back then it was still possible for the russians to be readmitted into the ranks of humanity.
that would have been the worst possible outcome, for us:
1) the west would have been seen as having "won". this would be seen by our "near abroad", and also by china, iran, india, and the rest.
georgia would again become restless, kazakhstan would continue to spin off into a more distant orbit, and so on and so forth.
2) we would still get sanctioned, probably to the very same extent. the sanctions would similarly be in place forever, with nothing to show for it except a failed invasion.
3) with exactly nothing to show, nobody would talk to us. right now, we're being courted by china and india daily, so that they may be chosen as peace mediators (they want this for their own prestige). we have the head of the cia setting up frequent meetings with his counterpart in russia. we have the europeans making us various proposals, about what we could get if we withdraw from ukraine.
if we had nothing to bargain about, nobody would talk to us. it would be back to the "gas station with nuclear weapons" narrative.
4) a failed invasion would precisely reinforce the idea that russia is a "gas station masquerading as a country". newspaper headlines would read, "russia sheds last vestiges of soviet power". everybody that had been sh*tting on russia for thirty years as "irrelevant", would have been proven right.
now, instead, all those people have been fired from their positions, or spend great energy explaining how they managed to so severely underestimate russia. russian is again a popular language at us colleges, and the russian department within the state department has regained its prestige. russia will be a focus of world attention, because of this war.
5) every day, we would be living in a world where joseph r. biden is considered a global genius. with the masterful stroke of leaking russia's war invasion plans, and then building a global coalition, he stopped what could have been the greatest war since ww2 in its tracks. that's what they would say.
no, dear korvinus, it would already be too late. it's either we did not do this invasion at all, or once we did we had to commit to it fully.
the war has served many purposes (though at enormous cost). just like in syria and kosovo, it showed the world that while others might be too scared to even make a sound, russia will act - ruining the plans of our "enlightened masters". it showed that ignoring russia and treating it as a non entity is an expensive way to proceed with business. it shows our allies that we have the will to back up our words with actions.
finally it shows the ukrainians the price of thirty years of taunts. i'm sure even the most committed banderist is sitting and scratching his head right now, thinking "was this really all worth it?".
