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Coronavirus in Poland


mafketis 23 | 8,543
27 Jul 2020 #2,761
@Atch
First, you've got some explaining to do.... how have you never mentioned the magnificent ramblings of Farmer Michael before?

youtube.com/watch?v=d0ByxyIAWrQ

He's a singin' man!

youtube.com/watch?v=i55h7I6GciY

Ringing her will only remind her she used to be loved... decades ago.

Second, the case you mentioned seems like a green swan... and it's not clear what message people are supposed to take away from her case beyond never leaving home again.....

Third, this video needs to be more widely seen:

youtube.com/watch?v=dUOFeVIrOPg

two takeaways (that I've been thinking about for a time, neither of which is very cheery....).

biological (genetic) differences in population have a lot to do with differing death rates in different places

there's a very susceptible portion of the population (of differing sizes in different places) and no matter what governments or individuals do the virus isn't going away until it burns through it....
Tacitus 2 | 1,012
27 Jul 2020 #2,762
the virus isn't going away until it burns through it....

Except it looks like a natural immunity is not an option since antibodies disappear after some time.

Which really sucks because as it turns out I have antibodies in my blood. I suspect that I got in at the end of february when I had what I assumed was a horrible cough. So far it looks like I was lucky but who knows.
johnny reb 24 | 4,293
27 Jul 2020 #2,763
The number one after effect so far has been extreme 'tiredness'.
mafketis 23 | 8,543
27 Jul 2020 #2,764
Numbers..

Fatalities (daily total) 5, age range 57-90, average age 80

Hospitalizations (running total) up 24 to 1625

Ventilators in use up 1 to 69

Cured (daily total) just 103 (weekend?) about 230 less than new cases

Ratio of cured to fatalities (daily) there were 20 times more cured cases than fatalities
Bratwurst Boy 6 | 10,363
27 Jul 2020 #2,765
So far it looks like I was lucky but who knows.

There must be some lucky people...take care!
Joker 1 | 1,458
28 Jul 2020 #2,766
. I suspect that I got in at the end of february when I had what I assumed was a horrible cough

I was sick for about 4-5 days with mild fever and headache. Not very pleasant, but not worse than a previous flu. I guess, I got lucky too.

I cant say I know anyone that has the virus now. Its totally political in the USA, nothing more.
Lazarus 1 | 43
28 Jul 2020 #2,767
I was sick for about 4-5 days with mild fever and headache.

Which test did you have done?

Its totally political in the USA, nothing more.

150,000 deaths is nothing more than political?
mafketis 23 | 8,543
28 Jul 2020 #2,768
Numbers..

Fatalities (daily total) 6, age range 38-85, average age 69

Hospitalizations (running total) up 30 to 1655

Ventilators in use down 8 to 61

Cured (daily total) just 187 (weekend?) over 300 less than new cases

Ratio of cured to fatalities (daily) there were 31 times more cured cases than fatalities..
Bratwurst Boy 6 | 10,363
28 Jul 2020 #2,769
First numbers about longterm complications after a survived infection....

...A study published last month points to associated brain complications, including strokes, that require being admitted to hospital. Of the 125 patients in the study, 77 had a stroke.

Infections have long been known as a risk factor for strokes, but there is some evidence to suggest that if a patient has a stroke while suffering from Covid-19, they are more likely to suffer a worse type of stroke with multiple large artery blockages in the brain, more severe disability and a higher chance of dying of the stroke,....


theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/28/clapped-out-of-icu-dead-days-later-secondary-impact-of-covid-19-stroke-clots-coronavirus
mafketis 23 | 8,543
29 Jul 2020 #2,770
Except it looks like a natural immunity is not an option since antibodies disappear after some time.

No link because it's behind a pay wall, but the New York Times is reporting that antibodies disappearing doesn't necessarily matter (and two widely used tests for corona measure the wrong antibodies).

Apparently virtually everyone who gets it develops T cell responses (important for immunity and they last for years)....

that if a patient has a stroke while suffering from Covid-19, they are more likely to suffer a worse type of stroke

so if you have a stroke when you have coronavirus you might have another stroke?

In other news... the unfortunate man in the article had an Indian name, which reminds me that in the UK those of south Asian origin were disproportionately represented in healthcare worker fatalities... but there hasn't been that much news from the sub-continent itself... is it third world disorganization? corona cant get a toehold among the other endemic diseases?

Though a bit of searching shows that it's growing faster in India than anywhere else....

One of the founding myths of the modern world is that different populations do not differ genetically in any important way... is that going to be another casualty of corona or is the belief too strong?
johnny reb 24 | 4,293
29 Jul 2020 #2,771
the New York Times is reporting

The New York Times is reporting that Russia has developed a vaccine which will be available within two weeks.
Bratwurst Boy 6 | 10,363
29 Jul 2020 #2,772
....I will let others go first, that's for sure!

To many unknowns....

so if you have a stroke when you have coronavirus you might have another stroke?

...you might have a worse stroke. But what's actually meant ist that totally healthy people suffer now strokes, and bad strokes at that!
cms neuf - | 1,667
29 Jul 2020 #2,773
The bad news for Rich In his shed in Central Asia is that Vlad wants to test it out on some prison battalions first

The good news is that anybody who volunteers for the trial gets 3 extra sticks of firewood
Joker 1 | 1,458
29 Jul 2020 #2,774
The bad news for Rich In his shed in Central Asia

Is probably much nicer that the dump you live in. haha
Bratwurst Boy 6 | 10,363
29 Jul 2020 #2,775
PS: More numbers....

Now a study by Uniklinik Frankfurt has found that about 78% of infected people suffer heart damages, which stay even when cured...(the patients had an average age of 49 years)

bild.de/ratgeber/2020/ratgeber/corona-studie-aus-frankfurt-bei-78-prozent-der-genesenen-bleiben-herzschaeden-72117198.bild.html

The study in English:

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
mafketis 23 | 8,543
29 Jul 2020 #2,776
Numbers...

Fatalities (daily total) 12, age range 33-90, average age 68

Hospitalizations (running total) up 32 to 1687

Ventilators in use up 5 to 66

Cured (daily total) just 147, which is 375 less than new cases found

Ratio of cured to fatalities (daily) there were just 12 times more cured cases than fatalities.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,254
29 Jul 2020 #2,777
What's worrying me is that Poles appear to have forgotten about social distancing already. There's quite a few news reports over the weekend showing people crowding in places like the seaside, on popular mountains (10,000 in one day on Śnieżka!) and in places close to cities, as well as people disregarding all common sense at weddings and so on.

From my perspective, avoiding large gatherings of people indoors seems like a no brainer, as well as avoiding large queues.
jon357 63 | 15,068
29 Jul 2020 #2,778
What's worrying me is that Poles appear to have forgotten about social distancing already.

We went away at the weekend, and in Kielce we didn't se much social distancing.
Atch 17 | 3,234
29 Jul 2020 #2,779
Poles appear to have forgotten about social distancing already.

They forgot about it weeks ago Delph. Hence the following:


  • The virus is still as active as ever.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,038
29 Jul 2020 #2,780
Ups and downs can I only see on this chart. The number has never crossed the 600 novel cases daily line (yet).
mafketis 23 | 8,543
29 Jul 2020 #2,781
And the hospitalization rate has not increased significantly (yet) I was expecting to go over 1700 or maybe 1800 a week or so ago and it hasn't yet.

The more you test the more cases you find (esp asymptomatic) the more 'ogniska' you find (which has driven a lot of testing lately) the more asymptomatic cases or cases with mild symptoms you find....

That said, I'm puzzling about the decline in cured cases over the last few days (after about a month of strong numbers). My guess is that it's catching up to the lower hospitalization rate.

They forgot about it weeks

What's up with Ireland? The last I checked the R0 had picked up again and was higher than that of Poland (for july 20)
Atch 17 | 3,234
29 Jul 2020 #2,783
Ups and downs can I only see on this chart.

"Instead of decreasing the epidemic curve, we've got a sort of plateau," Maria Ganczak, a specialist in epidemiology at the University of Zielona Góra, in western Poland, told the Financial Times." That was back in early June and it hasn't changed since.

What's up with Ireland? The last I checked the R0 had picked up again and was higher than that of Poland

It went up to about 1.28 but it's gone down again, around1.0 I believe. Apparently when you have a low R0 number and then a spike in cases, with a cluster or a couple of clusters for example, the R number rises rather abruptly but it doesn't necessarily mean that the general rate of infection has increased dramatically. The head of the modelling team in Ireland explains it thus:

Broadly speaking the last couple of weeks we've had very low levels of disease, very low case numbers confirmed per day," Nolan said last night.

We'd a particularly low case count in week 26, that's two weeks ago, with only 61 cases in total being confirmed. And then last week we saw a higher number, 93, and at the end of this week we'll probably see around that number again. So the last two weeks, we've seen just a little bit more little bit more incident cases than we saw three weeks ago.

thejournal.ie/ireland-reproduction-number-5146622-Jul2020/

As for Poland, do we know how they arrive at their R number, as in which mathematical model they use? Because it doesn't make sense that Poland, where restrictions are largely lifted and people are no longer observing most precautions, can have a lower transmission rate than Ireland.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,038
29 Jul 2020 #2,784
the epidemic curve, we've got a sort of plateau

'Lateral (sideways) trend' it is called on a stock exchange. And such a trend is enjoyed on most of the stock exchanges in the world for most of the time.
mafketis 23 | 8,543
29 Jul 2020 #2,785
That was back in early June and it hasn't changed since.

Hospitalization rates at the beginning of June were over 2000.... since July 7 it hasn't cracked 1700... It's decreasing just very very slowly....

I was actually thinking of plateaus earlier today, there's a long plateau and then a small drop and then a new plateau....
Atch 17 | 3,234
29 Jul 2020 #2,786
It's decreasing just very very slowly....

Ah for God's sake............

there's a long plateau and then a small drop and then a new plateau....




mafketis 23 | 8,543
29 Jul 2020 #2,787
I meant hospitalizations ( which I'm interested in) not in 'active cases' when most of them aren't very sick....
Atch 17 | 3,234
30 Jul 2020 #2,788
most of them aren't very sick....

I see your point, but as long as the virus is being transmitted so actively within the community, you will continue to see a minority of people becoming very ill and many unnecessary deaths.

It seems that the Polish government has decided that it will just ignore the virus until a vaccine is found. They're no longer bothering to put the message out that we need to avoid large gatherings, keep our physical distance (public transport in Warsaw is a joke at present, people crammed in like sardines) and they're not doing anything to ensure that people comply with the few remaining restrictions. The Polish public have consequently become complacent and think that because we don't see dead bodies piled up in the street, it doesn't really matter and that there's no threat. But the more people crowd together, the stronger the hold the virus has and the harder it will be to eliminate it even when there is a vaccine. Proper public health policy is to continue to work to keep the transmission rate as low as possible.
mafketis 23 | 8,543
30 Jul 2020 #2,789
a minority of people becoming very ill and many unnecessary deaths.

I dunno... most of the picture I've been forming (from looking at raw numbers and listening to experts and mostly ignoring mass media stuff) is that it's going to run its course and not much that governments do will really change that... (and the primary factor in fatalities are genetic ones that haven't been nailed down yet).

If, as some suspect, it's engineered then normal suppression methods won't work - and we can't shut down the economy indefinitely without killing more people than the virus would....

If month long lock downs didn't stop it (and they didn't they just.... delayed things) then social distancing and masks won't...
cms neuf - | 1,667
30 Jul 2020 #2,790
That's public health policy - but there are other kinds of policy and most people will not accept another lockdown. So what is the sense of stressing about this low number of cases


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