The BEST Guide to POLAND
Unanswered  |  Archives 
 
 
User: Guest

Home / News  % width posts: 433

Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 11


Bobko 25 | 1,959
13 May 2024 #1
At the same time... I think the "China provides lethal aid" part could be a game changer that would potentially allow a complete swallowing of Ukraine.

I need to actually read the entire report to understand what RAND thinks about Chinese lethal aid.
Velund 1 | 527
13 May 2024 #2
what RAND thinks about Chinese lethal aid.

Better read what RAND thinks about de-nazification. Because conflict already passed to the stage where leaving even square kilometer of territory under nazi regime is impossible. (Part of) ukraine may left only as constitutionally neutral, non-block country (i.e. the same what was recognized by Russia in 1991) without any nazi activists in power. Only option - end of Austro-Hungarian "ukraine" project finally, without chance for restoration.
Velund 1 | 527
14 May 2024 #3
A small task on futurology:

The starting points:

2022 - At the end of August, Nord Stream was shut down for maintenance, during which the last gas compressor in operation at the time was found to be defective. Gas pumping through the pipeline was not resumed. The repair was not possible, because Canada had imposed sanctions that made it impossible to take the units back from repair, and Canada was the only place where repairs were technically possible.

The transfer of contracted supplies to the only survivor of the terrorist attacks, the second NS-2 pipe, was also denied, which made ordering Russian analogs of Rolls Royse/Siemens replacement gas compressors pointless.

02/28/2024 - The European Commission (EC) is actively working to completely cut off Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, European Commission spokesman Tim McPhee said.

Day before yesterday - Rob Bauer, head of NATO's military committee, announced that Putin had "ordered the gas tap closed" to inflict economic damage on the people of Western Europe.

Yesterday - Biden signed legislation to ban Russian uranium imports into the US

Task:

- Guess the date when Putin will be blamed for the collapse of US nuclear power infrastructure and the name of the clown who will announce it.
Torq 7 | 708
14 May 2024 #4
a complete swallowing of Ukraine

...which would trigger (of course, before Ukraine collapse - strategic depth and all that) Polish-Russian war and introduce many, perhaps too many, unknowns to all the plans and equations.

As far as the RAND report is concerned, I think Cold War 2.0 would probably be the most favorable outcome for Poland...

Cold War 2.0

... as it would achieve our long term goal of restricting Russia's activities mainly to Asia, where they would have to eventually turn into a Chinese semi-client (this 'semi-' bit is important) state and effectively stop being a threat to our independence, and putting Poland in place of Germany as the most important player in the NATO defensive strategy in Europe.

Long lasting stability would require one more factor that RAND report seems to be missing - taking Belarus out of Russian influence zone and making it a part of the safety buffer together with Ukraine. It would be expensive but money for such vital projects will have to be found. So, effectively we would have two safety buffers: Belarus-Ukraine closer to Russia, and Intermarium (with nuclear Poland) as the ultimate shield of Europe. Everything would seem to point in this direction.

The most important thing is that in any scenario we avoid the "Reverse Kissinger" disaster (i.e. USA and Russia alliance against China).

a game changer

There have been many game changers up to date that actually already happened. Among the most important ones is the joining of NATO by Finland and Sweden - extending the front and practically rendering Russian Baltic Fleet useless. It also allows Poland to concentrate on building up our land army, as naval duties in the Baltic will fall on our allies whilst we can limit ourselves to on-shore rocket batteries. Unfortunately, we are already getting three Miecznik project frigates - it's too advanced to give up now - so we will have some redundant naval force. Oh, well... the frigates will look nice on national holidays celebrations or something *rolls eyes*

Another game changer is the fact that Ukraine showed that a superpower (2nd rate but still) can be stopped in a direct, conventional war by a middle-sized country. Of course, we can argue that we already knew this ever since Vietnam or Afghanistan, but this is a bit different. We have a middle-sized country stopping an alleged superpower in a direct, conventional, all-out land war. If this is possible, then achieving the same by a coalition of middle-sized/small countries is also possible (i.e. Intermarium).

In any case, Ukraine needs to be reinforced and the numbers you gave (which suggested the possible collapse of the Ukrainian Front) - if they are accurate - should prompt NATO (and definitely Intermarium which is threatened the most) to think of additional ways of further strengthening AFU.

Of course, we have to remember about the issue of Królewiec (there's money to be spend on it too), and eventually even reinforcing Russia so that they don't collapse too soon, and the US is already thinking about it (but that's a longer perspective and you won't read about the details of it in open reports on the internet), so don't worry, Bobi, the USA themselves will help you so that you don't fall into pieces. :) We don't want China too strong either.

Anyways, my little scenario from the previous part of this thread (yes, I have too much time on my hands recently :)) asssumed 0% NATO response and 0% USA response in case of the Polish-Russian war, and still it gave us an acceptable chance of success. It was, of course, only mental gymnastics (as Crow would say). ;)
Torq 7 | 708
14 May 2024 #5
And one last thing that is positive in all this is that Russia still treats Poland as an object, not a subject, of international politics. I don't know how many times Veli said in this thread (I mean all the previous 10 parts) - and I have a feeling that he expresses common conviction in Russia - that Poland is not an independent country, that our elites cannot decide anything on their own, that we are Anglo-Saxon lapdogs blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda :)

This is, of course, mildly amusing but being severely underestimated is also very beneficial for our overt and covert actions.

All in all, we are - paradoxically - going back to the time when European peace/stability was decided without Russia by Jagiellons/Habsburgs (i.e. Intermarium these days). And this all happens because Russia thinks we are lapdog retards, unable to conduct our own policies. :) It is never good to believe your own propaganda, ребята.
OP Bobko 25 | 1,959
14 May 2024 #6
We have a middle-sized country stopping an alleged superpower in a direct, conventional, all-out land war.

Oh stop it...

Ukraine was supported by 40+ rich countries, including the richest country in the world. As people here love to remind me - with 20X the economic potential of Russia.

Without the West we really would take Kiev in 3 days, and likely the entire war would have lasted weeks. I don't think this is a controversial thing to say.

one last thing that is positive in all this is that Russia still treats Poland as an object, not a subject, of international politics

Unfortunately yes. Not many Polonophiles like me, but still a lot.

It is, however, hard to see how any of the EU countries can be viewed as fully sovereign. You quite literally cannot do many things without consultation with the rest.

When it comes to the security sphere, it's the same.

So it's not just Russian "perception", but at least to some extent a reflection of actual reality.

Not saying it's good or bad, but it is what it is. Poland is probably better off within NATO and EU, than outside, but that's the price.

Even America does not feel fully independent within NATO (at times). For France, it's somewhat of a national obsession to hate on NATO. Britain left the EU, through some misguided hope for greater latitude in decision making.

Not hating or discounting Poland. It applies to the rest as well, who are wealthier and larger too.
jon357 74 | 22,347
14 May 2024 #7
Without the West we really would take Kiev in 3 days

That was before any support was received. And r*SSia failed.
OP Bobko 25 | 1,959
14 May 2024 #8
Not so.

Zelensky did not believe the invasion was happening up to about 24-48 hrs before.

At that point the Americans finally began to share the most sensitive intelligence.

This allowed the Ukrainians to move forces out from their permanent basing positions and deploy them forward.

This allowed them to anticipate the landing at Hostomel airport, which is probably the most decisive moment in the entire history of this war.

Zelensky not fleeing (which would have almost certainly led to a rapid political collapse), was also a result of Western pressure/reassurances - we now know.

A huge portion of Ukraine's secret services and other key decision makers had been working for Russia for years and months, and on the morning of the invasion they disappeared. Others were also positioned.

The UA government surviving that initial crisis, and not collapsing, is 200% a result of Western efforts.

The war may have been poorly planned and executed, but in those crucial first days it was still a coin flip.
cms neuf 1 | 1,737
14 May 2024 #9
Do you seriously think the chaos of your attack on Hostomel was down to US help ?

It was the normal story of the North Nigerian military - poor organization, poor equipment and alcohol.

God knows who convinced Putler that it had a chance of working - I imagine they are breaking rocks in Siberia now
jon357 74 | 22,347
14 May 2024 #10
Zelensky not fleeing

As he said himself, he wants ammunition not a ride.

One day there will be statues to that guy in Kyiv.

portion of Ukraine's secret services and other key decision makers had been working for Russia

Traitors who will certainly be punished
OP Bobko 25 | 1,959
14 May 2024 #11
As he said himself, he wants ammunition not a ride.

That's been proven a lie, sorry.

A clever bit of political theater from this former comedian, however.

Zelensky did not flee, because he received assurances he would not be touched.

Serious people had discussions, and decided it was not worth it. Clown and friends came up with, "I need ammunition, not a ride".

If you don't believe me - then Google is your friend.

Nobody cared to kill him, so his heroics are null and void. Until he received those assurances he was sitting in utter panic in the basement of the presidential administration.

Israelis did him dirty leaking all these things, of course, but we are grateful to them.



cms neuf 1 | 1,737
14 May 2024 #12
Your evidence is something that Putler said ?

An assurance from a thieving murderer ?

Yes he is an ex comedian - he had a job. Putler's jobs ? KGB agent, grafting local politician, murdering dictator (who himself fled when threatened by a drunk chef with a handful of armored cars)
OP Bobko 25 | 1,959
14 May 2024 #13
Your evidence is something that Putler said ?

Ehrm... the source is the former prime minister of Israel.

It's 2024 outside now and Zelensky is still alive.

Not one missile was aimed at the Ukrainian presidential administration, or practically any government building in central Kiev.

Honestly I don't know why I respond to you. It's somewhat done mechanically, on autopilot. But just in case you forgot - you are a magical specimen of idiot.

God bless you.

-----

For non-Neuf persons... did you know that Zelensky requests his Western partners to contact the Russians to let them know whenever he is traveling to some frontline site - so we don't accidentally kill him?

Did you know that all Western politicians that visit Ukraine, inform us ahead of time through the Americans (sometimes others), so we don't accidentally bomb them? How humiliating is that for Ukraine, haha!
jon357 74 | 22,347
14 May 2024 #14
That's been proven a lie, sorry.

It most certainly hasn't. Stop your orc propaganda.

Not one missile was aimed at the Ukrainian presidential administration

They tried to kill him at least a dozen times with 'elite' squads of assassins, all of them now decomposing nicely.

Did you know that all Western politicians that visit Ukraine, inform us

Bullsh1t
OP Bobko 25 | 1,959
14 May 2024 #15
The most hilarious part, is that on those rare occasions where there is a close-by strike - the Ukrainians become ecstatic and do everything to convince everyone we did it with intent.

Something like that happened in Odessa during a visit by the Greek prime minister.

The Greeks later came out with a statement that they have no reason to think that Russia actively tried to target their prime minister.

After this, Clown and Co. quickly shut their traps, and went back to sulking.

If there wasn't a horrible war going on there, you could make a funny television series about this current government. Oh wait...

It most certainly hasn't

Wow, that's an amazing argument! How did I not think of that?

Bullsh1t

Another excellent point.
jon357 74 | 22,347
14 May 2024 #16
The Greeks later came out with a statement that they have no reason to think that Russia actively tried to target their prime minister.

They probably did.

Enough of your orc propaganda.

Clown and Co. quickly shut their traps

Putler and his gang rarely shut their traps.

A forum about Poland, and it's infested by orcs 24/7. Fortunately they change nobody's opinion.
cms neuf 1 | 1,737
14 May 2024 #17
How many times has Putler visited the front line ?

There was one possibly fake visit about a year ago.

Rest of the time he is cowering in his bunker

And yet you called Zelensky a coward
Torq 7 | 708
14 May 2024 #18
Ukraine was supported by 40+ rich countries

Out of which 90% were reluctant to offer any help whatsoever, and the fact that 5-6 countries were able to offer substantial material help later was only due to the fact that Ukraine weathered the storm and offered surprisingly strong resistance. Sure, it was close: if Ukrainian companies north of Kiev didn't organize themselves in all the chaos at the beginning of the war, if Ukrainian light infantry wasn't so stubborn and, let's give credit where credit is due, heroic in their defense of small towns and connecting roads, if Hostomel airport was taken, if AFU hadn't kept operational unity after the initial strike, if you managed to capture/kill Zelensky - if, if, if, if, if...

At that point the Americans finally began to share the most sensitive intelligence.

Of course they did. But that's just characteristic of modern war. You cannot do anything in secret. Space reconnaissance is vital and, together with drones, changes the nature of land war irreversibly - gathering large panzer forces is a nightmare, flanking or any kind of manoeuvering becomes increasingly difficult, almost impossible. Why do you think Polish Space Agency exists? We want to fly to Mars? :)

It's 2024 outside now and Zelensky is still alive.

One of many (probably too many) bilateral US-Russia agreements connected with this war. Which doesn't mean that you didn't try to kill him at the beginning - there was a confirmed fire exchange between Zelensky's bodyguards and Russian commandoes in Kiev at the beginning of the war.

You quite literally cannot do many things without consultation with the rest.

Name three :)

EU is not Soviet Union. It's not even Warsaw Pact where unruly members could just be invaded like Hungary or Czechoslovakia.

Being EU members didn't stop PiS from sh*tting on most EU main policies. Sure they faced financial consequences but they weren't kicked out of the union and could conduct independent policies. It doesn't stop Hungary now. Being NATO members for over 20 years back then didn't stop Turkey from invading Cyprus and won't stop Greek-Turkish war if it ever comes to that.

The fact is, Russia thinks in Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact terms when it comes to the EU/NATO and disregards Poland's independence in conducting her own policies to the point of ridiculousness (but, as I said before, being underestimated is generally a good thing for Poland).
Crow 159 | 9,023
14 May 2024 #19
EU is not Soviet Union. It's not even Warsaw Pact

Thanks to Russia, if we are to be honest. Bonn and Paris just nicely controlled it and were moving things in ``right`` direction, then Russia started to ``complicate`` and resistance to stronger unification within the EU weakened and will continue to weaken, until EU is no more.
Torq 7 | 708
14 May 2024 #20
It was the normal story of the North Nigerian military - poor organization, poor equipment and alcohol.

As I said before, it's never good to believe one's own propaganda, Cms. :)

We have tons of information about Russian army from this war and I wouldn't sum them up with "poor organization, poor equipment and alcohol". One could point out mistakes in organisation but war is, by and large, chaos - so many changing factors that need to be taken into account that I wouldn't judge Russian army too harshly. Even American tank columns sometimes stood in the desert of Iraq in 2003 for the lack of fuel. Miscalculating happens in logistics--excel spreadsheets don't always work with 100% accuracy in combat conditions. :) What you, my dear children, lack is basic military training and understanding. That's why we should bring back conscription. Guys from my generation (40-50) won't live forever, you know.

My estimation of Russian armed forces in this conflict is quite high. They showed very decent technical abilities and skillful engineering forces, and I am absolutely enchanted with Russian artillery (luckily, not just me, as Polish army purchases show). I don't want to say too much because it would turn Veli's and Kostya's heads too much haha but believe me, Cms, Russian army is quite decent (to put it mildly). Besides, they learn quickly and adapt quickly to most things we throw against them. That causes respect.

Luckily, they do have weak points, and we know exactly what they are. I mentioned one of them (infantry) but it's far from wise to talk about your enemy's weaknesses too much.

Dzieci, dzieci... :)
cms neuf 1 | 1,737
14 May 2024 #21
Which branch are you especially impressed with ?

Special forces ? LOL, the best comedy since Police Academy Mission to Moscow
The Navy - all but finished as a global force with both the Black Sea and Baltic closed
The Air Force - still in the canteen drinking vodka and awaiting orders
The Army - 3 months to move Gerasimov's drinks cabinet 2km closer to Kiev
Torq 7 | 708
14 May 2024 #22
Which branch are you especially impressed with ?

I've just told you.

LOL

If you wish to continue in this vein, then - by all means - knock yourself out, but forgive me if I just ignore it.
Crow 159 | 9,023
14 May 2024 #23
Poles don`t need to waste themselves and Poland in this war against Russia. Poles could say NO to war. NO to their politicians, NO to NATO, NO to EU, NO to Vatican.
Torq 7 | 708
14 May 2024 #24
Poland in this war against Russia.

Let's hope it won't come to that. Polish-Russian war would make what we observe in Ukraine now look like a kindergarten brawl.

Poles could say NO to war.

Who do you think we are? Some f*cking hippies? ;)
Crow 159 | 9,023
14 May 2024 #25
Let's hope it won't come to that. Polish-Russian war would make what we observe in Ukraine now look like a kindergarten brawl.

I agree. With addition of certain use of tactical nukes, what would be just small step from the use of ICBM`s.

Plus, as Russia announced, when their calculated casualties in soldiers reach some level that Russia consider to be `red level`, Russia would start using ICBM`s no matter situation on front is generally pessimistic or optimistic for Russia at that particular moment.

Who do you think we are? Some f*cking hippies? ;)

I just thinks that Poles needs to avoid to take part in this war. In its entirety, its Drang Nach Osten. Its abominable that Poland goes against Russia. If you aren`t on the side of Russia they you should be out of war. Neutral at least.
cms neuf 1 | 1,737
14 May 2024 #26
I am the only person talking sense Torq

What were their war aims ?

Swift airborne capture of airport followed by tank advance into Kiev - dismal failure
Control of Black Sea - fail
Rapid advance in South - worked originally but soon pushed out of Kherson
Infantry advance in East - slower than molasses, with very high losses of equipment and men.

And you think' they are doing well because the reverted to WW1 artillery tactics
Torq 7 | 708
14 May 2024 #27
certain use of tactical nukes, what would be just small step from the use of ICBM`s

Then it's a good thing that we sh*t on their nukes. But I probably mentioned that already. :)

when their calculated casualties in soldiers reach some level that Russia consider to be `red level`, Russia would start using ICBM`s no matter situation on front

I really don't believe that's Russian official policy on the use of nuclear weapons. If it is, then we can all stop worrying now because the planet Earth is f*cked already and we can prepare for the life to come. :)
Crow 159 | 9,023
14 May 2024 #28
I really don't believe that's Russian official policy on the use of nuclear weapons.

All point to it. More or less even openly said.

See, at one point the rich USA magnates would need to decide would this become global nuclear war. Because Russia would secure its victory in Europe.

If you ask me, that is why Britain abandoned the EU. They knew it will come to this. AUCUS is one more signal that Anglos won`t destroy themselves in Drang Nach Osten. After all, its Rome/Vatican, France and Germany that always initiated Drang Nach Osten. We Slavs are fine with Anglos, if they don`t mistake.
mafketis 37 | 10,848
14 May 2024 #29
Zelensky did not believe the invasion was happening up to about 24-48 hrs before.

So many people thought that russia was sane (myself included) and not a psychotic death cult....

Greeks later came out with a statement that they have no reason to think that Russia actively tried to target their prime minister.

meta-message: russians are vile evil boobs but they're also fundamentally incompetent.... (like praising a down kid for not cr@pping in his pants oops.... too soon... Corky! When will you ever learn?)
Crow 159 | 9,023
14 May 2024 #30
@mafketis

My comment on your presented wisdom... Woe to you and your wits.


Home / News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 11