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Coronavirus in Poland


Atch 17 | 3,224
24 Apr 2020 #1,711
Early on it seemed maybe it was super-contagious

One of the main problems in Poland is that the government isn't providing the public with proper, detailed information regarding the status of the virus. I rely on the Irish news for my take on what's going on because the Irish health service holds a press conference every day and the doctors in charge of managing the epidemic give the latest information and answer questions. By looking at the Irish news I get an idea of what stage the virus might be at in Poland at the moment.

I KNOW that in Ireland the transmission rate is now down to R0 .5 among the general population but it's still growing in nursing homes. That means the virus is supressed and under control in the general population so restrictions can start to be lifted. Bear in mind that Ireland didn't close its borders though it discourages non-essential travel, nor are people wearing face masks but people over 70 are cocooning and the rest of the population can only go 2km from home except for food shopping or visiting the doctor.

We don't know what the R0 number is in Poland. Let's assume it's not too bad and restrictions can begin to be lifted. Here's the expected result, based on detailed analysis by the Irish health service:

rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0423/1134475-covid-19-latest-expert-projections-explained/

Because the Polish government isn't implementing a sufficient safety net and support plan for businesses, they will have to open places like shopping centres and restaurants sooner than Ireland and I can't see people in Poland carrying on wearing face masks throughout the heat of the summer. It's outrageous to expect them to. So what are Poland's projections?? We don't know, as usual..........
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
24 Apr 2020 #1,712
@Atch

Good points. The math here though is rather easy if you take some time. The daily numbers are reported, and watching the news and reading news tells you where these clusters are. Three more clusters in care centers yesterday. Eliminate those clusters and there were just over 200 new infections yesterday. Clearly the numbers are on the decline. This is a political control move on the election and nothing more.

When hair salons are slated to open again on the 4th or 11th, with human to human physical contact, its pretty clear they know its safe to go outside. With multiple reports now that the virus is killed quickly in sunlight, these masks on days that are sunny and in the 20's are completely just control items.

How it is effecting business in Krakow? Five new eateries for sale in last 24 hours. Price drops on other commercial real estate for rent at 50% of last advertising. Some realtors dont even remember to remove the old advertising.
Atch 17 | 3,224
24 Apr 2020 #1,713
Three more clusters in care centers yesterday.

How many clusters are in Poland at the moment?

Some realtors dont even remember to remove the old advertising.

That's very common on the residental market too and clearly demonstrates the random nature of the pricing. Earlier this year before the virus hit, I saw a listing of a small house for sale at 395,000 and further down the same page there it was updated two days later, same agent, price 515,000 - laughable.

As to the virus, looking at the global picture, it's clearly very contagious but most dangerous to the elderly and those with compromised immune systems and should be handled accordingly. As the Irish news reminds us every day, 80% of cases in the general population are mild to moderate, 14% are serious and may require hospital treatment, 6% are critical and require admission to intensive care. But even in nursing homes, the recovery rate is greater than the fatality rate.
dolnoslask 5 | 2,845
24 Apr 2020 #1,714
Ireland the transmission rate is now down to R0 .5

So is it probably better to be in Ireland than Poland at me moment ?,I might get a place there if things get worse in Poland.
Atch 17 | 3,224
24 Apr 2020 #1,715
What I'd like to know is, for Poland what are the following stats for today 24 April 2020:

What is the rate of transmission for the general population, the R0 number? That is, how many people does one infected person currently infect?

What's the breakdown of clusters? Where are they located and how many?

What's the fatality rate for clusters?

What's the fatality rate for the general population?

How many tests are being carried out per day in clusters and when will those tests be completed?

What's the percentage of infected people currently in ICU?

On 19 April the Polish minister for health said that Poland is still in the early stages of epidemic which suggests very poor management, considering that borders have been closed for so long and movement restricted. Also, how can you begin to lift restrictions if an epidemic is still in the early stages?? Covid-19 is nearly as much of a pantomime in Poland as Brexit was in the UK.
mafketis 23 | 8,381
24 Apr 2020 #1,716
they are Commies so they won't do that

So stop supporting them economically!!!!
cms neuf - | 1,588
24 Apr 2020 #1,717
I am not supporting "them" - I am doing business with individual Chinese who have nothing to do with the government, or I am buying basically essential items like a plate or a mug or a penknife and not bothering to look where it is made because I don't care.

Philip Morris and KFC kill plenty of Poles but am I supporting "them" whenever I use Google, bank with Citi or wear a Timex watch ?
dolnoslask 5 | 2,845
24 Apr 2020 #1,718
What I'd like to know is,

Well yes you would , but you must know that the transparency you are looking for just does not exist in Poland , no matter which political idiots are in power, Poland is based on bureaucracy and idiots with "Job titles" who consider above reproach and question.

The above crap runs from the local shop keeper to the very top, and no one will change it any time soon , you cannot expect to get the transparency and information you wish for here in "Poland". UK , Ireland no problem .

So is Ireland a good go to place if all falls apart here in Poland?.
mafketis 23 | 8,381
24 Apr 2020 #1,719
What is the rate of transmission for the general population, the R0 number?

Don't say I never did anything for you...

trackingr-env.eba-9muars8y.us-east-2.elasticbeanstalk.com/

You can track the world and individual country R0 rates to your heart's content...

On April 23 it was 1.21 for Poland and .83 for Ireland

I'm not entirely sure what particular benefit using the figure in public gives I have the impression it's a toy the Irish government is giving armchair epidemiologists to play with...

the transparency you are looking for just does not exist in Poland

True...
Atch 17 | 3,224
24 Apr 2020 #1,720
I'm not entirely sure what particular benefit using the figure in public gives

Because it's factual information which tells the public clearly what the present rate of transmission is among the general population and therefore to what extent the outbreak is under control. It needs to be below R0 before you can begin to lift restrictions and in Poland it's still above 1.0.

You can track the world and individual country R0 rates to your heart's content...

Thank you :)

So is Ireland a good go to place

When this pandemic palaver is done with, you should pay a visit and judge for yourself :)
Crow 139 | 8,583
24 Apr 2020 #1,721
Mind-blowing > Serbia offers to EU help in medical and protection equipment > ``Just name it and you have it in 12 hours,`` said Serbian President Vucic >>

s

Chief of EU delegation in Serbia Sem Fabrici and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic

surce:
Vučić: "Mi smo ponudili pomoć EU; Srbija je posvećena evropskom putu" VIDEO
google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=serbia+offers+help+to+eu
johnny reb 23 | 4,497
24 Apr 2020 #1,722
the transparency you are looking for just does not exist in Poland

Nor does it exist in China, the United States or any other country in the world.
It is a huge political pawn right now and they will use it for all it is worth to their advantage.
Here is a good example of what they are trying to hide.

Now it is estimated that 1.3 million people in New York have had it.

That was yesterday and that figure was jumped on by the media.
Today the mayor of New York said that one in five people in New York have been exposed to it making the figure 2.7 million, double what they were just saying yesterday.

They are admitting this now and my bet is that those numbers are at least double that.
And by next year at this time most everyone in the world will have been exposed to this virus and have it in their systems.

They knew this from the get go when they were saying that they just wanted to flatten the curve so the healthcare system would not implode like it did in Italy.

Now that the medical equipment and testing kits are being made at mock speed there should be no shortage when the second wave hits this winter.

By the time an unknown vaccine is found we all will have natural immunities build up in our bodies where getting booted up with one of god knows what into our body will do more harm then good.

Life is good. :-)
Crow 139 | 8,583
24 Apr 2020 #1,723
Nor does it exist in China, the United States or any other country in the world.

I concur.
cms neuf - | 1,588
24 Apr 2020 #1,724
Kids are off school until 24th May. I think the most simple thing would be to take them to the office, put them in a corner with their tablets and some Lego and get on with work.
johnny reb 23 | 4,497
24 Apr 2020 #1,725
Here in Michigan it is even a bigger joke.
-- Detroit kids learning at home will get free tablet computers and internet as part of a $23 million initiative to "bridge the digital divide" for the city's 51,000-student public school district. --

These are at large all Black schools.

WTF !
How about the rest of the White kids in the State of Michigan ! How about them ?????
What a waste of $23 million as most of those tablets will within 30 days get broke or sold so Daddy can get a bag of smoke and watch p orn all day.

Why do you think those kids don't have a tablet or wi-fi to begin with ?
Why should the rest of the Michigan kids north, for 500 miles, of Detroit have to pay for their internet and tablets to learn with ?
This is like saying all the jewish kids in Poland get free tablets and Wi-Fi but the Polish children get nothing.
Hey Dirk, lets talk about a tad of RACISM here.
cms neuf - | 1,588
24 Apr 2020 #1,726
Yes I am wondering how PiS will deal with the growing discontent from the 9 million people in Poland who work for a living.

When this has finished there will be debts and an economy to rebuild - I think we all understand that and probably it will require tax increases and spending cuts. However the government cannot then go on splashing cash handouts to the large families and old people of Polska B and expect the working people to foot the bill.

They burnt the firewood during the summer and now even in March have run up an extra PLN 75bn of government debt - April will be even worse.
mafketis 23 | 8,381
24 Apr 2020 #1,727
the government cannot then go on splashing cash handouts to the large families and old people of Polska B

That's why they're so desperate to get Duda "reelected".... once he's safe they'll turn off the faucet...
NoToForeigners 10 | 1,062
24 Apr 2020 #1,728
@mafketis
Desperate? LOL. Main contender to Duda is Kosiniak with like 11%. Kidawa is 4%. It's the leftards who are desperate to postpone elections coz they ******* suck

Leftards are all about KĄSTYTUCJA! Polish Constitution says that you can't postpone elections. Polish leftards ( you know the ones that fight for KĄSTYTUCJA when it fits their claims) try to force Polish govt to force state of emergency on us so we can postpone elections but the very same CONSTITUTION those leftard morons claim to defend says that the govt can implement the state of emergency ONLY when the country cannot work, don't have money and it's impossible for it to fight the crisis. IT IS NOT THE CASE!!! We have money to help industry, we have hospitals, we have police and fire guard. We cannot just call the state of emergency simply to postopne elections (ITS FORBIDDEN BY CONSTITUTION). If you want to postpone those you have to change constitution and leftards are against it. So basically leftards in Poland are against one and another. They're just against anything that could solve the problem. They thrive when there's a problem. They don't care about solving it.
dolnoslask 5 | 2,845
24 Apr 2020 #1,729
you should pay a visit and judge for yourself :)

That's not the question that I was asking , visiting is different to living especially in a crisis , never mind.
mafketis 23 | 8,381
24 Apr 2020 #1,730
Polish Constitution says that you can't postpone elections

The Polish Constitution soes not provide for a phony "stan pandemii" which is a de facto Stan Znadzwyczajny but PiS true to its PRL roots and ethos is trying to figure out a way to hold phony "elections" so they can keep their snouts in the trough....

PiS = PRL-owskie bezprawie, komuchy żądne władzy za wszelką cenę...
kondzior 10 | 1,021
24 Apr 2020 #1,731
I am doing business with individual Chinese

I see it now. Is that why you're sucking Winnie Flu's so hard? Are the social credit systems monitoring and evaluating your online activity? Wink twice if you're being blackmailed.
Atch 17 | 3,224
24 Apr 2020 #1,732
never mind.

Gosh you sound grumpy. Don't be cross. I thought you were being facetious and also I don't want to go into one of my 'Oireland, sure tis a great little country altogether, so it is' eulogies on a thread about Coronavirus in Poland.

However, to answer your question briefly, yes Ireland is a very good place to live on the whole. Quality of life is very good, air is clean, roads are safe, democracy is strong, community spirit is strong, people are friendly and kind and the craic really is great. And yes, in a time of crisis it's probably one of the best places in the developed world to be because both the government and the community are very quick to mobilize and there is a lot of support both financial and moral.

Downsides include the weather, the cost of living which is very high, limited job opportunities outside Dublin, rise in violent crime in recent years but still one of the safest countries in the world, rubbish public transport system outside Dublin.

For a retired person with a few quid, it's a good place to live and it's very beautiful because no matter where you are, the sea or a lake or river are only a few miles away.
johnny reb 23 | 4,497
24 Apr 2020 #1,733
visiting is different to living especially in a crisis

Doesn't matter at this point dolno.
Once people come to realize that we have "No Choice" with mass poverty and death on our door step.
This has just started and going to get a whole lot worse.
The virus has taken 50,000 now in the United States and put countless on the welfare dole.
Food and welfare money will eventually run out for those living in poverty.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
24 Apr 2020 #1,734
Polish Constitution says that you can't postpone elections.

The Polish constitution makes it clear that a state of emergency is enough to postpone them. But you wouldn't understand that, because like a good PiS slave, you're willing to ignore any and all logic just so you can become the deputy director of the local rubbish dump.

We have money to help industry

You mean the government have printed 79bn PLN so far.

Everyone knows Duda has no chance if the elections are delayed, hence why PiS are trying to steal the election.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
25 Apr 2020 #1,735
Poland has such an epidemic that it makes sense to send doctors to the United States? If it is so bad, wouldn't those doctors be needed in Poland? Meanwhile Belgium is announcing plans to reopen the country, one third the size of Poland with more deaths. In Belgium no cafe's, or bars etc. will open until Mid June.

Poland orders borders to remain closed until May 15. By this timeline the soonest we will likely see things return to some new normalcy is probably July. If this is the case, the economy in Poland, and anywhere else taking similar measures, will be destroyed to a point that it will take a decade or more to recover.

Yes, there is a virus. But these measures, according to other experts will soon begin to effect the food supply. The next wave after the virus, could be starvation. People were complaining about food costs going up before. Imagine how they will rise with a shortage combined with inflation.

Meanwhile, my Polish company gets 5000 pln for free just to not close up for three months. Technically a loan, but no repayment as long as it stays open for the next three months. Pays my ZUS and accounting fee's for three months. Basically, they are funding the government if other people take a similar approach. Another subvention program gives more money. How does all of this shield money eventually get paid for?
delphiandomine 85 | 18,266
25 Apr 2020 #1,736
How does all of this shield money eventually get paid for?

Poles are unfortunately very economically illiterate. They have no concept that the government is taking from them in creative ways, especially through the use of state controlled monopolies.
Atch 17 | 3,224
25 Apr 2020 #1,737
Did anybody notice that at a recent press conference the Minister for Heath said we have to wear the masks until a vaccine is developed.
cms neuf - | 1,588
25 Apr 2020 #1,738
Yes he did say that - no thought went into it and it's not enforceable for an indefinite timeline.

Food inflation will be serious.

Last night the govt said they will look again at the unemployment relief - the harshest in Europe, that's OK as a structural change but needs to be thought through and paid for - a much simpler solution is to let people go back to work !

I'm not paying my taxes until the lockdown has finished - I want to hold on to the cash and in any case I'm not receiving the main thing I pay for - education and regular health services. I imagine lots are doing the same as the govts tax incomes fell 60 billion zloty in March.

When it's finished I will pay them with interest if they insist.
johnny reb 23 | 4,497
25 Apr 2020 #1,739
Have you noticed that 25% of the deaths from this virus have been in the United States ?

will soon begin to effect the food supply.

It already has here in the U.S.
I am glad I didn't give my canning jars away as I will start canning this next week.
You think it was bad with no toilet paper......just wait.
And once the tide goes out you will see all those who have been swimming naked.
We all knew the big Recession was coming and now it is here with hyper inflation being the next step.
The virus just sped things up.
PolAmKrakow 1 | 433
25 Apr 2020 #1,740
Seven more existing restaurants or pubs listed for sale this morning in Krakow. Spoke to one owner yesterday when looking at his place, and he is practically giving it away while still doing really good take out business. A few more weeks of this, and some great places simply wont come back.

Minster of health is another politician, nothing more. He is being told what to say to keep that election happening in about 2 weeks. Nothing else matters but the election and keeping puppets in office.


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