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Election marathon 2018-2020 in Poland


delphiandomine 83 | 17,679
22 May 2019  #691
Actually Pesel holding foreigners can vote in Euro and local elections.

And those with citizenship can vote in everything without restriction ;)

The weather forecast for Sunday in Zielona Góra is cloudy, but no rain. What's your local polling station, Notty? I'll get the paper tomorrow for voting in a different district and cancel your vote out. It'll be fun, not least because you...

can't do anything about it.

:)
Ironside 48 | 9,796
22 May 2019  #692
In Tri-City. By far the best place in Poland to live.

I guess you love Polish Palermo.
OP pawian 161 | 9,968
22 May 2019  #693
Is that why pis won in a landslide?

No, you don`t know everything about Polish elections. E..g, are you aware of D`hondt method of counting votes? Pis didn`t win because it was so strong , they won because a few smaller parties didn`t reach the minimum and their votes were distributed among others who did. Using pure arithmetic, and taking into consideration those who didn`t go to ballot, PiS was supported by 20'% Poles.

Stop talking about majority, then.

There's plenty of young women who support nationalist policies,

Actually, this is your own private projection. :):) You simply watch too many youtube films showing nationalist marches or demos where there is always one or a few pretty girls. The problem is that you also need to read statistics which say that most young women prefer liberals.

And at the end of the day Poland will be as follows - conservative, nationalistic and Catholic.

God forbid! :):)

In German hands.

Thank you, Germans, for running those media which provide us with independent coverage of events, contrary to PiS dirty bolshevik propaganda. If not for Germans and Americans who own a big chunk of media in Poland, we would live like in Belarus or Russia today. Only Kremlin trolls like Ironside and a few other brainwashed nationalists don`t see it.
Ironside 48 | 9,796
22 May 2019  #694
Yes........ So what?

Only that your opinion about Poland political parties had been formed by German media. Don't you think it makes you look like a clueless sucker?

Thank you, Germans, for running those media

People like you shouldn't be even citizens, should be there class of helots or peoni without voting rights. You talking treason and you proud of it. I need to take a shower you are vile....
OP pawian 161 | 9,968
22 May 2019  #695
Don't you think it makes you look like a clueless sucker?

No, by criticising German owned media which offer a broad spectrum of opinions, also supporting PiS, you are a sucker to Putin. :):)

I need to take a shower you are vile....

I would need to use a waterfall to wash that slime that covers me after reading you. :) How much do they pay you for each traitor`s post?
Ironside 48 | 9,796
22 May 2019  #696
I would need to use a waterfall

You are bold because treason pays in Poland. I hope there will be time when treason is reworded with the gallows. I hope you never change your tune.
OP pawian 161 | 9,968
22 May 2019  #697
:):) Yes, we already talked about your mad nationalist final solution dream - eliminate all those who think different. Don`t worry, I won`t change my tune even when facing death - while standing on the gallows platform, I will spit into your repugnant face and shout: Long live free Poland! Down with fascist nationalists! F....k you! I only hope you won`t gag me - if you do, I will shout with my eyes!
Ironside 48 | 9,796
22 May 2019  #698
mad nationalist

Nothing nationalist about punishment for treason, just a standard procedurę, temporary revoked.

I will spit into your repugnant face

Huh? I have a noble face and I'm good looking, beside I wouldn't be there. Why would I? Some petty crminal begging for his life is not that interesting.
Spike31 2 | 865
22 May 2019  #699
Long live free Poland! Down with fascist nationalists! F....k you! I only hope you won`t gag me

You are becoming melodramatic, @pawian Or is it just a pre-election paranoia? :-)

If fact, it is the left side which would like to gag any opposition and ostracize those who are not sharing their views.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,679
22 May 2019  #700
Pis didn`t win because it was so strong , they won because a few smaller parties didn`t reach the minimum

Yes, and because the centrist vote split between PO and Nowoczesna, PiS managed to win a few additional seats that they wouldn't have won otherwise. The electoral mathematics are quite complicated, but in terms of pure votes, PiS scored marginally (less than 100,000) more votes than PO did in 2011, and only won about 700,000 more votes than PO/N. combined.

It's quite interesting running electoral simulations with opinion poll results. For instance, let's take the averages from the polls on ewybory.eu. I come up with:

PiS (38.50%): 193
KE (37.39%): 188
Wiosna (10.00%): 50
K'15 (5.76%): 29
Konfederacja (4.89%): Not enough votes
Razem (2.83%): Not enough votes

KE+Wiosna would have 238 and a majority.

But what happens if Konfederacja make it along with K'15?

PiS (38.40%): 184
KE (37.30%): 178
Wiosna (9.97%): 47
K'15 (5.75%): 27
Konfederacja (5.12%): 24
Razem (2.82%): Not enough votes

PiS+K'15+Konfederacja would be on 235 and a majority.

Let's say Konfederacja finish off Kukiz and take most of their support:

PiS (38.64%): 188
KE (37.53%): 183
Wiosna (10.04%): 49
Konfederacja (8.37%): 40
Razem (2.84%): Not enough votes
K'15 (1.93%): Not enough votes

Because d'Hondt rewards bigger parties, such a scenario actually punishes Konfederacja. It would leave KE+Wiosna on 232, just enough for a majority.

This is why Pawłowicz is right when she says that every vote counts.
Dirk diggler 9 | 4,524
22 May 2019  #701
Pis didn`t win because it was so strong , they won because a few smaller parties didn`t reach the minimum and their votes

It won a supermajority. That's all that counts. The rest is petty details

And it's still the most popular party in Poland. Add kukiz and konfederacja to the mix and it's clear that the majority of poles support conservative right wing parties.

Stop talking about majority, then.

Polls prove that the majority of poles are against turd world migration and gay people especially when it comes to marraige and adopting kids. That is indisputable fact.

I'm still laughing about konfederacja putting a yarmulke on a pis politician though and saying they kneel to the Jews. Brilliant political move especially now that the extortion act known as JUST was just signed by the biggest shabbos goy in the world. I dare say Obama was 100x better for Poland than trump. Same with bush. Atleast they didn't kowtow to every single concession that Israel and the Jews ask for.
Ironside 48 | 9,796
23 May 2019  #702
Yes

I tell you now that those polls overestimate wiosna and kukuz, wiosna reall support 2.60% and kukiz 4,90% 5.01%. konfederacja at least 8%
delphiandomine 83 | 17,679
23 May 2019  #703
Add kukiz and konfederacja to the mix and it's clear that the majority of poles support conservative right wing parties.

Poll of Polls:

PiS: 38.3%
KE: 34.4%
Wiosna: 9.2%
Kukiz: 5.3%
Konfederacja: 4.5%
Lewica Razem: 2.6%

Right: 49.1%
Left/centre: 48.2%
dolnoslask 5 | 2,454
23 May 2019  #704
Long live free Poland! Down with fascist nationalists! F....k you!

I never though of you as a radical I can sense hate within you .

Politics appear to be getting more and more angry an violent , there seems to be a trend towards using violent words or acts to shutdown people with different opinions.

Only the other day in Italy, on the eve of EU elections.

liveleak.com/view?t=9McoO_1558462254

I hope this is not the future for Poland
OP pawian 161 | 9,968
23 May 2019  #705
I never though of you as a radical

I am not , I only become one when I meet an adult person who holds crazy views like a child who dreams of being a king or princess. :)

I can sense hate within you .

Stop playing evil Lord Vader, please. It is useless on me, I won`t turn to your dark side of the force, even on the gallows where Ironside is going to hang/behead me and you will be aiding him. :):)

You are becoming melodramatic,

Yes, but this is necessary in my job.
Ironside 48 | 9,796
23 May 2019  #706
olds crazy views

you are the one that holds crazy childlike views. German media to shape democracy in Poland,The EU to ensure Poland Prosper, EU penpushers and their arbirary demands are OK and good for Poland.

Hey why don't we abolish Polish state, be consistent if all you say is not crazy stupid and delusional why bother? It a state only cost money for nothing.
Spike31 2 | 865
23 May 2019  #707
"These populist, nationalists, stupid nationalists, they are in love with their own countries," Juncker told CNN.

Thank you mister Drunker for your kind support.

politico.eu/article/juncker-lashes-out-at-stupid-nationalists/
delphiandomine 83 | 17,679
23 May 2019  #708
they are in love with their own countries

They are in love, but they do nothing for the country that they claim to love so much.

Latest poll:

PiS: 38.7%
KE: 35%
Wiosna: 6.3%
Konfederacja: 6%
K'15: 4.9%

In short, way too close to tell. Probably PiS and KE will draw or be within 1 seat of each other, and one projection I've seen has Konfederacja missing out while K'15 will take one seat. If K'15 take even one seat, it will be a remarkable result for them.
Spike31 2 | 865
23 May 2019  #709
@delphinadomine, you're getting too much excited about the elections to the EU Circus which won't attract more than 1/3 of the voters in Poland. A reallly important elections will take place in autumn.
Atch 17 | 2,890
23 May 2019  #710
Which, judging by previous form, will attract a staggering 50%. Still I suppose that will be better than the 7.8% turnout for the 2015 referendum.
Spike31 2 | 865
23 May 2019  #711
Atch, what's more important it will activate countryside voters and most of them are conservative
delphiandomine 83 | 17,679
23 May 2019  #712
A reallly important elections will take place in autumn.

These are pretty much a dress rehearsal. The election has been fought almost exclusively on Polish matters, not European ones.

If Konfederacja and Kukiz fail now, they're not going to succeed in October.
OP pawian 161 | 9,968
23 May 2019  #713
elections to the EU Circus which won't attract more than 1/3 of the voters in Poland. A reallly important elections will take place in autumn.

First of all, 40% or more who are going to vote are not 1/3. Secondly, the EP elections are extremely important because the winner will boast of the victory for months before national elections.

Atch, what's more important it will activate countryside voters and most of them are conservative

Of course not, rural people don`t usually feel activated during such elections. Why should they be now?

Which, judging by previous form, will attract a staggering 50%.

Quite possible. A dozen of angry men or even more are going to take part.

Latest poll:

Delph, don`t trust those polls, they are all false. :)

Let`s compose our own poll, strictly based on perfect logic, knowledge and understanding of the situation.

KE - 45%
PIS - 34%
Wiosna - 8%
Konfederacja - 7%
Kukiz- 6%

Turn out - 45%.
kondzior 9 | 950
23 May 2019  #714
LoL this year they are pushing really hard with all that EU voting. Here is everywhere,radio,tv and gsms. It will be pretty hard to legitimatise a democraticly elected government if only 20% of people vote for that nonsense. . The globalists are in full brick sh!tting mode.
Spike31 2 | 865
23 May 2019  #715
First of all, 40% or more who are going to vote are not 1/3

Declarations and actions are two different things. But who knows, maybe they'll really storm voting stations like there's no tomorrow and we will see 100% turn out like in communist times? :-P

Meanwhile, I'd suggest that you would check and compare the statistics for the EU elections in Poland:

Year 2004 20,9%
Year 2009 24,53%
Year 2014 23,83%

With Parliamentary elections in Poland:

Year 2005 40,57%
Yeat 2007 53,88%
Year 2011 48,92%
Year 2015 50.92%
Miloslaw 6 | 2,329
23 May 2019  #716
The globalists are in full brick sh!tting mode

They are.
The people of Europe are waking up to what is happening at last.
And they don't like what they see.
OP pawian 161 | 9,968
23 May 2019  #717
Meanwhile, I'd suggest that you would check and compare the statistics for the EU elections in Poland:

Yes, your figures on past years are correct. Yet, I suggest you should also read a few articles about these elections scoring the record participation.
Spike31 2 | 865
23 May 2019  #718
@pawian since it costs nothing let's predict the future :-)

My prediction is: the higher the participation, the worse overall results for KE.

Just a few months ago there was no issue of KE scoring less than PiS in the EU elections and it was only argued how many more votes than PiS they will get. Now they're excited when both results are equal. And PiS is afraid that Konfederacja will take "their" votes from conservative voters.

Since there's EU circus in Strasburg has no real power, because decision are being made by [non-elected] European Council, those elections will serve mostly as a PR event before autumn elections in Poland.

And now let's wait and see.
OP pawian 161 | 9,968
23 May 2019  #719
those elections will serve mostly as a PR event before autumn elections in Poland.

yes, exactly. I never said it was different.

My prediction is: the higher the participation, the worse overall results for KE.

Who knows? But I sort of doubt it. Higher participation will be a result of PiS opponents attendance. . :)
gumishu 11 | 5,015
24 May 2019  #720
perfect logic, knowledge and understanding of the situation.

e.g your own wishful thinking

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