Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 15

.....yeah....the feelings were there....nobody can fake that!

somehow Switzerland manages to exist with 4 official languages - why can't Estonia have 2

or maybe why can't Estonia be like this:

In the Basque Country, students are taught in Basque and in Spanish. Both are official languages in the Basque Autonomous Region. Each school according to its Linguistic Project establishes its working language and the language option that it intends to offer.


from a specific point of view the extermination of hundreds of thousands of Poles who were citizens of the USSR in the late 30's (but before the WW2) on Stalin's order was "a pragmatic statecraft"

It always was .Its physical spread was huge, but it tended to be in the northwest, the least densely populated part of Western Europe, even today. Though it's actually great that you've read up on it. Scotland is a fascinating place. My favourite bit is the western bit of the borders for personal/family reasons. If you've not looked, I recommend reading about the "Debatable Lands" (pronounced counterintuitively; the bat in debatable rhymes with cat).


Thank God for Grindr. The young don't know what they're missing...

The aftertaste? Not always so foul ;-)

Reminds me of using the gents in a near deserted part of Basra Airport. When I entered, two policeman in full uniform were coming out of a cubicle, one fastening his bulging trousers, and the other one wiping his mouth.


Makes a lot of sense. Smaller/poorer counties are more vulnerable, hence alliances, and the appalling "might is right" attitude of r*SSia is always about crushing the weak. Unfortunately for r*SSia, the bully has found out that their intended victim has a very strong and very clever circle of friends.

If you went into a North Nigerian town and asked the scruffy "citizens" (actually powerless robots) if it would be Ok to invade Estonia, the majority would say yes.

Only about 30 percent would say it was a bad idea.

yuck, and covid come just after that - coincidence?
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Switzerland is Switzerland and Estonia is Estonia.

You are being dramatic and jump from one extreme to the other. Estonia doesn't exterminated Russians and does not plan on doing so, there is no need for drama and useless sentimentalism.
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I don't know and don't want to know. Sometimes too much information is no good.
I have a different issue I'm suddenly into young ladies (in their 20'), it has to be a midlife crisis or something.
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It is the Russian narrative that the war is futile so the west needs to stop providing Ukraine what it needs to defend itself so Russia can win.

The Western narrative is the Russia is not going to give up on its attempts to seize control of Ukraine in the long term, even if there are any temporary halts in fighting, so Ukraine must be provided what they need to defend themselves. And the only way to decisively end the conflict on a shorter time frame is to significantly increase the support Ukraine is receiving.

My narrative is bomb Russian troops in Ukraine NOW until there are no more Russian troops in Ukraine.

The West's concern over escalation has been incorrect, as Putin will back down rather than face destruction. That is what he has always done historically. That western politicians lack a proper backbone has been my greatest disappointment with them during this conflict.

I am afraid that even a big country like the US will lose its sense of nationalism - as if nationalism was bad.

The logic is very simple. In a homogenous country like Poland, its natural to a nationalist and be ready to defend it.

In a multicultural swamp like the US where immigrants are quickly becoming the majority, to convince a man to enlist and die in some shithole 10,000 miles away is soon going to be very hard.

From his perspective he will be putting his life on the line for:

1 The hostile government that is spending this country intro bankruptcy.
2. 40 million illegals
3. 80 million morons who voted for Biden and will vote for his DEI sidekick
4. LGBT weirdos

...and I am just scratching the surface...

and this is why I believe so for the most part (which mostly repeats what PolAmKrakow stated here more than once): Ukraine is getting out of the cannon fodder (also called conscripts) - the time when Ukraine had new volunteers to join the fight is long gone with all the consequences thereof

Unlike russians who are afraid to publicly disagree with their psychotic, paranoid leaders.... supporters of Ukraine don't idolize political leaders and I know there's been a lot of criticism in Ukraine about the the visit in seeming to be campaigning for Harris (terrible stupid candidate who cares nothing about Ukraine) though Trump is also a terrible stupid candidate who cares nothing about Ukraine.... so it's choice terrible, unreliable allies....

Of the two Trump is possible slightly better since he did more for Ukraine than Clinton, Bush and Obama put together... but there's no real connection between what he says and what he does so...

yeah, it shows in the recruit numbers and how they relate to recruitment goals of the US military - I guess it doesn't help if their recruitment campaigns emphasize the LGBT friendly nature of the current American military and the service

Correct analysis.

Ukraine's problems in order of priority:

1) Lack of manpower. Add to this, systemic issues with recruitment and training.

2) Stiff, Soviet-style command structure that does not encourage initiative by commanders on the ground (same as us).

3) A culture of fear around reporting unpleasant news up the chain (just like Russia).

4) Absence of a systemic approach to analyzing and internalizing errors of past operations

5) Insufficient and chronically delayed Western aid

6) Lack of permission to strike targets deep inside Russia with long range weapons provided by the West

7) A rapidly deteriorating economic situation.

8) A growing political crisis

9) A looming demographic collapse

What problems does russia have?

You mean besides being full of russians?

what did Trump actually do for Ukraine? - it's not an anti-Trump insult since I would much prefer Trump as the next US president - I'm genuinely curious since I don't recall any particular thing that Trump did for Ukraine (I just don't follow American news that much) - I know about certain Trump's actions relating Poland and Germany since these were reported on TVP

Sold them weapons after W and Obama consistently refused is a big one.... a Ukrainian told me more (that amounts to basically keeping putain at home).

Trump's whole thing is not looking bad and wanting to be liked... Zelenskyy did what he had to do (tell trump how great he was) to get some pro-Ukraine policies out of him.

putain would never do that, he always tries to humiliate allies (like humiliating Xi after his visit to russia). putain would make vague statements and then while the meeting was going on he'd be bombing childrens' hospitals in Ukraine at the same time.

oh, I never heard about it - thanks for the info

Again, in order of priority:

1) Self imposed manpower constraints (predicated on Putin's political fears related to a new wave of mobilization)

2) Issues with command and control, morale, and training. Broadly similar to Ukraine's problems. Because we are much bigger, we can easier "absorb" these problems, however.

3) Restricted access to Western dual-use technologies.

4) A deteriorating economic outlook.

That's all I can think of.

Generally speaking - Ukraine and Russia have very similar problems - on surface level. If we have problems exporting oil/gas & metals, they have problems with grain and other agri produce. If we have problems importing Western tech, they have problems importing Chinese tech. We need to find ways to plug our budget deficits through new issuances of bonds or raiding Gazprom and friends' treasuries, and they need to find ways of plugging their budget holes through soliciting new tranches of Western financial aid.

The problem for Ukraine is that all these problems are much more exacerbated than they are in Russia; this is due to their smaller size, their total dependence on outside help, and an overall greater fragility in the economic and political spheres.

In Russia, we say - «Пока толстый сохнет, худой сдохнет». Translated, this means, "While a fat man withers, a thin man perishes".

Russia's accumulated fat and muscle mass means that it can last much, much longer than emaciated Ukraine.

I think Putin realizes the war is not going so well for Russia; the economy suffers; people may get fed up if they will have to endure some real hardships; so I'm quite convinced he wants to end the war as soon as possible without losing his face (which I delved into a bit more in one of my previous posts) - that's why I think beefing up the Ukrainian military with new long range missiles won't help end this war, quite the contrary I think - I know I'm repeating myself but I think Ukrainians need to realise Zelensky's plan to drive Russians back is not realistic

I think Putin believes that if he loses his face someone (some group) could decide to hmm replace him - but he probably also fears some kind of popular revolt might erupt if things go worse in the economy and war losses accumulate over some tipping point - I don't think the US government wants another revolution in Russia these days, either (think bits of the Russian nuclear arsenal ending in the hands of say muslim terrorists)

At least everybody in the West finally understood this. The only exception is the crazy Balts. Even the Poles and Czechs have accepted reality - witness Sikorsky's recent statements.

These past few weeks, the Western press has been hammering poor Ukraine. The "high" from the Kursk operation, seems to have been short lasting.

In the past 48 hrs, it was the Wall Street Journal and The Economist which took a big steaming dump on Zelensky's approach.

You will enjoy this Gumishu... quoting from the Economist:

"If Mr Zelensky continues to defy reality by insisting that Ukraine's army can take back all the land Russia has stolen since 2014, he will drive away Ukraine's backers and further divide Ukrainian society. Whether or not Mr Trump wins in November, the only hope of keeping American and European support and uniting Ukrainians is for a new approach that starts with leaders stating honestly what victory means."

Source: economist.com/leaders/2024/09/26/the-war-is-going-badly-ukraine-and-its-allies-must-change-course

The Economist is one of the most Russophobic publications I know of, so it's quite a surprise to read that they want Zelensky to start being "realistic".

The Wall Street Journal, said that their conversations with senior European and American officials shows that nobody takes Zelensky's "Peace Plan" seriously. Everyone understands that it's impossible to kick Russia out of Ukraine.

Everybody except Zelensky, it seems.

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But you know, it doesn't have to be like this. Fu*ck off from Ukraine and maybe some politician will get rid of Zelensky. After all most Ukrainian presidential elections produced new leaders. Unlike the Russian elections which, with the notable exception of Yeltsin, always produced more Monke.

They are not crazy. They are aware that without pushing Russia back, they are for grabs, sooner or later.

Yes perhaps.

Earlier it was easier for them, because Poland, Czechia, and for some very strange reason Finland and Sweden, fully supported their camp.

It was much harder for Washington and Berlin to ignore their moaning.

Now they seem like radicals insisting on an unrealistic hardline approach, which sabotages the diplomatic efforts of the same Washington and Berlin.

What helped this, was Poland having two epic fights with Ukraine - first over grain, and now over historic massacres. Then, also, was the peeling off of other Slavic former supporters - Slovakia after the election of Fico, Czechia after I don't know exactly what, and then less importantly Croatia and Bulgaria.

Now the stupid Balts are only irritating people, with their constant hyperbole about "Russia is gonna come for us, and then for you!!!".

These tiny countries should realize that they are no Qatar or Singapore, but instead little warts on our ass. Their diplomatic weight is slightly less than zero. America used them to wipe its ass, and now it is ready to flush them down the toilet.

I think these fears are not quite grounded in reality - even though some of Russian internal propagandists rattle sabers I very much doubt Putin's plan is (or even ever was) to conquer back the Balts, not to mention the former Warsaw Pact satelites - Ukraine is symbolically different in that regard as it was always thought of by Russians as part of the Velikaya Rus' (being the cradle of the Russian statehood after all)

why I think Putin never meant to conquer Balts back: because he never said so - while he often made comments about Ukraine being an artificial state - and I think we should mark his words more as they establish Russian foreign policy as long as he is in power

Czechs are more realistically minded people than Poles for example - they also fear Russia much less than Poles or the Balts since they don't border you (somehow a couple of hundreds of Abramses and a couple of dozens of American fighter jets in Polish hands feels reassuring to the Czech leaders)

Bollox!

I don't trust Czechs as much as I trust Slowaks.

"Trust" is relevant only if somebody makes an uncollaterized promise.

I don't recall Czechs making any promises.

I can easily recall how Estland and Livonia were bought by Peter the Great for real money from the Swedes (and that money was paid in full), and then gained independence from the Bolsheviks, who refused legal succession to the Russian Empire (i.e. they were essentially giving away what didn't belong to them). And now, when Estonia is hovering over St. Petersburg in the range of even not too long-range missile weapons, behaving defiantly brazenly (including on the issue of the rights of the Russian-speaking population), and inventing some astronomical amounts of damage incurred during the "occupation", they are afraid to the point of spasmodic sphincters that they will be asked to address questions about their declaration of independence directly to Lenin, and the successors of the owners will come to collect their purchased land, for which financial issues have not been settled. ;)

Speaking about "occupation"...

Even the US State Department doesn't say that Russia "occupies" Donbass because if they did, all self-determination referenda would be out the window.

Well done, Russia...

Back in the PRL days.... that might be the case.

Things have reverse and now Poland has better relations with Czechia than with Slovakia (which went down the Orban pro-russian road).

Do keep up....