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Coronavirus in Poland

Atch 17 | 3,427
4 Jun 2020 #2,401
why fewer Poles have died. I suspect it is this TB shot everyone got in Poland.

We had it in Ireland too.

Polish people just refuse to leave home as they age.

Or they have nowhere to go. I wouldn't be too quick to celebrate the lack of care facilities for old people in Poland. I think you'll find that there are many less fit and active old people struggling to manage on their own or being nursed by family members with all the attendant strains that can cause. There is also a lack of community support in Poland in terms of state subsdised home helps, care workers etc. Next time you see an old person struggling to get their shopping and walk home with a trolley and a walking stick, don't just asume they're doing it because they enjoy their independence. It may be because they have no choice.

Most people in nursing homes in Ireland are in their eighties and more than half of them are over 85, and the majority who enter homes only do so due to serious health problems which put them in the high or maximum dependency category. Irish people are no different to Polish in wanting to remain in their own homes as long as possible but sometimes they just get too frail.

wasn't there a government directive for the marking off of seating for everyone?

And nothing has been done in Warsaw to enforce it. I was on the WKD train today from Warsaw and no seats marked on that either. Tram back in central Warsaw, full to capacity with a sign on the window saying 'Only half the seats are to be occupied'.
Atch 17 | 3,427
4 Jun 2020 #2,402
"R reveals nothing about how many people will be hospitalised or die

I beg to differ. Professor Philip Nolan explained it in very simple terms a few weeks ago in Ireland when the R0 number went down to between 0.4 and 0.8. He's on the National Public Health Emergency Team.

He said if the number climbs to just over 1, the number of cases will rise slowly but if restrictions are reimposed at this point, the disease can be brought back under control.

If the reproduction number were to rise even further to 1.2, reimposed measures three weeks after they were relaxed can control the disease.

An additional increase to 1.6 could bring a "dangerous peak" in cases.

Professor Nolan said this would mean a lot more people in hospital and intensive care.

However, even at this dangerous level, the disease could still be suppressed by bringing back strict restrictions.The projections show that the "real difficulty" comes if the reproductive number goes as high as 2.4."We wouldn't be able to cope with that, quite frankly," he said.

So you see Maf, that R0 number is a good indicator of how much of a strain the health service is likely to be under.
mafketis 24 | 9,385
5 Jun 2020 #2,403
the garbage that they serve up in schools?

Actually in the PRL (and well into the early to mid 1990s) institutional food in Poland was surprisingly good for the simple reason that there was very little to no processed crap.

AFAICT institutions had priority in distribution (since institutional meals were meant to ameliorate the difficulty of buying food in stores) and it was mostly farm to institutional kitchen to the diner... It tended toward the simple and repetitive but was far healthier than the more varied diet people have now...

That's over now.

So you see Maf, that R0 number is a good indicator of how much of a strain the health service is likely to be under.

Only in a vacuum if you don't take the fatality rate (by sub-population) into consideration.

Being very concerned about the R0 number made a lot of sense in March and into April but if we've learned anything it's that the virus is very little danger to most people (while being very dangerous to a small sub-set of the population).

Here's an interesting link:

quote: "randomized antibody tests from all over the world have repeatedly shown many more people have been infected with coronavirus than is revealed by tests for active infection. Many people who are infected with SARS-COV-2 don't even know it"

In this kind of case the R0 is more a curiosity than something you want to actively base health policy on....
johnny reb 28 | 5,324
5 Jun 2020 #2,404
many more people have been infected with coronavirus than is revealed by tests

Which I have suggested from the get go of this thread.
Our governments knew about this HIGHLY contagious virus back in October/November and let it spread on airplanes and cruise ships for FIVE MONTHS before they did anything about it.

There is no doubt more people in the world have been exposed to this virus then not.
Thank you China and our own governments for their slow responses.

Have you seen the garbage that they serve up in schools?

Same in the U.S. delph and there is a reason for serving such crap.
When the school serves fresh fruits and vegetables most of it ends up in the garbage cans so why serve it if the kids won't eat it ?

So to be cost efficient the schools serve pizza, kababs and processed macaroni and cheese.
mafketis 24 | 9,385
5 Jun 2020 #2,405
Fatalities (daily total) 20 up and down continues....

Hospitalizations (running total) 2085 down a little....

Cured numbers haven't been updated since the morning when they were 183... so there might be a big jump tomorrow...
mafketis 24 | 9,385
6 Jun 2020 #2,406
Today's numbers

Fatalities (daily total) 16, average of the 15 cases where age was listed.... 81

Hospitalizations (running total) up 43 to 2128 down a little....

Cured (daily total) 231

the number of new infections seems to be up (576) but 346 of those are from a single mine near Katowice
OP Braveheart16 18 | 253
6 Jun 2020 #2,407
mafketis - 346 of those are from a single mine near Katowice

Any idea what steps are being taken to protect the minors in Katowice....I presume they are unable to isolate and shut down for 2 is it that the minors can be allowed or requested to work in conditions which are bound to infect them with the coal really so important that the management and government are prepared to allow minors to work knowing there is a good chance they will catch the virus and spread it to the wider public.....?
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
6 Jun 2020 #2,408
77 percent of our electricity comes from coal. So it is pretty important
OP Braveheart16 18 | 253
6 Jun 2020 #2,409
Well yes I agree it's pretty important but is it so important that it doesn't really matter which minors catch the virus so long as the coal keeps coming....or are there exceptional protections in place to make sure the minors do not catch the virus.....Need to share all this information with the public....
AntV 2 | 167
6 Jun 2020 #2,410

It's kind of hard to follow all of these numbers. From what you're seeing, overall are the numbers stable, peaking, or declining?
mafketis 24 | 9,385
6 Jun 2020 #2,411
are the numbers stable, peaking, or declining?

fatalities are roughly steady averaging 10-15 cases a day (when you smooth out the daily ups and downs) the average age of fatalities over time is about 75 (81 today). That's generally down from the peak (mid to late April). The highest ever daily fatality rate was I think 40 or so.

Some people theorize that the government is covering up deaths and the fatality rate is higher but there's nothing like proof (and it would be very hard to cover up, especially for the bozos in the current government).

hospitalizations are generally declining from around 2400-2500 when I began tracking them to around 2100-2200 now.

cured cases are a bit below new infections but new infections are a very unhelpful thing to focus on with this virus since a large majority of cases are either asymptomatic or very mild symptoms that people don't consider going to the hospital for...

I'm also assuming that the new cases are just a function of increased testing (since all randomized tests in other countries show far higher numbers of people have had it than previous estimates assumed).
AntV 2 | 167
6 Jun 2020 #2,412

Nice summary. Thanks.
kaprys 3 | 2,505
7 Jun 2020 #2,413
So I have a conspiracy theory I heard last week at the hairdresser's. ;)
Now since there are some people here who seem to follow the situation in more detail than I do, so perhaps you could comment.
A miner had been in the salon several days before. According to what he claimed, the government is just afraid of miners protesting in Warsaw and they want to shut down some more mines. That's why there are tests for miners but not for, let's say, supermarket employees.

The latter had to work from the very beginning of the pandemic, lots of people go shopping - of course fewer than before but still. Have there really been no tests for them?

Have you heard of a lidl or biedronka being closed cause of corona? Has none of their employees got it?
I'm really asking :)
Atch 17 | 3,427
7 Jun 2020 #2,414
That's a very good question. I'm sure there must have been some people infected and maybe even a few workplace clusters. After all in the small town in Ireland where my sister lives, a guy in his 30s who worked in Lidl died quite early on in the outbreak. (He was Polish actually.) Back in March/April, I noticed some regualar staff missing for a few weeks in my local Biedronka. I assumed it was due to childcare issues but I don't know.

@ Maf, where's your downward trend??

First six days of April, 74 deaths
First six days of May, 89 deaths
First six days of June, 88 deaths
mafketis 24 | 9,385
7 Jun 2020 #2,415
where's your downward trend??

Death toll from 4/20-4/26 = 163

Death toll from 6/1-6/6 = 88

Right there.... When we get to another six day period with over 150 deaths then we can say the rates aren't declining...

I saw one reference to an Austrian study that tested a bunch of people working as grocery cashiers and none had contracted the virus (which mostly needs enclosed close contact to be transmitted).

Is there an official result of the Polish lidl employee? Did he die from or with coronavirus?
mafketis 24 | 9,385
7 Jun 2020 #2,416
Today's numbers

Fatalities (daily total) 4, ages 59, 75, 75 and 91 for an average of 75

Hospitalizations (running total) 121 fewer cases, so down to 2007, the lowest rate since March...

Cured (daily total) 214

the number of new infections seems to be high (575) but 325 of those are from a single mine near Katowice
johnny reb 28 | 5,324
7 Jun 2020 #2,417
Today's numbers

I wonder what todays numbers are from the viruses that mosquito's alone carry like West Nile virus, Zika virus, Chikungunya virus, Dengue, Malaria, Denque fever, Chikagunya virus, St. Louis encephilitus, Yellow fever, Lymes decease and a bunch more.

We're all gonna die for sure.
cms neuf 1 | 1,852
7 Jun 2020 #2,418
Just a question of when not if... Keith Richards
Roibeard79 2 | 42
7 Jun 2020 #2,420
but 325 of those are from a single mine near Katowice

Is that correct? You added the same info yesterday re the same mine?
mafketis 24 | 9,385
7 Jun 2020 #2,421
Yep the mine is ZofiĆ³wka
Bratwurst Boy 9 | 10,632
7 Jun 2020 #2,422
Very interesting...

Blood group type may affect susceptibility to COVID-19 respiratory failure

A group of over 120 researchers from various institutions across Europe has performed the first genome-wide association study to reveal host genetic factors that may contribute to respiratory failure in cases of coronavirus disease 209 (COVID-19).....

That could explain why even some young and healthy individuals suffer a worse course of the disease, even death, than many older and sick people who survive....

"Our data thus aligns with the suggestions that blood group O is associated with lower risk compared with non-O blood groups whereas blood group A is associated with higher risk of acquiring Covid-19 compared with non-A blood groups," the authors state.
Chemikiem 7 | 2,509
8 Jun 2020 #2,423
Very interesting.

It is, and something else to think about. There have been studies done before, in both Wuhan and New York which corroborate these latest findings. I have A+ blood which isn't good news........
Atch 17 | 3,427
8 Jun 2020 #2,424
@Bratwurst Boy, yes,very interesting.

Another interesting fact is that the coal miners in Silesia account for only 20% of current cases. So the epidemic is still very much with us despite the government's claims to have it under control. The other important thing is that those infected miners have spread it amongst the wider community.

PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
8 Jun 2020 #2,425
20% is not the number according to multiple other sources. The majority of cases now come from Silesia and the mines. Hence the now 3 week closure of 12 mines. PiS isnt so stupid as to alienate a massive voter group at this time by shutting down the mines if they didn't have to. The reports per Voivodeship clearly show the correct numbers.
mafketis 24 | 9,385
8 Jun 2020 #2,426
Silesia account for only 20% of current cases

In other words the miner cases which are relatively recent now make up 20% of all cases (while being well over fifty percent of new cases in recent days).

On the other hand the hospitalization rate has been trending downward (a more important metric for a virus which only infrequently becomes serious) and the fatality rate clearly peaked (for now, knock on wood) back in middle to late April and is slowly but surely declining.

Number of new cases is mostly a function of how extensive testing is... stop testing - no new cases

Until hospitalization rates start creeping back over 2500 and fatality rates hit over 30 a day (for any three days in a five day period)* I'm not going to be too alarmed at a bunch of asymptomatic or mild cases in Silesia (as long as measures to protect the more vulnerable are taken - though most countries have done a crap job of that).

*both arbitrary numbers, if you have a better metric for deciding if fatality and/or hospitalization rates are concerning then please let us know.

Case in point of the 219 cases announced this morning, 151 are from lower silesia... and 6 voivodeships have reported no new cases (I'm sure most of this will have some later today).

there is a serious problem at present in Silesia but not in the rest of the country...
Bratwurst Boy 9 | 10,632
8 Jun 2020 #2,427
I have A+ blood which isn't good news........

...but you have A+, which seems to be still better than A only!

Now, what is my blood group again? *scratches head*

PiS isnt so stupid as to alienate a massive voter group at this time by shutting down the mines if they didn't have to.

What would be seen as a reason for "now they have to"? Death? And would a shut down to save lifes really make voter angry at PiS???

Lockdowns May Have Averted 3 Million Deaths in Europe by Curbing COVID-19: Study

....The Imperial team estimated that by early May, between 12 and 15 million people in the 11 countries - Austria, Belgium, Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland - had been infected with COVID-19.

By comparing the number of deaths counted with deaths predicted by their model if no lockdown measures had been introduced, they found some 3.1 million deaths were averted....

Joker 2 | 1,787
8 Jun 2020 #2,428
@Bratwurst Boy
I have t-shirts for you now:)

I plan on wearing mine to the next BLM protest to create a more realistic feeling.

The restaurants in Chicagos "Chinatown" will be open this week... Im going for a bike ride through there:)

Bratwurst Boy 9 | 10,632
8 Jun 2020 #2,429
I like the slogan....that fit's not only the virus!

But what have the people in Chinatown to do with that? Aren't most of them descendants of people who fled Red China?

It would be like protesting Merkel's immigrant policy during some US Oktoberfest and blame some american born Bratwurst eater.....
Joker 2 | 1,787
8 Jun 2020 #2,430
@Bratwurst Boy
You're right BB, it's the commie government that I have issues with. There are No such thing as a good commie. all they bring is death and destruction.

I was just joking about riding thru Chinatown. My parents raised me better than that. I guess, I'm lucky I had parents.
You can see how the " baby daddy " generation and kids growing up without fathers can really destroy a country.

Look at our current protesters. Mostly uneducated, refuse to work, blames everyone else for their problems.

Sorry, wandered OT. I regress.

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