If nothing changes
Just bear in mind, what's relevant is not the absolute number of cases or even death rates unless you have access to data usually kept out of the news but the percentage of cases that need hospitalization (usually well hidden in the media coverage) but a friend of a friend works in the hospital dealing with coronavirus patients in a large city and ... they haven't been overwhelmed at all.
there are some hugely difficult questions ahead.
I'm inclined to not judge western governments too harshly for overreacting in the early stages (it did seem a lot scarier than it turned out to be) or even in re-opening too slowly (bureaucratic inertia - it's always harder to undo something than to do it in the first place).
Now I'm beginning to wonder about conspiracy theories that the Chinese government knew that it wasn't that dangerous and did everything it could to create the impression that it was trying to cover up how deadly it was for economic reasons - they knew they had a big economic slowdown coming and they wanted the rest of the world to share in it....
Not the craziest theory I've heard (and there's not much that I would think is too underhanded for the CCP)..... I'm not there yet, but....