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Coronavirus in Poland

24 May 2020 #2,251
silly polish girl , they updated the cnn article after backlash, but basically she refused to leave because she had no 'home to go to' . typical child of the polish elite. oxford accent, self obsessed. flies out to yemen in a middle of a pandemic and stays behind. no thought of her elderly grandparents or anyone else apart from making her videos.
kondzior 12 | 1,200
24 May 2020 #2,252
It happens all around the world. There are idiots crying about how the lockdown is causing them mental anguish, others crying about losing their pron revenue, etc. A generation of cottonwool is not likely to handle a wetting well.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
25 May 2020 #2,253
Idiots crying about the lockdown who used to employ your neighbors who now can not afford to eat? You mean those idiots who are responsible for the majority of jobs and tax revenue generation in the country? Those same idiots who fund ZUS and pay for everyone else's retirement now?
kondzior 12 | 1,200
25 May 2020 #2,254
There is no one who now can not afford to eat, and unemployment isn't a reason to kill yourself, unless perhaps you're some sort of retard boomer whose entire life is defined through his job. The economy will rebound.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
25 May 2020 #2,255
The experts are saying two years for it to get back to where it was. Lets talk economics because Poland's economy absolutely depends on foreign money in several forms. People are already publicly complaining about seriously rising costs of food. Farmers are complaining they wont be able to harvest all their crops because of a lack of temporary labor. Take off your rose colored PiS stained glasses and see what is really happening in the country. More than 600 existing business operations in Krakow alone have gone up for sale in the last 60 days. Commercial rental prices in are crashing, and in case you missed it the Zloty is getting killed in the currency market. But yes, the economy will rebound, in about two years.
mafketis 24 | 9,370
25 May 2020 #2,256
the economy will rebound, in about two years

Meanwhile, a total of three people have died since Saturday.... (three reported Sunday and none reported so far today - the government releases figures mid-morning and late afternoon so we'll see what happens around 18.00 today.

I can believe that PiS would try to fudge the numbers but there's no evidence of that (so far) and the medical establishment would not cooperate in anything supporting PiS since the party has been so disastrous for healthcare...
Cargo pants 2 | 853
25 May 2020 #2,257
Yeah,what site do you check at?I used but now they dont have a graph so I am using this one;
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
25 May 2020 #2,258
And that is great news. The AP just reported first time in Poland no deaths in 24 hours during pandemic. Great news indeed, and falls in line with lifting of restrictions. PiS people are not dumb, they know the disaster has yet to truly unfold financially, once it does, all is lost. I said months ago, once the crisis is over, it takes 6 months for true recovery to begin, the experts say 2 years for recovery to bring the country back to previous numbers, so those things are in line. A second wave of this would be beyond devestating.
Cargo pants 2 | 853
25 May 2020 #2,259
it takes 6 months for true recovery to begin

I say more,remember what happened in NYC and surrounding States after 9/11,I compare that now that 9/11 happened almost in every country.6 months will be when the crisis really starts,look at the restaurants,first there capacity is cut by almost 50% and the customers are also less then 50% of the that.I see them already working with skeleton crew and most people from outside Warsaw have not even come back.Even some of the local C Stores are closing early and on Sundays(Some had permission to open on Sundays)
mafketis 24 | 9,370
25 May 2020 #2,260
Yeah,what site do you check at?I

next to the updated figures there's a yellow button 'zobacz szczegółowy raport'

the page takes a while to load but they have a bunch of graphs that are updated daily (the hospitalization rates were just updated and they've been below 2300 for the past few days...

the next fatality announcement will probably be at around 18.00...
Cargo pants 2 | 853
25 May 2020 #2,261
Thanks,got it,yeah its usually 10ish in the morning then 6ish and then midnight.
mafketis 24 | 9,370
25 May 2020 #2,262
Current numbers....

After no fatalities announced overnight (24 hours with no deaths) 11 died today, the ages range from 61-999 and the average age is 74.9 years...

Hospitalization numbers continue to fall... and now stand at 2268 (up 26 from Sunday).

The 10-15 fatalities a day rate continues while the hospitalization seems now under 2300 (from a total of just over 3000 back in April).
xiaobai - | 1
26 May 2020 #2,263

Many Twitter users said they were infected with COVID-19 very early

Many Twitter users said they were infected with COVID-19 very early

mafketis 24 | 9,370
26 May 2020 #2,265
Today's numbers

Fatalities up and hospitalization down....

Fatalities (daily total) unfortunately 17 deathshave been recorded, the ages range from 60-95 and the average age is 79.6 years...

Hospitalization numbers continue to fall... and now stand at 2171 (down 97 from yesterday's 2268.

If I had to hazard a guess, the high risk patients (elderly mostly with comorbidities) are continuing to die and most new cases are asymptomatic or relatively mild.

The fatality to discovered case rate (in comparison with other countries) would probably indicate that only half or less of infections have been detected so far (because they are mild or asymptomatic).
Atch 17 | 3,427
27 May 2020 #2,266
John Hopkins University has done a very interesting analysis of the mortality rate of Covid-19. In the ten most affected countries,it ranges from 16.2% in Belgium to 5.9% in the US, which means that per 100 confirmed cases, there have been 16.2 deaths in Belgium and 5.9 deaths in the US. The mortality rate for Poland is 4.7. So I think we can say conclusively that the mortality for Covid-19 is significantly higher than flu.

mafketis 24 | 9,370
27 May 2020 #2,267
16.2% in Belgium to 5.9% in the US

Does it control for things like average age of death and care home population?

Belgium has one of the highest care home populations in Europe and completely bungled the challenge of protecting care home residents...

In NYC in absolute numbers there were almost twice as many people aged 75 or over as under 75.... (again in absolute numbers not percentages).

Ireland has (in percentage terms) 3.5 times more care home beds than Poland... so it's not surprising that the results have been so much worse than in Poland...

All the evidence so far shows that coronavirus is extremely dangerous to the elderly especially those in closed environments and not so dangerous to the rest of the population. A few younger cases are statistical outliers and while tragic and unfortunate it's not a basis for sound public policy.

Saner policy would be to try to protect the vulnerable while not destroying the economy for everybody else.
Atch 17 | 3,427
27 May 2020 #2,268
I just did a quick comparison of the death rates per 100,000 from Covid-19 against the deaths per 100,000 for flu, and it's potentially between double and five times higher. There are a few cases where it's the same or lower because it hasn't really taken hold. For example in Poland there have been far fewer cases than in some other European countries so overall the deaths per 100,000 have been lower than flu. Interestingly in Sweden the death rate for Covid-19 is 39.57 deaths per 100,000 compared to their flu rate of 15.57.

Does it control for things like average age of death and care home population?

That's a good question. It doesn't say so, so I don't think it does and that's a very fair point. But having said that when you compare the mortality rates for flu on the same basis, without allowing for age, clusters etc, then coronavirus still comes out significantly higher. Sweden is a good example because they haven't locked down so severely and the virus has had a chance to spread and the mortality rate is more than double that of flu.
Atch 17 | 3,427
27 May 2020 #2,269
Great news- from Saturday 30 May, it's no longer necessary to wear a face mask outdoors.
johnny reb 28 | 5,302
27 May 2020 #2,270
I just did a quick comparison of the death rates per 100,000 from Covid-19

The death rate in the U.S.A. just hit a 100,000 !
Joker 2 | 1,767
27 May 2020 #2,271
It could have all been prevented if the commie chinks weren't sneaky liars.

longer necessary to wear a face mask outdoors.

its kind of redundant wearing it outside. I want the fresh air.

Many Twitter users

These chinks should be banned from twitter
mafketis 24 | 9,370
27 May 2020 #2,272
Today, unlike yesterday when fatalities were up and hospitalizations down.... deaths are down and hospitalizations have increased

Fatalities (daily total) unfortunately 4 deaths, down from 17 (age range 75-80)

Hospitalization numbers increased 149 and are now at 2320 (from yesterday's 2171).
johnny reb 28 | 5,302
27 May 2020 #2,273
Here is a stat about the effects of the virus that are not in the death equation.
Doctors at a hospital in California say they have recorded more deaths from suicide than coronavirus, with a year's worth of suicides and suicide attempts being recorded in a 4 week period.

The suicides emphasize the potential scale of the untold impact the lockdown has had on mental health as people are further atomized and ostracized from friends and family.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 590
28 May 2020 #2,274
@johnny reb
Terrible statistic. I think you're right though and there are probably similar stats everywhere. Chilling how little thought went into so much of the reaction to this.
Chemikiem 7 | 2,497
28 May 2020 #2,275
A bit more news on the easing of coronavirus restrictions in Poland:

As Atch said previously, from May 30th facemasks don't have to be worn outside, but still obligatory on public transport, in shops, churches, offices etc

Also from May 30th, no limits as to how many people can shop or dine at restaurants but sanitary measures will still apply. Open-air fitness grounds and playgrounds will reopen, as will hotels. Public gatherings such as weddings, and live performances will be allowed, but no more than 150 people, and social distancing applies or masks will have to be worn.

July 6th will see swimming pools, fitness clubs, cinemas and theatres reopening.
johnny reb 28 | 5,302
28 May 2020 #2,276
In one cruise ship Chinavirus outbreak, more than 80% of people who tested positive for the Chinavirus did not show any symptoms of the disease, according to a new paper published in the journal Thorax.

Another tid bit is that the N95 masks are worthless to others as they only filter the air while inhaling but not the air that you exhale.

On top of that most of the face masks that are being worn are worn incorrectly and are ineffective.
I also read that a survey taken that most of the people will be refusing any vaccine for at least a year to see the effects of the first round of guinea pigs that it is used on.
mafketis 24 | 9,370
28 May 2020 #2,277
Todays numbers! Still up and down, the fatality rate increased and the hospitalization rate decreased

There were 10 fatalities (average age 75) up from four yesterday

Hospitalizations (running total) are down 22 to 2248 from 2320 yesterday.

New plauteau is around 2300 hospitalizations and 10 fatalities
Atch 17 | 3,427
28 May 2020 #2,278
Thanks Maf. If you take a look at this graph which is up to date, you can see that there is really no drop in the rate of infection in Poland. The same number of new cases per day as there was a couple of months ago.

For comparison, below Poland I've put the graph of Ireland where the virus is now at 0.4 - 0.5 R0 and therefore supressed within the community.

mafketis 24 | 9,370
28 May 2020 #2,279
The same number of new cases per day as there was a couple of months ago.

Case numbers are essentially an effect of testing... Poland's low rate of testing guarantees the same number of new cases for a looong time. Since the majority of new cases are asymptomatic or have only very mild symptoms a high number of new cases isn't that big a deal IMO...

This is why I think hospitalization and fatalities are a better thing to track. Both of those are indisputably (if slowly) trending downward from a high over 30 a day in April to 10 or so a day and hospitalization is now hovering around 2300 down from 3000.
Atch 17 | 3,427
28 May 2020 #2,280
Fair enough, but with restrictions lifted and borders opened, unfortunately there is a significant risk that those figures, hospitalizations and fatalities, will increase again and quite quickly.

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