Ups and downs can I only see on this chart.
"Instead of decreasing the epidemic curve, we've got a sort of plateau," Maria Ganczak, a specialist in epidemiology at the University of Zielona Góra, in western Poland, told the Financial Times." That was back in early June and it hasn't changed since.
What's up with Ireland? The last I checked the R0 had picked up again and was higher than that of Poland
It went up to about 1.28 but it's gone down again, around1.0 I believe. Apparently when you have a low R0 number and then a spike in cases, with a cluster or a couple of clusters for example, the R number rises rather abruptly but it doesn't necessarily mean that the general rate of infection has increased dramatically. The head of the modelling team in Ireland explains it thus:
Broadly speaking the last couple of weeks we've had very low levels of disease, very low case numbers confirmed per day," Nolan said last night.
We'd a particularly low case count in week 26, that's two weeks ago, with only 61 cases in total being confirmed. And then last week we saw a higher number, 93, and at the end of this week we'll probably see around that number again. So the last two weeks, we've seen just a little bit more little bit more incident cases than we saw three weeks ago.
As for Poland, do we know how they arrive at their R number, as in which mathematical model they use? Because it doesn't make sense that Poland, where restrictions are largely lifted and people are no longer observing most precautions, can have a lower transmission rate than Ireland.