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Coronavirus in Poland


pawian 170 | 11,398
21 Jun 2020 #2,551
In might just be an experiment for what is yet to come.

I just read a text by medical experts - the next pandemia will be much more fatal form human race. We need to change our ways.

that's a given, the only question is when

Fortunately, only our physical bodies will die and perish to ashes. But out souls will find eternal life if we truly believe in it.
cms neuf - | 1,593
21 Jun 2020 #2,552
I think in Poland the population may increase - less road accidents already outweighing deaths and the closed border with Czech is going to cause a mini baby boom in Autumn
Spike31 3 | 1,638
22 Jun 2020 #2,553
I just read a text by medical experts - the next pandemia will be much more fatal

Haha, don't give up on this deadly plague just yet. There are still plenty of coronavirus cult followers to tap on. Just follow the freaks in dust masks to locate their secret gatherings :-D
OP Braveheart16 18 | 195
22 Jun 2020 #2,555
Alarming news from Germany concerning the reproduction rate of Covid19....it would seem that the R number has tripled in just a few days...European leaders will no doubt closely follow this news.
mafketis 23 | 8,410
22 Jun 2020 #2,556
it would seem that the R number has tripled in just a few days..

I'm not sure how the R number can even be measured for coronavirus since a large majority of infections are either asymptomatic or only mild symptoms that don't cause a person to go to a doctor...

Fatality and hospitalization rates (for reasonably advanced societies) are a better metric. For underdeveloped countries with weak healthcare systems (even weaker than Poland) that might not be a good metric.

What are the long term fatality and hospitalization rates?
cms neuf - | 1,593
22 Jun 2020 #2,557
Nobody ever showed me a formula for this r number - Nor has anyone ever shown me an analysis of how accurate r number predictions from a few weeks ago turned out to be in real life.

I'm old enough to remember predictions that aids would reduce the population of the planet by 1/3.
Atch 17 | 3,224
22 Jun 2020 #2,558
Nobody ever showed me a formula for this r number

There isn't one single formula. The number is determined by using different mathematical models.

This link shows some of the models used and the equations for them:
calculate.org.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2018/10/spread-of-disease.pdf

In Ireland they determined the R0 number by calculating it via four different models and at a certain point found that they were all giving a similar answer. The R0 number can certainly be fairly accurate because since Ireland's R0 fell to an average of around 0.5 the number of deaths and hospital cases has dropped dramatically. In Poland, where the R0 hovers around just above 1.0 there is no significant drop in hospital cases or deaths. The disease seems to have stabilized at a certain number for the present but will get worse over the next couple of months.
cms neuf - | 1,593
22 Jun 2020 #2,559
But don't they have more or less the same amount of cases - 30,000 and the same amount of deaths - 2000?

That's after 3 months of this so logically they should have the same infection rate if this model is a formula based on rate of growth of cases.
Crow 139 | 8,620
22 Jun 2020 #2,560
People don't be afraid of Corona. Refuse hijab! World health organization declared half-masks aren't pritection. It's same as you use half condom.
mafketis 23 | 8,410
22 Jun 2020 #2,561
Good time for today's numbers

Fatalities (daily total) 3 - ages 50, 79, 85 = average age 71

Hospitalizations (running total) increase of 22 to 1899

Cured (daily total) 393 which is 97 more than the number of discovered infections... (fifth day in a row with more cured than discovered infections)
amiga500 - | 139
22 Jun 2020 #2,562
Refuse hijab! World health

You have gone mad. Inject some Serbian Amphetamines
Atch 17 | 3,224
22 Jun 2020 #2,563
But don't they have more or less the same amount of cases

If you look at the graph for active cases you'll see how different the profile is for Ireland where the cases have steadily dropped whilst the rate of infection in Poland has been climbing steadily. Today Estonia has put Polish nationals on the quarantine list, restricting their entry along with Romanians and Bulgarians because of the rate of new infections in Poland.





Spike31 3 | 1,638
22 Jun 2020 #2,564
How deadly is the coronavirus?

"The studies I have any faith in are tending to converge around 0.5-1%," says Russell.

"The study, based on seroprevalence data from Geneva, Switzerland, estimates an IFR of 0.6% for the total population"

nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2



Spike31 3 | 1,638
22 Jun 2020 #2,565
German study suggests infections are 10 times the number of confirmed cases

"the researchers put the town's number of known deaths from COVID-19 relative to the larger estimate of local people with a prior infection (...) and applied the rate of 0.37% to country"

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-estimates/german-study-suggests-infections-are-10-times-the-number-of-confirmed-cases-idUKKBN22G1C7
mafketis 23 | 8,410
22 Jun 2020 #2,566
the rate of infection in Poland has been climbing steadi

The rate of _discovery_ has been climbing... there's no indication that most of those discovered are actually very sick.

I'm sure that not even half of those infected have been discovered so far so the more testing the more cases... doesn't say much about how many people will get seriously ill and/or die....
Crow 139 | 8,620
22 Jun 2020 #2,567
You have gone mad. Inject some Serbian Amphetamines

Very well, I won`t insist. But you heard brat Luca from Belarus
Atch 17 | 3,224
23 Jun 2020 #2,568
the more testing the more cases.

Ireland is carrying out more testing than Poland per capita, and the number of new cases has dropped to almost nothing, 59 new cases in the last week compared to Poland's 2,032. With the population of Poland being around eight times that of Ireland, a very crude comparison would suggest that Poland should have well under five hundred cases, if the infection rate is dropping as steeply as it has in Ireland. There is no getting away from the fact that Poland has failed to supress the virus.

@ Spike, the chart you posted doesn't relate to the study in Geneva. In any case, it's far too early to determine the exact fatality rate and it will vary according to demographics etc. We also don't have enough information yet about the long term damage to survivors.

All I do know for definite is that Ireland's annual deaths from flu is around 500 and we're already at 1,700+ deaths from coronavirus, so that's more than three times the rate for flu.

I have a feeling that you're very juvenile or have never experienced serious illness and death in your own immediate circle. Maybe you have but are desperately immature or have a personality disorder that prevents you from understanding the suffering this virus has caused in communities. Only a boy in his early teens trying to sound cool, would make inane comments about the 'corona comedy'.
mafketis 23 | 8,410
23 Jun 2020 #2,569
Ireland is carrying out more testing than Poland per capita

Ireland has a lot more money (per capita) to do that. Ireland has about 3 times the per capita GDP as Poland and as done about 3 times as much testing....

There is no getting away from the fact that Poland has failed to supress the virus.

I can't take a snapshot but go to this page: covid19.healthdata.org/poland

Then go down to daily deaths (per 100,000 residents) click compare and you can compare the Irish and Polish death rates... that might calm you down a bit...

The virus burned through the susceptible population in Ireland relatively quickly... (at times the proportionate death rate in Ireland was over 15 times that of Poland) and so there's not much more damage it can do. Poland managed to flatten the curve which means a longer more protracted existence....

Notably as the number of infections discovered continues to increase hospitalization has been (slowly) falling.
pawian 170 | 11,398
23 Jun 2020 #2,570
There is no getting away from the fact that Poland has failed to supress the virus.

Now, the question arises: would it be hadled more efficiently with another government? Or not, coz certain national traits impose certain outcomes regardless of governments etc.
mafketis 23 | 8,410
23 Jun 2020 #2,571
would it be hadled more efficiently with another government?

Probably.... the Polish government response was inadequate in lots of ways, but it could have been worse.

certain national traits impose certain outcomes regardless of governments etc.

Oh yeah, the Polish and Irish (for example) responses to almost anything will never be that close... the basic values (as measured in cross cultural research) are too different.
OP Braveheart16 18 | 195
23 Jun 2020 #2,572
Mafketis - Ireland has a lot more money (per capita) to do that

That is true on finance but I hope that money is not being used as a reason for not being able to test more people in Poland or any other important aspect. Not sure what the government is saying but it would be inexcusable if they blamed the lack of progress on lack of money.... is anyone challenging the government on what kind of budget is being used on testing/medical care/PPE etc...? What are the scientists saying about current procedures and inparticular the region of Silesia where infection rates continue to be high....

Pawian - Now, the question arises: would it be handled more efficiently with another government?

Well this is a good question, but as COVID19 is new to everyone in all countries, I would expect the same advice is given via WHO or other international health organisations.....therefore if governments followed the basic procedures (money aside) then this would be a good start.....however if governments choose not to listen to their scientists or indeed international scientists and take a different route then this could lead to a spike in numbers.
cms neuf - | 1,593
23 Jun 2020 #2,573
Why is blaming lack of testing on a lack of money so inexcusable? It is a very valid reason - you can't build facilities and hire staff and buy kits out of thin air
mafketis 23 | 8,410
23 Jun 2020 #2,574
There is no getting away from the fact that Poland has failed to supress the virus.

Again, the number of "new" cases with this virus doesn't mean much unless you separate them into at least three groups

asymptomatic - reports no symptoms

mild symptoms - reports mild cold-like symptoms but does not require hospitalization

severe symptoms - requires hospitalization

And nowhere is doing that.

Let's look at hospitalization numbers....

average daily hospitalized rate from April 17-23 = 2618

average daily hospitalized rate from May 17-23 = 2396

average daily hospitalized rate from April 17-23 = 1864

Looks like a significant decline to me....

The day's numbers

Fatalities (daily total) 16 - age range 54-93 = average age 78

Hospitalizations (running total) increase of 37 to 1936

Cured (daily total) 497 which is 197 more than the number of discovered infections... (sixth day in a row with more cured than discovered infections)

And so it goes...
Atch 17 | 3,224
23 Jun 2020 #2,575
And nowhere is doing that.

Not publicly, but you can be sure they are because they need that data in order to find out to what extent the virus is transmitted by asymptomatic people.

(sixth day in a row with more cured than discovered infections)




johnny reb 23 | 4,535
23 Jun 2020 #2,576
BRUSSELS - European Union countries rushing to revive their economies and reopen their borders after months of coronavirus restrictions are prepared to block Americans from entering because the United States has failed to control the scourge, according to draft lists of acceptable travelers seen by The New York Times.

What a slap in the face to Trump.
cms neuf - | 1,593
23 Jun 2020 #2,577
Trump banned incoming flights from Europe back in March.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 434
23 Jun 2020 #2,578
USA wont be banned. Please. NYT is all about the left and scaring people. You think Poland will ban the USA? They will go against the EU if they have to. If for no other reason than to kiss Trumps behind.
Bratwurst Boy 6 | 10,590
23 Jun 2020 #2,579
Alarming news from Germany concerning the reproduction rate of Covid19

The end of the lockdown was to early...ERROR!!!
Spike31 3 | 1,638
24 Jun 2020 #2,580
asymptomatic - reports no symptoms

I propose to do the same for the followers of a cult of coronavirus which is also a very worring type of mental pandemic:

asymptomatic - those who don't panic about the new type of flu with mortality rates similar to that of a common flu

mild symptoms - feeling anxious because of regular mass media brainwashing but are still going to visit their aging mother on the Easter and won't keep a social distance with their wives and kids

severe symptoms - wearing dust masks 24/7 and would also report those who don't wear them. Are in favour of banning any public activity which involves more than 1 person in same place at the same time. They are addicted to online coronavirus counters. They also believe that by seating on their ass at home they are saving lives and are some kind of heroes.


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