voters are too embarrassed about it to admit their predilection to pollsters....
delphiandomine 83 | 17,771
27 May 2019 #780
Yes, it looks like people claimed to vote for Kukiz/Konfederacja and then actually voted for PiS.

Provisional division of seats:

PiS: 27
KE: 22
Wiosna: 3

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