Poland's economic future?

The leprechaun economics thing is actually what some Nobel prize winning economist said about Ireland so yes, we are indeed a very strange little country where everything is just a bit illogical and yet somehow it all works anyway. But we did actually have 25 years of year on year continuous growth from the 1980s before the big crash in 2008. Poland is a totally different kettle of fish. I would say that despite its size, it's a much more fragile economy than Ireland partly because it's politically far less stable.

How do you figure that Ireland lags way behind Poland and is projected to lag further behind.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_and_social_rankings_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe

Also check out the EBA banking stress test results, Irelands position is shocking, even after Britains bail out funds.

How do you figure that?, Germany is the country struggling to form a government, Polands government on the other hand is solid and their popularity is gaining strength every month (have you seen the lates polls). nobody is taking their money out of Poland in fact the opposite is true GDP is going from strength to strength.

The only unrest is from Marxist EU foreigners who wish to undermine Polands success.

I took at look at that link Dolno. Bit of a mish mash of statistical sources there and some of them a few years old and where social rankings are concerned Ireland is way ahead of Poland. Anyway, the bottom line is that Ireland remains one of the richest countries in the EU. If you look at the EU official stats you will see that Ireland, in terms of GDP is in second place after Luxembourg while Poland is in 26th place. Now if you look at AIC which is the actual spending power of a household, Ireland despite being in second place for GDP is around 10% below the EU average but Poland is 20-25% below average so whatever way you look at it, it's Poland that lags behind Ireland, and not the other way round.

We have also honoured our bail-out debts and in December the Taoiseach announced that we'd be paying off some of them early.

"I think this is a very significant landmark that Ireland is able to pay off in full and early all of its loans to Sweden, Denmark and the International Monetary Fund."

We won't pay off the UK one early as there would be a penalty attached.

Of course we made a complete mess of the economy in the first place but there you go! Life's not fair is it :))


Poland like most of the post-communist countries has a lot of Banana Republic elements to it still, you know it has Dolno. It's unpredictable here and huge, sweeping reforms and changes can and do happen overnight in a way that doesn't occur in long established democracies.

These things happen , luckily for Poland things are on the way up, I also have to commend a government who put people above money, as of march many low paid workers will be free of the shackles of having to work for a pittance on Sundays, they will have time with their families all this on top of the 500+ project which is giving great support to struggling families .

Next project properly funded universal healthcare.. Nai Bevan would be pleased with the progress Poland is making.

When was that Dolno? In some Shangri-La?
You know what happens when a state spends money it hasn't got Dolno. Britain in the 1960s. You would know well how life was there in the 1970s as a result. We are still paying for it now, it's called austerity. Your grandchildren (if they actually live in Poland) will be sorting out this financial mess. My daughter, on the other hand, has already washed her hands of it and moved away. Wake up and smell the coffee, because it's going to turn rancid pretty quickly, This government and other populists like them will implode the economy given the time and freedom to make a total mess of things.

Not if the capitalists feet are held to the fire and they pay their fair share of employer contributions towards the proper care of employees and citizens, this government has shown it is prepared to take on the big boys and make them pay their dues for profit that they are making out of Poland.

Make the foreign and local monopolies, supermarkets and businesses pay more why not, if it doesn't fly for them they can go elsewhere, but I bet you they won't

" how life was there in the 1970s "

Country held to ransom by Marxist commie sympathisers, wanting to create a perfect state on the model of the soviet union.

I'm not sure they do. If they did, then there would be far greater social initiatives and other important community supports for the elderly, disabled and so on. And they wouldn't be continuing to poison the people with smog levels amongst the worst in Europe, nearly as bad as New Delhi at times. Really Dolno, the smog in some urban areas of Poland rivals London of the 1950s or LA of the 1970s. And I wouldn't be too happy about their plans for nuclear power either - you could have another Chernobyl on your hands a few years down the road.

Exactly the Soviets bashed us back to the stone age and we need to catch up and the only way of funding it is via gdp growth with appropriate and fair taxation of the large multis.


Then if we have to build em its best to site them on the Ukraine or Belarus borders where the prevailing winds blow east.

That's not a very Christian attitude Dolno. I hope you're being tongue in cheek.

And you can't continue blaming the Soviets for everything. They've been gone for a generation now. The present government is not only doing almost nothing about the poisonous air quality - and failing to educate the population about its dangers - they're pledged to continue using coal as the main fuel source for Poland.

What you deny Katyn, my parents deportation to Siberia, the systematic murder of Polish inteligencia, years of soviet rule which denied free speech, free trade and free movement.


There is simply no other economic choice at the moment, alternatives are too expensive.

New laws on household use of solid fuel are being put into place, the requirement to change boilers to less polluting models and a ban on the worst low quality coal products.

So when you are saying almost nothing they are doing as much as possible in the circumstances

Dolno, don't be silly. Of course not. But Poland cant' keep blaming the Rooskies, anymore than Ireland could keep blaming the Brits for our ills. It's not the Soviet's fault that Poland has filthy air. Poland has had thirty years and the advice and mentoring of a great many international experts available to them gratis through many sources, to do something about that problem.


They're doing the bare minimum and that's a fact.

Ireland has had more time to recover.


Then the EU can cough up the money for the alternatives.

Oh and Germany has agreed a Russian gas pipeline that completely bypasses Poland, so no chance of a good bulk gas price deal for us, we will still be held to ransom on prices and availability by the ruskies

Well, almost immediately after the Irish War of Independence back in the 1920s when we were a very poor country we built one of the most ambitious hydro-electric power stations in Europe at that time and it's still functioning today so I wouldn't accept that argument. My own grandfather was a young trainee engineer and was one of the guys sent to Siemens in Germany as part of the project. It cost a terrifying one fifth of the state budget so, it's all about priorities and how you decide to spend your money.

Well what a great Idea but what are you going to say when Poland starts flooding tens of thousands of hectares to create the necessary dams , whole villages / valleys under water predominantly in the national parks (Where the water is)

The outcry would be bigger than the current Forrest fiasco.

I'm not suggesting Poland builds something on the comparative scale of Ardnacrusha or that hydro-electric is the right route for Poland. I'm saying that solutions can be found to sustainable energy problems but it takes vision, courage and prudent financial planning to achieve them. Giving people 500zl per month for each child and at the same time, creating a Poland where those children are being poisoned by toxic fumes - well you know what I'm saying.

Well they are building solar farms and windmills like the clappers where I am.

Any other ideas.

How about not passing laws to damage Poland's emerging wind power initiatives?

Controversial in most eu countries, fact is energy is a strategic resource and gas is "clean fuel" of choice thus expensive, Poland has just started a LNG terminal but costs are not much different, Germany has given Poland a body blow by building a separate pipeline to fulfil its own selfish needs, then vilifying Poland for not burning clean fuels.

So what do we do pay Putin whatever he wants, then if we upset him as part of EU/nat sanctions he turns off the gas in the middle of winter?

Of course one should have nothing to do with Putin if at all possible, vile creature that he is. However, it seems that where Poland's EU partners are concerned, PIS seems to do nothing but try to alienate them and create difficulties, then complain because they're being marginalized.

PIS is doing what PIS said it would do in its manifesto and other things that a government can choose to do, it's the EU that's getting upset at Poland's policies, PIS are riding high in public opinion polls and before long there will be an election where voters can remove PIS from government if they wish.

Fair enoughski. We'll agree to differ. The most important thing in life, I think, is to keep a sense of perspective and to try to foster a bit of goodwill between ourselves rather than discord :))

Ooopps sorry Atch I didn't mean to come across all stern my way or highway kind of thing, I respect we would have differences but we could still have a bit of fun, reading back on my posts i have been guilty of being very clinical in the way I have put my opinion, sorry should have put some light things and smileys in there, I used to have a very technical life, you can understand how clinical boring we can be at times, but I have retired now so no excuse.. sorryski sorryski.

Oh gosh Dolno, no problem. You're a very nice person and I like you very much. We can have a bit of a disagreement about politics and that's fine. I myself have a terrible, condescending bossy boots manner but even if I could change it with huge effort, I'm not sure I want to. It's too much fun :))

Ahh thank you Atch, I think I am suffering a bit of latent PTSD (smiley) from the old Harry (Master Baiter) days.

Atch so you don't criticize the government for the 500+ irresponsible spending, instead you want it to spend even more, interesting

@dolnoslask


It is not like coal-mining does not destroy the environment either. That being said, I believe Poland should invest more in renewable energy. Not only because nuclear energy has a lot of risks, but also because nuclear energy can produce a lot of long-term costs, particulary regarding the safe storage of nuclear waste.

To rely on nuclear energy when a lot of countries have started to reduce nuclear energy as an energy source seems questionable to me. It makes sense for countries like France to rely on nuclear energy long-term because they a) earn money by building nuclear plants in foreign countries and b) have strategic interest in getting ressources for their nuclear weapon programs. Poland on the other hand would have to pay for each plant build in Poland, would have to import nuclear material and would have to pay for its' safe-keeping.

Indeed. Brace yourselves for the next Polish environmental controversy of Govt vs nature (which is how it's being framed internationally, on the back of the Bialowieza disgrace). This is from a news release today:

"Coal mining poses new threat to Aquatic Warbler [one of the most threatened birds in Europe, a bit like a Polish Panda]

A fresh threat to breeding Aquatic Warblers has emerged in Poland's Polesie National Park.

Aquatic Warbler, which is categorised as Vulnerable to Global Extinction on the IUCN Red List, is particularly affected by hydrological changes, including to wetland habitats. The species' global population decreased by more than 90 per cent during the 20th century, and there are currently only 10,200-13,800 singing males left on Earth, breeding in an area of 600 square miles. Now, potential coal mining within a few miles of Bubnów Marsh in Polesie National Park, is putting the species under further threat.

Bubnów Marsh, close to the Polish-Ukrainian-Belarus border, is one of the largest calcareous fen mires in Europe. It is a significant wetland area that survived drainage during the communist era. The marsh is protected by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, is an Important Bird and Biodiversity Area, a Cross-border Biosphere Reserve (Polesie Zachodnie) and a Natura 2000 area. In 2014, 389 singing male Aquatic Warblers were found at the marsh, representing between 3 and 4 per cent of the global population.

The Chief Geologist in Poland has approved a concession for a company that is planning construction of a coal mine near the marsh. In May 2017, during proceedings of the scientific council of Polesie NP, a representative of the company that carried out the exploratory drilling presented the prospects for future coal mining in the vicinity of the marsh. The company plans to dig for coal for approximately 10 years, with local councils and government representatives involved in lobbying in favour of construction of the new mine.

Conservationists have suggested that ecotourism could be a viable alternative source of income in the local area. The National Park was visited by some 44,000 tourists in 2016, and Urszulin Commune, which includes the park, receives grants from the European Union for the promotion and development of tourist infrastructure. They have pointed out that coal mining will have a negative impact on this valuable wetland ecosystem, potentially resulting in the loss of habitats and rare species, including Aquatic Warbler. Mining could also result in the reduction of tourism and a loss of income that would help improve the development of tourism and recreation."

Nuclear probably offers the best future energy for Poland, or more efficient solar, as it has the space but doesn't have the sun (and snow would be a major problem). It doesn't have reliable wind. Gas is too politically unpredictable, coal is too dirty (smog) and liable to future carbon penalties, although it could maybe invest in cleaner coal (trapping emissions underground). I'm not sure about geothermal, and hydroelectric is expensive and probably not suited the rivers and landscape.

With nuclear, building them would be expensive, if done properly, but Poland has vast areas where it could permanently store (i.e. bury and forget) about the waste - UK has used that technology for 50 years. People got skittish about nuclear after Fukushima, including Germany who inexplicably decommissioned their successful plants as a result - that made no sense as Fukushima is built in a tectonically active area, whereas Germany and Poland are about as stable (safe) as anywhere on Earth. The German decision was political (perceived 'greening') rather than scientific or economic. France could build plants in Poland, which would be the natural choice due to historic ties. Although the French might not be keen after the helicopter fiasco. If Poland looked east (China, Russia technology) it would be a huge risk. I'm sure China would leap at the chance, though, but their infrastructure is too young to know if it's reliable. And you really do NOT want a state like China having access to your energy infrastructure.

wrong..coal is.
you might not be aware but....there is a revolutionary technology being invented in Poland,allowing Coal gasification.
we have by far ,largest coal deposits in europe..documented 50 billions tons.
there was already 4 years ago attempted to gasificate 250 tons of coal in Poland in "wieczorek" mine,and they got almost 1 million m3 of gas.
if they succeed to improve this technology,it would make Poland richest country in the world...hell yea!!!!just about time.
British will start flooding Poland ,hoping to find some menial job.
hope it will not end up like with shell gas.lot of hope and big failure at the end.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_coal_gasification

youtube.com/watch?v=waEgPK4MzoM

google.co.uk/search?q=kopalnia+wieczorek+zgazowanie+wegla&safe=strict&rlz=1C1ASVA_enGB772GB772&ei=27hyWsLuH4nRgAbnj6bgAw&start=10&sa=N&biw=1920&bih=949

I've frequently criticized them for it. The money should be spent, but spent differently on the kind of solid community development I mentioned, access to subsidies and services which make a real difference in the long term well being of society.