How will BREXIT affect the immigrants in UK and Poland.

Poles don't think that way though. They believe in punitive measures.


Yes but the EU chooses to extend it to others when it's to the advantage of the European economy as a whole to do so. Thus Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway have access to the single market as does Switzerland, even though it's neither an EU nor EEA member. The UK is an important trading partner for other EU members and everyone will want to keep it that way.

True it's better to keep UK as a friend however I don't think it should be done absolutely on UK terms. You can't say you leave and then expect that you will get everything you want without giving anything in return. That was a big mislead on the leave campaign saying that EU will accept us in single market and everything will be ok without saying that it's actually in the EU hands to decide. How long did France block UK membership? Is UK convinced that no one will do it again with UK joining single market?

There are simple rules:
You don't have any ties with EU and you pay 10% on your transactions
You have some ties with EU and you have some obligations (like freedom of movement).
No one forces UK to become an EEA country. They can choose not to join. However as always in life every choice has it's consequences.


I wouldn't bet on it. Every single country can veto you. Are you sure no one will? And few officials already said that even though they want UK to be close with EU the freedom of movement is not negotiable if UK wants single market.

And that's what negotiations are for!


Since when have "rules" meant anything to Polish people? Breaking rules and bragging about it is the national sport.

I'm Irish. But the UK is very important to us and we certainly won't be veto-ing them. If anything we'll be working for keeping them involved as much as possible as it's in our interests to do so.

Sorry but even if true (and I don't agree) what it has to do with anything? Polish ppl are not side to the negotiation. It will be decided by EU politicians.


True but again it seems to me like quite a lot of public and many politicians want it to be 'access to single market without giving anything in return'. And I think they will be very disappointed. Like many politicians thought they will be able to negotiate before trigging art. 50. Didn't happen either.


Great but what about all the other countries?

Britain imports more goods from the EU than the EU exports to the UK the difference is 70 billion pounds .

The EU will have to think long and hard before it imposes punitive tariffs against the UK , Two can play that game and the biggest loser in this would be Germany, the deficit with Britain is 27 billion pounds sterling,

I'm not advocating punitive measures but I also don't understand why UK should get preferential treatment. Simple as that. And it's not as simple as import/export.

"why UK should get preferential treatment. Simple as that. And it's not as simple as import/export".

What else is important, I can only think of the financial sector, but world banks are wary of moving to Europe because of their fragile indebtedness,(see my last post), the last thing a bank would want to do is move to Europe and be forced to bail out Italian , Greek and German banks, this would happen, the Eurocrats would pass a law to do it to save their skins, (They would call it a banking tax)

I can't really see anything else that is important to negotiate.

What is "preferential" about negotiating mutually beneficial terms? It's almost as if the strongest opponents of Brexit really are admitting that the EU isn't such a good deal for prosperous western countries....

Im afraid it is. It is all about the bottom line for multinationals. A deal will be done to ensure the vast majority of trade continues as is. Billions are spent each year lobbying, the politicians are in these corps pockets, you may not like it, but thats the way of the world. German corps will not allow costly tariffs to damage their bottom lines. The exchange is already going to make things difficult for them, its a done deal to keep trade largely as is.

That's up to them. Each country has to decide what they think is in their own best interests and negotiate accordingly.

Ireland has a complex situation with the UK in regards to freedom of movement between the two countries. It's called the Common Travel Area and has existed since the 1920s, long before the EU. Neither the UK nor Ireland will want to give that up and indeed the reintroduction of any border controls between the Republic and the North is a big no-no for us. So it will be interesting to see how Ireland's position influences the final outcome for the UK. Our Taoiseach (prime minister) is meeting Merkel and Hollande in the next few days to discuss our position.

In the case of a Scottexit (from the UK) the EU might demand Scotland join Schengen which would blow that up, wouldn't it?

A few banks already said they are moving their ppl to Europe.
Companies are in UK because it's beneficial to them so if UK economy won't be as tempting as EU what do you think they will do? Why City was so much into EU? Because they know they may lose a lot. Why did the mayor of London want more independence?

I'm not saying that UK doesn't have bargain chips but it's not like it's all up to them and EU has to go with it.

And to answer what is so preferential about mutual deal- I agree but EU already said for them movement of ppl is part of the deal.

A lot depends on what UK will want to have. There are few scenarios with different kind of involvement. They have different benefits/responsibilities. I really do think EEA is the most probable outcome. But thinking they will get single market of capital and tarifs without free movement of labour is unrealistic.

They are likely to insist on that, however the treaty with Ireland is outside that.

All very messy.

The EU will want to keep things as simple as possible so I don't think that will happen. They won't want to add further complexities. If the UK was outside Schengen, then I believe the EU would honour that where Scotland was concerned.

EU might demand Scotland join Schengen,

Now that will be a good idea, a proper fenced guarded border checking every vehicle that passes through, won't be long before most business in Scotland move back to the UK, probably a good idea for Scotland to invest more in its own ferry and container ports to maintain a smooth link to Europe.

What a funny name for a Prime Minister!


Has Ireland not been in the Schengen zone in contrast to the UK so far?

It's an Irish word, it means leader or chieftain


UK isn't in Schengen.
Ireland has always wanted to be in Schengen but as is typical of Westminster dragging their heels they didn't want to and since Ireland has an obvious border with Northern Ireland, Ireland cannot join Schengen

That quote wasn't mine, peterweg, it came from Polishinvestor.

Merged: PM May a godsend for Britain just as PiS were for Poland

I never even heard of Ms May until she took over from cameron, but her initial remarks are very heartening indeed. She has gone on record as saying she did not want a Britain of privileged elites, and that's exatcly the same tack taken by Poland's pro-Polish good-change government. Looks as though Poland will have a reliable political ally in the UK.

PiS want the return of of Communism, hardly comparable, my little Marxist friend.

Essentially, BREXIT as process coming as consequence of EU economic war against Russia. This is the real angle from which things should be analyzed. In that context, Poland is secured and safe, right in this moment. Strategically. Crucial Polish loyal historical partners- Serbia and Hungary, have good relations with Russia. Serbia, together with Belarus, even founded way to bypass Russian counter measures- sanction on Polish export to Russia. So, Polish products coming in Russia via these two countries. Ultimately this situation greatly relaxing Polish-Russian relations. It is also good for Poland that Serbia improving its relations especially with Vatican and USA. That deeper strengthen Polish position. On the other side, we have situation that EU ruling establishment lost credibility to further pressing for sanction against Russia or to politically pressuring Poland, Hungary and Serbia, even any country. Also, Poland, as all Eastern European countries, have better and better relations with China. At the same time Poland took rather neutral stance on western European and USA conflict with Russia but, managing to preserve still kind of good relations with biggest EU and NATO partners.

To resume, BREXIT as it is, right now, on all fields seams to be good for Poland.

So PM May is a marxist? There is a difference between marxism and conservatism if you didn't know. Marxism insists on blind loyalty to the Communist Party, fears and tries to stamp out religion and weaken the family which it regards as tied to tradition and reactionary, so commies encourage kids to sntich on their parents for reading prohibted literature or listening to foreign broadcasts. Commies also set up all kinds of commie youth organisations like Kuroń's Waterowcy (Red Scouts) or Russia's Komsomol which indoctrinate the young form a tender an early age. They insist the communist state owns all means of produciton and control every aspect of people's lives.

Conservatives by contrast reject revolutionary political schemes as well as libertine lifestyles and espouse such traditional values as God, country and family. They also reject PC style censorship. Conservatives promote a market-style economy (capitalism), although some retain a state sector in key or stratgic areas.

What I've been able to read up on PM May, she's a reduced Maggie Thatcher incarnate, scarcely socialist, I should think:-) She prides herself according to what I've read on being fairly button-down traditional and conservative to boot.

Of course, that's obvious, but blokes like peterweg, Harry, lower-case and a few others eat, drink, breathe and fart PiS-bashing. That's all they live for, so to them any lie, distortion or slander that allows them to vent their frustration and blind hatred is good. In the States as kids we used to say about people like that: HE DOESN'T KNOW SH*T FROM SHINOLA (a brand of boot polish).

Always easier to attack without all the PERTINENT facts! "Go thou forth from the wicked man from who thou dost not perceive the lips of knowledge!"

Yes, like Maggie more conserative than regressive (c.f. Andrea Leadson, Farage, the current lot in Poland). Nevertheless some of her cabinet appointments are to say the least, exotic.

Her speech about privileged elites was just politician's bluster; she and her husband are personally extremely wealthy and very little of her voting record in parliament has helped the poor in any way - in fact much of what she's supported has been damaging.

She is no friend of Poland or Poles in the UK, though on social issues she does have a few redeeming features.

Namely?

Only a very few...

Mostly social issues like marriage equality. And she was campaigning for Remain.

I see now, thanks! Immigration though may well be her Achilles heel:-)